What are the Chances of a Crypto Winter?

[pitham1]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

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[dead_m92]

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

[1quacker]

Likely - and a good thing! The market needs to cool off and find some solid levels of support. Slow and steady growth is best, but we all know that won't happen with bitcoin, so just more bubbles popping and blowing!

[MiningSensei]

You are right with those charts, we really need to see a good dip on the market if we want to keep seeing bitcoin at a high rate, but if a bearish trend happens then it would mean that probably in some weeks or maybe days the price is going to recover and go much more up again.
But who knows.. the price is only going up at the moment, and it looks that it will keep going by that way for much more time from now.

[omnik]

You are right with those charts, we really need to see a good dip on the market if we want to keep seeing bitcoin at a high rate, but if a bearish trend happens then it would mean that probably in some weeks or maybe days the price is going to recover and go much more up again.
But who knows.. the price is only going up at the moment, and it looks that it will keep going by that way for much more time from now.

Bearish will be happening after the hardfork and that's my thought about the next track for the bitcoin chart. More people are gonna playing with the bitcoin gold caused by it's only trade in those are supporting the bitcoin gold trade.

[aardvark15]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

We need to be prepared for a crash because it’s always a possibility. I think all of us that have been around long enough understand that Bitcoin is a high risk investment. I would assume that the risk is gradually dropping over time but it isn’t anywhere near a mainstream currency right now. It has a long way to go to achieve mainstream adoption.

[FiendCoin]

We may dip in the near future and have a few down months but the bull market will continue afterwards and Bitcoin will exceed 10k+ by spring of 2018.

Don't fear the dips or down months, the clouds will part, the sun will shine again and the moon will be within reach.

[Reatim]

We may dip in the near future and have a few down months but the bull market will continue afterwards and Bitcoin will exceed 10k+ by spring of 2018.

Don't fear the dips or down months, the clouds will part, the sun will shine again and the moon will be within reach.

Ok. So there's always a light at the end of the tunnel. I guess dip is just a normal part specially bitcoin ecosystem. We may have been enjoying the best years, but when you look at the past, there's a lot of crypto winter that occurred already, but we have surpassed it. And if ever they come again, it will be temporary and the sun will shine on our side again.

[pooya87]

whenever they talk about 2013 and bubble and the x% rise of that time they neglect to talk about the fact that Mt Gox (which had the Willie bot hard at work) was controlling nearly all the market. i once calculated the volume back then and it was 75%-80% of the daily trading volume of bitcoin. that is a worthy mention to keep in mind.

besides what people may call "winter" i call summer sale where there are great discounts that you can use to fill your cold storages with more bitcoin before the rise starts again.

[panju1]

We may dip in the near future and have a few down months but the bull market will continue afterwards and Bitcoin will exceed 10k+ by spring of 2018.

Don't fear the dips or down months, the clouds will part, the sun will shine again and the moon will be within reach.

10k by spring of 2018? I won't complain if that happens, but I don't think it is likely. if we have a trigger like Goldman Sachs entering the crypto market, or an ETF getting approved, then that may act as a trigger.

[Wind_FURY]

What are the Chances of a Crypto Winter?

If everything stays the same after the hard fork on November and Segwit2x becomes the altcoin. Low chance.

Do you really believe that the market will suddenly crash so low and stay there to cause a "crypto winter" right now? Bitcoin keeps breaking new highs. If some of you are looking for a sign if we are "going to the moon" or not, it is right there in front of you.

$5900 = 1 Bitcoin.

[YuginKadoya]

This will be an impending possibility for the coming Hard Fork and when it did certain crash can be felt by all bitcoin enthusiast but even if it did it will still goes up when the Hard Fork event come in past so expect a sudden spike going down, you can sure prepare for it until that happen convert your bitcoin with fiat if you think bitcoin reach the limit it will rise, or sell your bitcoin, or you can put it in a wallet that has a private key so you can claim the free coin from it.

[Kyraishi]

crypto "summer" usually seem to come 1 year after halving and winter is 2 years after halving. So if the trend follows 2013, then yes, a crypto winter could be extremely likely by the time 2018 and 2019 comes by.

However even if there was a crypto winter where every coin crashes in a major way, it won't be as bad as 2013 in my opinion.

Markets have matured for that.

[Denker]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

Today we know Mt.Gox with Willi Bot probably, very likely manipulated the price in late 2013! And as Mt. Gox had 75% of all the volume, a crash and long bear phase seemed likely at that time.
Now 4 years later the market has changed so much.The whole ecosystem around Bitcoin has seen tremendous growth. And big institutional money wants to get in asap!! We've so many exchanges now and the adoption rate and general awareness was amazing this year.
Therefore a bear market which lasts longer than just 2-4 or 6 months is hard to imagine imo.
And a real fucked up scenario I only could imagine if for instance that Tether rumors, which are spreaded a few months now by one guy, should indeed be true.

[hase0278]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

This time it is different with the manipulated price back in 2013. Price increase as of the moment is genuine and is backed up by demand generated from adoption. Still, I believe that a crypto winter will soon happen for a different reason other than mt. Gox similar story. History might not completely repeat itself but the probability of another big dump which mighe be referred as the second biggest downward trend in btc history is not that high but it isn't not that low either.

[HeRetiK]

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

[VanDeinsberg12]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

That's obvious if you are comparing the latest chart of the bitcoin with 2013 and what the heck is that doesn't make sense in my eyes. If you are predicting about the big crash just like what already did by bitcoin in 2013 and you may wrong about that. This time is not caused by the flash pump just like 2013. The bitcoin is really strong a lot of FUD from the government and high US profiles worth nothing and that was really bad. I believe that will be never happened for sure.

[Zendalet]

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

Gold and stock markets have been around far longer than Bitcoin. And they are driven by different forces. There is no telling Bitcoin will ever recover from another bear market, for example when governments worldwide decide to combat Bitcoin together and outlaw it universally.

[ask]

I don't think the crypto winter is coming. These are just rumors whic will not effect to price.
But sure we will test 5.000 usd very soon.

[harizen]

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots  - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

Past performance not always guaranteed future results. The results may vary depending on the current trend and support from investors and community. In other words, the trend in the past is different from what it is today.

Yes there is always chances for a crash as always but we have lots of reasons to believe that large crash has lower chances to happened. The support for bitcoin today is truly awesome and this is not an output that based on fabrication and manipulation.