Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat

[phoenix1]

http://i.minus.com/jBwvKDQcUJ3Q5.jpg

Wow, those two fit nicely!

What's interesting in there are few who are calling Bitcoin dead this time.  :-)

People didn't start calling Bitcoin dead until Oct./Nov. Sentiment extreme occurs only near the bottom.

BITCOIN IS DEAD !!!

Can we rally now ?

[1714831206]

1714831206

[1714831206]

1714831206

[Its About Sharing]

Aligned with beginning of run-up, not peak

And it appears the current chart is still in an uptrend, supported by the 100ema (or sma).

[Frozenlock]

And it appears the current chart is still in an uptrend, supported by the 100ema (or sma).

Weird, I was sure we dipped below the 100 ema.

Edit:

[manfred]

Bitcoincharts, 9 month Daily closing price did not go below 100 since may 3

[johnblaze]

Aligned with beginning of run-up, not peak

great job on the chart

[Odalv]

[wachtwoord]

BITCOIN IS DEAD !!!

Can we rally now ?

I doubt it ever lived.

[Rampion]

http://i.minus.com/jBwvKDQcUJ3Q5.jpg

Wow, those two fit nicely!

What's interesting is that June 2013 is unlike Aug 2011 and there aren't many this time who are calling Bitcoin a failed experiment / dead.  :-)   [Edited: to put in dates]

Indeed. No "Bitcoin is a ponzi and Nakamato is its very own Maddoff" posts, no more "Bitcoin is dead" shouting on the news, etc.

This time everybody knows that the bubble is popped and the hype cycle is over, it must deflate all the way down, but at the same time everybody is waiting for the best entry point to face the next sustainable growth trend that will precede the 3rd Bitcoin bubble. That's pretty much the sentiment. Not only here, but also among my friends in the "real" world, all of them are really interested in BTC and willing to buy, they are just waiting for the bubble to be "over".

What's kinda puzzling to me is that most members on the speculation subforum, or generally speaking the traders I know have already sold, everybody is waiting for "cheap coins". So... Apart from ASICminer and AVALON, the new bitcoin-superpowers from China, who has coins to sell ATM? Yeah, most of us hardcore bitcoiners have always a stash on a paper wallet, but I mean "trading funds".... My impression is that everybody is holding fiat ATM.

[MAbtc]

My impression is that everybody is holding fiat ATM.

Funny, I don't get that impression at all. If this wedge breaks, I think we'll see plenty of selling pressure. I don't think the "cheap coins" forum crowd is indicative of the broad market -- I don't know why this is thrown around so often.

[Frozenlock]

(...) My impression is that everybody is holding fiat ATM.

Good lord...

Go visit other subforums or reddit for a change.

Hero members who got bitten hard in 2011 really aren't the norm.

And even then, many of them remain unconditionally bullish.

[Rampion]

(...) My impression is that everybody is holding fiat ATM.

Good lord...

Go visit other subforums or reddit for a change.

Hero members who got bitten hard in 2011 really aren't the norm.

And even then, many of them remain unconditionally bullish.

Yeah, you may be right. I guess I'm getting that impression reading comments of regulars in the wall observer thread, plus speaking with my educated friends, who at the end of the day are pretty much influenced by me. Never go through reddit, it always felt pretty useless.

Let's see how this rally on low volume unfolds.

[Crypt_Current]

And it appears the current chart is still in an uptrend, supported by the 100ema (or sma).

Weird, I was sure we dipped below the 100 ema.

Edit:

Meh, bottoms of candles bounced off it.  Looks like support from where I sit.

[Its About Sharing]

And it appears the current chart is still in an uptrend, supported by the 100ema (or sma).

Weird, I was sure we dipped below the 100 ema.

Edit:

Meh, bottoms of candles bounced off it.  Looks like support from where I sit.

Exactly, but the thing to worry about is the 100ema starting to flatline. I don't like that. I don't like the low volume. I don't like the variety of opinions regarding the price.    LOL
Really, like Rampion said it has gotten bearish on the wall thread. And I can see what others have said in that people are waiting to buy in at "better prices". A lot of those people
are just guys on the street (some that I talk to that want in, but not at this price.)

The scary thing that all bears and bulls know is it just takes one big trader to get things going. I think it is a lot easier to manipulate the price down as there are guys with tons of shares,
but you never know when support comes in. We don't know what is on the sides and NOT in the order book that is just sitting and waiting for cheaper coins (not cheap coins). I mean is
it crazy to think that VC's who are investing millions into Bitcoin are also giving it some support? This supports their investment in a way. A bit analogous to how a company hires developers
to support the infrastructure of an open source piece of software (e.g. bitcoin, linux, etc.) by hiring developers to just build up the infrastructure (outside the company's products.)

[Frozenlock]

VC's invested in services around Bitcoin. The price really doesn't matter to them.

[Its About Sharing]

VC's invested in services around Bitcoin. The price really doesn't matter to them.

Why not?

There must be some link to price though. I wonder if a lower price would hasten acceptance.
And if they see Bitcoin as all that (and they have said as much), I would think they are also buying (personally and perhaps as a corporate investment).

[10c]

VC's invested in services around Bitcoin. The price really doesn't matter to them.

I know I'm the newB here, but I think price matters to VC.
For one more liquidity in the market makes for more possible gains.
And stability increases market sentiment. Which in turn allows for a higher chance of their services becoming successful. 

[notme]

VC's invested in services around Bitcoin. The price really doesn't matter to them.

I know I'm the newB here, but I think price matters to VC.
For one more liquidity in the market makes for more possible gains.
And stability increases market sentiment. Which in turn allows for a higher chance of their services becoming successful. 

Yes, but they are more concerned with long term liquidity and stability than in short term speculative gains.

[10c]

totally agree with you. but long term stability starts short term.
At this point in time we are at a turningpoint.
It's either longterm bear market or continue bullish (pre bubble + growth).
so they might prefer business as usual.

[notme]

totally agree with you. but long term stability starts short term.
At this point in time we are at a turningpoint.
It's either longterm bear market or continue bullish (pre bubble + growth).
so they might prefer business as usual.

Longterm bear market would give them time to deploy all the capital they have just received into human resources and code.  They aren't ready for the next hype cycle yet.

[Adrian-x]

It looks to me more like a repeat of the Aug. 2012 mini-crash.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig6-hourzczsg2012-07-15zeg2012-09-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Oops, I meant this date range:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2012-05-10zeg2012-11-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

The end of October 2012, at the end of your chart there, was the last time before yesterday that we went below the 100 day SMA. Just an important point in market psychology. Here it is from then until now:

Wow those crossovers match up with difficulty quite accurately. Unfortunately the chart is out of date and dateless but showmen for general effect.
I think it is all manipulated to design, I predict we'll see some stable pricing when the difficulty stabilises.