Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat

[Wagner2014]

Learn from history. History often repeats itself.

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[manfred]

Would you mind checking with the crash of August/September 2012?  

In October it was almost back to the peak already

[tutkarz]

you should include amount of produced bitcoins in that too. in 2011 there was way less people interested in bitcoin and reward was 7200 but now there is way more people and 2 times less bitcoins produced. Why nobody is writing in bold that basically the 2013 run up was started shortly after reduction of reward? Because there was not enough bitcoins produced to keep price low. Then how are you expecting the price to fall to very low values like in 2011 considering we have whole new situation here?

[manfred]

you should include amount of produced bitcoins in that too. in 2011 there was way less people interested in bitcoin and reward was 7200 but now there is way more people and 2 times less bitcoins produced. Why nobody is writing in bold that basically the 2013 run up was started shortly after reduction of reward? Because there was not enough bitcoins produced to keep price low. Then how are you expecting the price to fall to very low values like in 2011 considering we have whole new situation here?

I am not expecting anything.

[tutkarz]

you should include amount of produced bitcoins in that too. in 2011 there was way less people interested in bitcoin and reward was 7200 but now there is way more people and 2 times less bitcoins produced. Why nobody is writing in bold that basically the 2013 run up was started shortly after reduction of reward? Because there was not enough bitcoins produced to keep price low. Then how are you expecting the price to fall to very low values like in 2011 considering we have whole new situation here?

I am not expecting anything.

there are many people who are expecting price to be $30 but what if they realise that this price is never going to happend. Then they will want to buy for higher price creating another strong move upwards.

[MAbtc]

you should include amount of produced bitcoins in that too. in 2011 there was way less people interested in bitcoin and reward was 7200 but now there is way more people and 2 times less bitcoins produced. Why nobody is writing in bold that basically the 2013 run up was started shortly after reduction of reward? Because there was not enough bitcoins produced to keep price low. Then how are you expecting the price to fall to very low values like in 2011 considering we have whole new situation here?

I am not expecting anything.

there are many people who are expecting price to be $30 but what if they realise that this price is never going to happend. Then they will want to buy for higher price creating another strong move upwards.

There are many people expecting the price to move strongly upwards, but what if they realize this will never happen? Then they will want to sell for a lower price creating another strong move downwards. 

[Frozenlock]

Would you mind checking with the crash of August/September 2012?  

In October it was almost back to the peak already

I meant 2013 and 2012... 

[notme]

Would you mind checking with the crash of August/September 2012?  

In October it was almost back to the peak already

I meant 2013 and 2012... 

Also, it would be more meaningful if you aligned the top and bottom rather than just aligning the top with 2 arbitrary scales..... so much fail.

[Kazu]

Not to be a party pooper but what about log charts, aren't linear charts sort of meaningless for a scaled indicator like this?

[manfred]

Yes unfortunately we did not take the 2012 road instead we heading down the slipper 2011 country line. Who hired that driver? Bitcoin would be $160 now and heading for 200 very shortly. In 2012 it was a nice gradual rise ( $5 to $13) corrected before it boiled over and then continued to rise.
Who said doubling the price in a year ($13 to $26) is a bad thing. I take that kind of pay raise any day.

Since smart ones are viewing this do i included the proper 1:1 scale and in the right price range. It takes all kinds!

 

[sarc]

Seems important to put this here as well:




2012 reverted (pseudo crashed) to the long term growth trend, it appeared otherwise because it started low, and the peak wasn't very high, so it didn't have far to fall. In terms of its 'anatomy', it was just like 2011, and probably 2013 as well. 

[ChrisJ]

I suppose you never know how the past is going to turn out because it hasn't finished happening 

This is a great thread and I wanted to say thanks to everyone who contributed, I have been sending everyone over here.

[dnaleor]

I was a bitcoin bull, now fearing more and more we are actually in a 2011 repeat. Just compare the forum activity at that time and now:



Number of new members falling hard, number of posts still at a high level. That was ALSO the case in 2011
When the number of nen members hits 100/day, we will see the decline starting (I guess to 20-30$).

Removed my buy orders today, added multiple sell orders due to this chart...

Can you update this chart please? Are you polling the forum for this data daily?

I was planning an update today. No I do it manually, but it's just 15 minutes of work
I'll post the link when finished

[Adrian-x]

I was planning an update today. No I do it manually, but it's just 15 minutes of work
I'll post the link when finished

Don't undermine your work. The time you invested in the experience you have is not reflected in that 15 min. Knowing where to find the data feeds how to process them and which may be relevant, adds up to more than 15 min.

But thanks I'll be sure to tip your QR code.

[dnaleor]

I was planning an update today. No I do it manually, but it's just 15 minutes of work
I'll post the link when finished

Don't undermine your work. The time you invested in the experience you have is not reflected in that 15 min. Knowing where to find the data feeds how to process them and which may be relevant, adds up to more than 15 min.

But thanks I'll be sure to tip your QR code.

Wanted to update now, but I just realized that the file is on my external hard drive, which is not at my parents house...
You will have to wait until sunday for an update...

And I'm glad you like the chart

This is the latest update that I've posted:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

That topic will also be used for other updates.

[dnaleor]

As promised (but a few days late):




Downtrend in new members continues (we had some spikes, yes... But nothing really changed)
Nuber of posts is stabelizing, downttrend seems to be slowing down.

edit: all the charts are here availible: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

[jubalix]

As promised (but a few days late):




Downtrend in new members continues (we had some spikes, yes... But nothing really changed)
Nuber of posts is stabelizing, downttrend seems to be slowing down.

edit: all the charts are here availible: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

but is this correlation causal and still valid, eg are VC/institutional investors rather than individuals starting to do things with BTC, that would not show up as a volume of new posters/members?

[dnaleor]

Downtrend in new members continues (we had some spikes, yes... But nothing really changed)
Nuber of posts is stabelizing, downttrend seems to be slowing down.

edit: all the charts are here availible: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

but is this correlation causal and still valid, eg are VC/institutional investors rather than individuals starting to do things with BTC, that would not show up as a volume of new posters/members?

Maybe you are right, maybe we are in a bubble, maybe both

Who knows?  

[Inedible]

As promised (but a few days late):




Downtrend in new members continues (we had some spikes, yes... But nothing really changed)
Nuber of posts is stabelizing, downttrend seems to be slowing down.

edit: all the charts are here availible: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

Great work on this graph

[alan2here]

I agree, all time log chart is the only way to view accurately, shows how laughable some of the "rally! bubble! crash!" stuff is.

Does one exist that shows log market cap over time?