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Author Topic: Is Trace Mayer (and other BTC gurus) liars? His predictions are WRONG...  (Read 262 times)
Mikcik
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October 23, 2017, 03:53:16 PM
 #1

I just discocvered weird thing... Everyone has read all the beautiful analysis how BTC might one day be worth 1 milion USD or even several milion of USD... A lot of these predictions come from Trace Mayer... but how many of us actually tried to verife the claims/predictions... I DID ! And sadly they appear to be ALL wrong (!?). Or im just stupid and missing something (i hope i am!)...

Here we go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s

Just according to this video, at 7:15 mark he says that BTC might capture 1% of some market (offshore bank accounts) worth 30 trilion USD, that is according to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion

It is: 30 000 000 000 000  

He says that if it (BTC) captures just one percent of this, that is 300 bilions ( 300 000 000 000 ) btc might one day be 2,8 milion dollars per BTC (2 800 000 USD per BTC)
Sounds cool and magical, right? Well its total nonsense!!!


300 000 000 000 : 16 500 000 (aproximatelly 16,5 milion BTC in circulation currently) = 18 181 USD per BTC... Not fucking x milions per 1 BTC, just sad 18 000 USD per BTC...

I tried that calculation several times, i tried it even with long scale (in which 1 trilion queals even more zeroes), it doesnt add up! I tried even adjusting the number of BTC (the interview is old, there were fewer BTC in circulation during this interview during 2013), NOTHING gets near his 2.8 milion USD per BTC...?!!

WTF is this...? Is he just a liar...? Were we all tricked? How come i have never heart anyone complain about this math...? Am i the first inteligent person that just doesnt repeat what opinion leaders in crypto say... and thinks, calculates and verifies for himself??

WTF is wrong? Is my calculation wrong? Im totally confused... Were we lied to with all these MEGA predictions of how much BTC can be worth one day because we all were too stupid and lazy to count ourselves??

Where im wrong, PLEASE tell me i wrong in the calculations and Mayers 2.8 milion per BTC holds...Huh
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October 23, 2017, 04:41:32 PM
 #2

I have never heard of Trace Mayers until now, because I don't spend my time listening to and reading bullshit.  It seems you do, which is why it took you so long to figure out stuff you learn within a few months of joining school at five years old.

Regardless, having more money doesn't make you more trustworthy.  If anything, it makes him less trustworthy since he has an incentive to mislead newbies into buying at extortionate prices. 

Of course, everyone would love to think that it's different this time.
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October 23, 2017, 04:55:20 PM
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I've never heard of this guy either. So he's some kind of Bitcoin guru? Does he have a lot of followers? Nice to know that he's so popular that people on the biggest Bitcoin forum aren't even talking about him. Or at least weren't until you came with this thread Cheesy
1 million is too much but people like him think that if it could grow by 600% in a year then it could as well grow by another 600% and another. It's an analogy that can be compared to thinking that if you managed to steal something and get away with it you can keep stealing and nobody will ever catch you.


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Mikcik
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October 23, 2017, 04:59:11 PM
 #4

YES (omg, how long have you been in crypto - noobs ?). HE IS a big deal in the crypto community... That you didnt heart of him is on your ignorance, not on me.

Tell me i made a mistake in my calculations... please tell me...
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October 23, 2017, 05:04:34 PM
 #5

I've never heard of this guy either. So he's some kind of Bitcoin guru? Does he have a lot of followers? Nice to know that he's so popular that people on the biggest Bitcoin forum aren't even talking about him. Or at least weren't until you came with this thread Cheesy
1 million is too much but people like him think that if it could grow by 600% in a year then it could as well grow by another 600% and another. It's an analogy that can be compared to thinking that if you managed to steal something and get away with it you can keep stealing and nobody will ever catch you.
For how many year here on bitcoin world this is my first time i do heard up this name and his not popular for sure maybe some might able to hear but im sure this dude isnt really popular at all and the fuck with that kind of prediction. This would really need to be pushed by magical unicorn to happen. haha.Those numbers isnt really even realistic at all.

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October 23, 2017, 05:11:45 PM
 #6

I just discocvered weird thing... Everyone has read all the beautiful analysis how BTC might one day be worth 1 milion USD or even several milion of USD... A lot of these predictions come from Trace Mayer... but how many of us actually tried to verife the claims/predictions... I DID ! And sadly they appear to be ALL wrong (!?). Or im just stupid and missing something (i hope i am!)...

Here we go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s

Just according to this video, at 7:15 mark he says that BTC might capture 1% of some market (offshore bank accounts) worth 30 trilion USD, that is according to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion

It is: 30 000 000 000 000  

He says that if it (BTC) captures just one percent of this, that is 300 bilions ( 300 000 000 000 ) btc might one day be 2,8 milion dollars per BTC (2 800 000 USD per BTC)
Sounds cool and magical, right? Well its total nonsense!!!


300 000 000 000 : 16 500 000 (aproximatelly 16,5 milion BTC in circulation currently) = 18 181 USD per BTC... Not fucking x milions per 1 BTC, just sad 18 000 USD per BTC...

I tried that calculation several times, i tried it even with long scale (in which 1 trilion queals even more zeroes), it doesnt add up! I tried even adjusting the number of BTC (the interview is old, there were fewer BTC in circulation during this interview during 2013), NOTHING gets near his 2.8 milion USD per BTC...?!!

WTF is this...? Is he just a liar...? Were we all tricked? How come i have never heart anyone complain about this math...? Am i the first inteligent person that just doesnt repeat what opinion leaders in crypto say... and thinks, calculates and verifies for himself??

WTF is wrong? Is my calculation wrong? Im totally confused... Were we lied to with all these MEGA predictions of how much BTC can be worth one day because we all were too stupid and lazy to count ourselves??

Where im wrong, PLEASE tell me i wrong in the calculations and Mayers 2.8 milion per BTC holds...Huh

They are exactly what you said predictions. They aren't fact and are just a guess.
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October 23, 2017, 05:12:19 PM
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This guy is a guru to his own fanbase . no idea about those people.

There are real gurus about bitcoin and cryptocurency that exist how about u listen to this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/user/aantonop/videos

He is actually very respected, stays out of the internal politics around bitcoin. communicating to various different groups in different ways appropriate to the target audience. very flexible approach.

as for the price of bitcoin you have not specified in what time frame the gains the BTC is supposed to reach 1 million USD.

And the offshore accounts i reckon you dont mean banks on boats floatin about in the water. Look Bitcoin is a global thing so u wont want to look at it from an insular perspective.

whenever BTC reaches 18,000 USD its already going to be up 3x from the 6000 its at right now I do not think i will feel very sad on an investment when reaching that amount.

Anyway if ur going to have a BTC that is worht 1 million. it will take some years yet so lets say we will have an inflation of BTC up to 20 million and if each one is 1 mil

Market cap is going to be at 20 trillion dollars for just BTC. Well happens to be the United states over the summer this year reached a debt of 20 trillion dollars. what a coincidence.

That is the debt on the heads of US citizens to pay for their USD ponzi scheme.

I wouldnt be surprised the USD becomes hugely devalued. then BTC can be worth over a trillion dollars each
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October 23, 2017, 05:12:52 PM
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I've never heard of this guy either. So he's some kind of Bitcoin guru? Does he have a lot of followers? Nice to know that he's so popular that people on the biggest Bitcoin forum aren't even talking about him. Or at least weren't until you came with this thread Cheesy
1 million is too much but people like him think that if it could grow by 600% in a year then it could as well grow by another 600% and another. It's an analogy that can be compared to thinking that if you managed to steal something and get away with it you can keep stealing and nobody will ever catch you.
For how many year here on bitcoin world this is my first time i do heard up this name and his not popular for sure maybe some might able to hear but im sure this dude isnt really popular at all and the fuck with that kind of prediction. This would really need to be pushed by magical unicorn to happen. haha.Those numbers isnt really even realistic at all.

wow seriously... you have never heart about him...? But you surelly heart about Max Keiser, Rick Falkvinge?

And it doesnt matter if it sounds or doesnt sound realistic to anyone... what counts is that his "model"- his math is INCORRECT...?

can someone please verify that im not just being stupid and making mistake in my math?
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October 23, 2017, 05:46:51 PM
 #9

Look, it is not possible to predict the exact price at a certain time.  If you told me it would hit 6k before 2018 I would have said you are crazy.

I look at it differently.  Unlike gold, bonds, stocks, etc, the supply of BTC is finite.  So it is simple.  As long as I believe that there are more people who want to buy them and/or more money that will come in to the bitcoin markets, then I will hold.  When I believe that the market is saturated I will think of selling.  We are no where near saturated.

But putting a number on it is not possible.  At least not for me.  What if 10% of the worlds population wants to buy bitcoins.  But how much will each person spend?  When will they decide to do this?  How will it be regulated?  I think trying to predict the price is pointless.  In stead decide if you think more people/money will enter the market or not in the long term.  MUCH easier to determine and less work to research!

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October 23, 2017, 06:26:49 PM
 #10

"guru"...whatever

If you constantly repeat something someday your prediction will happen.
The best example is Roubini.

He predicted the crash 5 times before it happened, he nailed it at the 6th attempt and since then he is constantly wrong, I think the number of fails is over 20 so he turned bullish in the last years.

Your "guru" is not a liar.
He is just a guy guessing stuff based on the weather outside and he is really bad at math.
If i'm going to tell you BTC will probably raise to 20 trillions will that make me a liar?
Let's wait and see. We can even have a bet on this.

Quote
Am i the first inteligent person that just doesn't repeat what opinion leaders in crypto say... and thinks, calculates and verifies for himself??

Don't rate yourself too much.
Most of us don't even bother listening to those guys.
They feed on likes and retweets.

wow seriously... you have never heart about him...? But you surelly heart about Max Keiser, Rick Falkvinge?

Wow, Max Keiser...the guy that is always wrong...
And the father of a total failure:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=438150.0



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October 23, 2017, 06:57:46 PM
 #11

I just discocvered weird thing... Everyone has read all the beautiful analysis how BTC might one day be worth 1 milion USD or even several milion of USD... A lot of these predictions come from Trace Mayer... but how many of us actually tried to verife the claims/predictions... I DID ! And sadly they appear to be ALL wrong (!?). Or im just stupid and missing something (i hope i am!)...

Here we go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s

Just according to this video, at 7:15 mark he says that BTC might capture 1% of some market (offshore bank accounts) worth 30 trilion USD, that is according to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion

It is: 30 000 000 000 000  

He says that if it (BTC) captures just one percent of this, that is 300 bilions ( 300 000 000 000 ) btc might one day be 2,8 milion dollars per BTC (2 800 000 USD per BTC)
Sounds cool and magical, right? Well its total nonsense!!!


300 000 000 000 : 16 500 000 (aproximatelly 16,5 milion BTC in circulation currently) = 18 181 USD per BTC... Not fucking x milions per 1 BTC, just sad 18 000 USD per BTC...

I tried that calculation several times, i tried it even with long scale (in which 1 trilion queals even more zeroes), it doesnt add up! I tried even adjusting the number of BTC (the interview is old, there were fewer BTC in circulation during this interview during 2013), NOTHING gets near his 2.8 milion USD per BTC...?!!

WTF is this...? Is he just a liar...? Were we all tricked? How come i have never heart anyone complain about this math...? Am i the first inteligent person that just doesnt repeat what opinion leaders in crypto say... and thinks, calculates and verifies for himself??

WTF is wrong? Is my calculation wrong? Im totally confused... Were we lied to with all these MEGA predictions of how much BTC can be worth one day because we all were too stupid and lazy to count ourselves??

Where im wrong, PLEASE tell me i wrong in the calculations and Mayers 2.8 milion per BTC holds...Huh

Well, why just a liar? Just a person does not know elementary arithmetic. But you keep listening to it Smiley
And you have correctly calculated - yes, if bitcoin captures 1% of the offshore market, then it will cost the whole array of coins of 300 billion USD (now 100 billion), and one bitcoin - 18,000. You know how to count, and you are observant.

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October 23, 2017, 07:00:57 PM
 #12

It is funny indeed how often are people trying to sell their predictions for a facts Smiley When working with possibilities, you have to remember that they are exactly this: possibilities. A lot of things have to come together in order for btc to reach 1 mil $ and this is a very. very long shot (i don't think it will ever reach this value)

   
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October 23, 2017, 07:06:16 PM
 #13

I watched him a few times. He is OK. Fun guy, solid logic.

I don't know when he did these predictions but if what you say is true, that only makes him bad at mathematics. Because your only example is not enough to convince me to think that he is a liar.
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October 23, 2017, 07:11:54 PM
 #14

I've never heard of this guy either. So he's some kind of Bitcoin guru? Does he have a lot of followers? Nice to know that he's so popular that people on the biggest Bitcoin forum aren't even talking about him. Or at least weren't until you came with this thread Cheesy
1 million is too much but people like him think that if it could grow by 600% in a year then it could as well grow by another 600% and another. It's an analogy that can be compared to thinking that if you managed to steal something and get away with it you can keep stealing and nobody will ever catch you.
probably you are wrong to estimate bitcoins worth actually it can be worth of 1 million per coin.If we put the world worth of money in bitcoin bitcoin can be even morethan one million.But the main thing is it will take time this technology is still in its early stage and we can have a huge future ahead.
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October 23, 2017, 08:31:58 PM
 #15

guys... some of you are fucki*g stupid :-)... it really hurts... we really are probably nearing a bubble, so many "not so bright" people here... :-) (not all).

ITS NOT about some predictions one makes, but those predictions MUST be based on something "real"... You can say that btc will reach 1 milion USD because you believe... or because you saw it in a dream... these are VALID predictions, STUPID as fuc* but valid, with some "internal logic" (altough subjective)...

BUT YOU CANNOT FUCKING say that if bitcoin captures 1% of 30 trillion of offshore bank tax heaven deposits it will go to 2 800 000 USD per BTC... you know why? BECAUSE it doesnt add up! We are not talking about how much probable or improbably it is, because its IMPOSSIBLE(!!!) the math doesnt add up!! If you have 2 bananas and gave one banana to your mother, now both of you have 1 banana... i really do not know (!) what easier way to explain it to you guys... I dont know if its my bad english or your (some of you) bad understanding...

this is horrible... i have been noticing this in crypto community for some time, the lack of inteligence, understanding and "complex" thinking... it makes me mad, sad and cautios...


So the baseline- yes, his calculations are WRONG, it might be possible that BTC will reach or WONT reach 2,8 milion per USD, but not based on his "model" or "predictions" because it has flawed math... Now the question is, why...? Is it that he just cannot count, or is he a straight out "liar" and "narative pusher"...?

This makes me think over more stuff i have heart about crypto, because i believed at that time those guys saying that...


But it also shows you how stupid reporters are (in crypto and general because i saw these prediction cited in several articles on several websites, by several outlets and people... nobody bothered to do the math... (fucking basic math at that)

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