UFC FN 119: Brunson vs Machida Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Date: Saturday, October 28th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 22:30 BCT / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 00:00 BCT / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 BCT / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.stopstream.me/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Derek Brunson (17-5) vs. Lyoto Machida (22-7) (Middleweight)
Demian Maia (25-7) vs. Colby Covington (12-1) (Welterweight)
Pedro Munhoz (14-2) vs. Rob Font (14-2) (Bantamweight)
Francisco Trinaldo (21-5) vs. Jim Miller (28-10) (Lightweight)
Thiago Santos (15-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (16-3) (Middleweight)
John Lineker (29-8) vs. Marlon Vera (10-3-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Vicente Luque (11-6-1) vs. Niko Price (11-0) (Welterweight)
Antonio Carlos Junior (8-2) vs. Jack Marshman (22-6) (Middleweight)
Hacran Dias (23-5-1) vs. Jared Gordon (13-1) (Lightweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) vs. Max Griffin (13-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Deiveson Figueiredo (12-0) vs. Jarred Brooks (13-0) (Flyweight)
Christian Colombo (8-2-1) vs. Marcelo Golm (5-0) (Heavyweight)

Other

- On September 19, promotional newcomer Carlos Felipe was flagged for a potential USADA violation stemming from an out-of-competition sample collected July 29. Therefore he was pulled from his UFC debut against Christian Colombo. He was replaced by fellow promotional newcomer Marcelo Golm on September 20.

- On October 6, it was announced that Luan Chagas fractured his foot and pulled out of his welterweight bout against Niko Price. He was replaced by Vicente Luque on October 6.

Thanks to the Puertorican for letting me this content.

[krach]

Im taking  Machida.
Will add more soon

I think that Machida´s counterstriking and movement will be a good counter to Brunson.
If Brunson doenst win in the first 2:30 then its over for him imo.

https://degenbet.com/ufc-fight-night-brazil-brunson-vs-machida/

[Hydrogen]

BJJ Scout released this clip of Demian Maia vs Colby Covington grappling/wrestling analysis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_fq-2nRkp8

The betting line shifted in favor of Demian Maia shortly afterward. BJJ Scout has some of the best analysis for grappling/wrestling in MMA that I've seen. His material is worth watching for anyone interested in the finer points of wrestling/grappling which is one area most of us don't know much about.

Not many notes on this card, here are a few.

-How well Derek Brunson does in the stand up could depend on whether he's training himself in his own gym or working with JacksonWink coaches. If anyone noticed the changes in Brunson's kickboxing those came with him starting his own gym and training himself out of it.

-Lyoto Machida hasn't done well around the time he tested positive for steroids. He's coming off a suspension from a positive test. Many of the guys that trained at blackhouse gym in california have also tested positive. Anderson Silva, Kevin Casey, Lyoto Machida, Brian Ortega, Rafael Cavalcante and maybe a few others I can't remember right now all trained in the same gym as Lyoto and all tested positive for steroids.

Steroid use could have a detrimental effect upon the careers of MMA fighters. Gilbert Melendez, Chael Sonnen & others have suffered losing streaks after testing positive. Statistically there have been studies done on this and most of the time those who test positive for steroids lose their fights in MMA.

[krach]

Kind of like jon jones losing streak, or Brock Lesnar, or anyone else not caught yet. The fighters in your list are also older or were older when they started losing.

Statistically there have been studies done on this and most of the time those who test positive for steroids lose their fights in MMA.

Can you show us these studies?

[tokeweed]

Im taking  Machida.
Will add more soon

I think that Machida´s counterstriking and movement will be a good counter to Brunson.
If Brunson doenst win in the first 2:30 then its over for him imo.

https://degenbet.com/ufc-fight-night-brazil-brunson-vs-machida/

Same.  I looove Machida.  I love his movement, his elusiveness and his movement overall.  His style is just awesome to watch even without any brawling action.  It's one of the reasons why I like Mcgregor's style as well.  The Shotokan karatedo style as is isn't really that great for MMA, but the movement of the practioners transitioning to MMA kinda makes their fighting style look unique.

Should be a good match.

[krach]

Same.  I looove Machida.  I love his movement, his elusiveness and his movement overall.  His style is just awesome to watch even without any brawling action.  It's one of the reasons why I like Mcgregor's style as well.  The Shotokan karatedo style as is isn't really that great for MMA, but the movement of the practioners transitioning to MMA kinda makes their fighting style look unique.

Should be a good match.

I agree, and although he lost his last two they were vs . top guys.

This time bitcoinrush has a parlay promo where you get a free bet, not bad.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228243.msg23452627#msg23452627

[Hydrogen]

Can you show us these studies?

This site compiles every positive steroid test result in MMA with correlation to the win/loss result of the fight they tested postive for.

Fun fact: Of the aforementioned fighters who tested positive for steroids after fights* 22 were successful in those fights, while 25 were unsuccessful, and one fought to a draw. So, the jury’s still out on that whole “competitive advantage” thing.

http://www.cagepotato.com/mma-steroid-busts-definitive-timeline/

There is more detailed info at the source, I didn't post it all it would be too long.

According to them the official record of confirmed steroid use in MMA is 22 wins to 25 losses.

Too bad the original owners of cagepotato sold their site. Before it was sold it was one of the best MMA sites in terms of content.

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon it was Chael Sonnen who said that steroids do not give fighters super strength. If a fighter does not have the power to knock out someone, steroids will not help.

What steroids do during training is to help with faster recovery, stamina and a little strength. But they do not transform you to become a power puncher like Mike Tyson.

[nydiacaskey01]

Between Derek Brunson and Lyoto Machida, I would go with Derek Brunson. Lyoto Machida last had a taste of victory 2 years and 10 months ago. Derek Brunson also have the reach advantage but in terms of experience inside the octagon Lyoto Machida has more of that but, I think Lyoto Machida is beyond his prime. This will be Derek Brunson's 3rd fight for this year, while Lyoto Machida last seen action in the octagon 2 years ago. I'll be more excited to watch the fight of Demian Maia and Colby Covington.

[tokeweed]

Lot's of other MMA pros are for a Brunson win.  They consider Machida on the decline, but Brunson isn't exactly what he was hyped to be tho.  It was Whitaker who turned out be 'the man'.  But we'll see.  Lots of people don't take that the fight will be in Brazil into consideration.

MMA Pros Pick - Lyoto Machida vs. Derek Brunson (UFC Fight Night 119)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osN4c6XEckY

[Stangkular]

I would have to go with Machida. His movement is unique. the way he gets in and out of skirmish is pretty awesome. Add his excellent counter punching skill I think he will win. But what bothers me is his age. I think he slowed down since before but I'll still bet on him.

[tokeweed]

Check out the media day conference's face off.  Machida looks good!  He looks healthy and comparing his size with Brunson, I don't think Brunson appears to have any reach advantage over him (didn't check their stats yet).

Fight Night Sao Paulo: Media Day Faceoffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MT78VC-t44Y

[krach]

Mega Parlay



Machida, Maia, Linker vs. Vera over 1.5

Those are my main picks, I will watch the weigh ins, might go on some of these underdogs on the rest of the card.

[Hydrogen]

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Edson Barboza.  

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Edson Barboza targeted for UFC 219

A monstrous lightweight matchup is being targeted for the UFC’s year-end show, as the previously discussed fight between top-ranked 155-pound contenders Khabib Nurmagomedov and Edson Barboza is currently in the works for Dec. 30 at UFC 219.

Barboza announced the booking on Friday, however the fight has yet to be formally signed, according to sources.

“I just got the news a few minutes ago that my next fight will be on Dec. 30 in Las Vegas against Khabib Nurmagomedov,” Barboza announced at a UFC Sao Paulo fan Q&A. “I’m really happy with this opportunity. It’s going to be a war."

UFC 219 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/10/27/16561696/khabib-nurmagomedov-vs-edson-barboza-targeted-for-ufc-219

I'm glad Khabib isn't retiring yet. He has had many injuries and was on the verge of retiring. Even Khabib's father said he wants him to retire, soon.

I think I'm taking Derek Brunson over Lyoto Machida. Derek Brunson is similar to Phil Davis, except Brunson seems to have better punching power with more finishes and is more dangerous with his hands. Phil Davis vs Lyoto Machida was a close fight. There's a chance that Machida lost his power fighting at 185 pounds. It has been 3 years since he's hurt anyone with his strikes. Lyoto doesn't have Anderson Silva helping him train or prepare for fights anymore. I like to side against the person testing positive for PED's, too.

[matchi2011]

Lyoto's been on a layoff for too long. I'd like to believe he still has it but i've seen too many legends get the bad end of not being in a fight for a year or two. Of course the training wpuld probably be intense to get him back to the dragon shape and as a fan, hopefully he'd get to it but i'm crossing my fingers here. It would be good though to see him back in the octagon

[tokeweed]

The long rest from training and MMA could actually do his body some good.  Machida is almost 40 now and his body could need more time to heal and recuperate.  And always keep in mind that his family belongs to a long line of martial artists, passed from father to son (not really sure, it's the impression I got.  Lol).  So they're into all that bushido, warrior spirit stuff. 

Fighting is in their blood.

[notserp]

really liking Lyoto Machida  and Demian Maia my only picks.

[Hydrogen]

always keep in mind that his family belongs to a long line of martial artists, passed from father to son (not really sure, it's the impression I got.  Lol).  So they're into all that bushido, warrior spirit stuff. 

Fighting is in their blood.

That is 100% true. One controversial & secret training method Lyoto inherited from his warrior spirit ancestors is urine therapy. The practice of drinking one's own piss to gain an athletic advantage. That's one thing people tend not to take into account when discussing the Machida family's warrior traditions and possibly a neglected point. Sports don't get much more hardcore than people voluntarily drinking their own pee.

It is also true that there are other MMA fighters in the Machida family. Chinzo Machida (Lyoto's brother) fought in bellator earlier this year. Chinzo was choked out in the 1st round against James Gallagher. I hope Lyoto does better tonight than his brother did.

Betting wise this card looks tough. Good luck to everyone.

[bbc.reporter]

@Hydrogen. Lyoto Machida will need to increase his secret training method if he wants to stay in the UFC. Derek Brunson showed him that it will take more than drinking your own pee to win versus a power puncher.

I reckon Lyoto and Demian need to retire.

[notserp]

really liking Lyoto Machida  and Demian Maia my only picks.

I had one more fight and went 0 for 3 lol im on such a bad run i think im about even for the year.