Thoughts on Price Today 90-110 Whale on Deck

[moneymanagment]

Like to hear everyone's thoughts on the trading taking place today.

[acne]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

[bonker]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

[socket]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

[bonker]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

[socket]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the harder it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

[NewLiberty]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the hard it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

You have it right.  Increased difficulty does not lead to any change in scarcity, it does however lead to a reduced margin value for mining, which does not lead to a price drop.  It is happening for another reason entirely.

[socket]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the hard it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

You have it right.  Increased difficulty does not lead to any change in scarcity, it does however lead to a reduced margin value for mining, which does not lead to a price drop.  It is happening for another reason entirely.

Okay, so I was wrong in my initial statement that difficulty was somehow related to scarcity.  But right in a roundabout way I guess.  Difficulty is the mechanism by which the Bitcoin network attempts to keep the introduction of new Bitcoin linear.  Which actually works well.. http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

So we can say that profitability in mining isn't really directly related to current market prices.  This makes much more sense to me.

[socket]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the hard it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

You have it right.  Increased difficulty does not lead to any change in scarcity, it does however lead to a reduced margin value for mining, which does not lead to a price drop.  It is happening for another reason entirely.

Okay, so I was wrong in my initial statement that difficulty was somehow related to scarcity.  But right in a roundabout way I guess.  Difficulty is the mechanism by which the Bitcoin network attempts to keep the introduction of new Bitcoin linear.  Which actually works well.. http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

So we can say that profitability in mining isn't really directly related to current market prices.  This makes much more sense to me.

Maybe I was mistaken when I made that conclusion.  Here are some charts that seem to indicate some relation between "Mining Operating Margin" and USD Market Price.

30 Day:

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


60 Day:

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=60days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=60days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


180 Day:

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=



While the correlation isn't perfect (i wouldn't expect it to be) there seems to be some relationship there.


edit: it also just occurred to me that "Mining Operating Margin" is likely calculated by taking USD trading price and some other variables into account... and would likely explain the correlations.

[NewLiberty]

I think we got a bigger drop incoming.

me too... price adjusting to new difficulty.. Thanks ASIC scumbags!

How does difficulty skyrocketing make prices go *down*? I view difficulty basically as a measure of scarcity ... and as we know basic economics dictates scarcity is one part of what makes something valuable.  The other is demand. I don't see demand suddenly going away or difficulty somehow causing demand to go down.  Maybe I'm totally missing something here.

You answered your own question: more ASICs => Scarcity of BTC decreases => price drops

Nice work dumbass!

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the hard it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

You have it right.  Increased difficulty does not lead to any change in scarcity, it does however lead to a reduced margin value for mining, which does not lead to a price drop.  It is happening for another reason entirely.

Okay, so I was wrong in my initial statement that difficulty was somehow related to scarcity.  But right in a roundabout way I guess.  Difficulty is the mechanism by which the Bitcoin network attempts to keep the introduction of new Bitcoin linear.  Which actually works well.. http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

So we can say that profitability in mining isn't really directly related to current market prices.  This makes much more sense to me.

Mining profitability is directly related to market price, or expected market price.

But adding more mining does not lead to lower prices.  Selling BTC for USD > buying BTC for USD leads to lower prices in USD.

[socket]

Yup, I realized that right after I posted that (see edit).

[acne]

What does the term "Whale on Deck" refer to?

[NewLiberty]

Whale = big player in the trading.


Some folks have guessed that there is a lot of selling for USD to pay for some ASIC manufacturing costs.
There are other theories that I think are more likely.

[acne]

ahh ok thanks for the explantion 

[socket]

Whale = big player in the trading.


Some folks have guessed that there is a lot of selling for USD to pay for some ASIC manufacturing costs.
There are other theories that I think are more likely.

Mind expanding on those theories?  Just curious.

[bonker]

What does the term "Whale on Deck" refer to?

I read it initally as "Whale on Dick" I though it was a thread about beastiality

[abdada]

Not much to see here -- there is lower demand to buy, and a higher demand to sell, so naturally the price goes down.

I figure if more individuals find easier ways to acquire BTC for their wallets, it may balance off the few wealthy individuals who are liquidating.

I am dedicated to BTC for the long haul, and I've proven that because I sell real, actual goods for BTC.  As more people spend it with me, I will even put a job ad out to hire a part timer for BTC payment -- again as proof of my dedication.

The more people that dedicate themselves to using it as a currency instead of an investment, the more powerful the long tail will be against the few wealthy.

[Svennisen]

I think the demand is not the problem in these drops, just that someone with a large stack of btc floods the market with sell orders.

[cr1776]

Check out the "Ignore" button there - when it is highlighted it means a lot of people are ignoring someone.

Many people are helpful around here.

Whoa slow down there man... I was just asking a question trying to understand something.  So I'll ask more questions and feel free to call me a dumbass [sic].  Nice to see this is how the newbie forum works...

How does more ASIC's equal scarcity of BTC decreases?  The Bitcoin network adjusts difficulty dynamically... so the more ASIC's that enter the network the harder it becomes to discover a new block and be rewarded the 25 Bitcoins.

[abdada]

I think the demand is not the problem in these drops, just that someone with a large stack of btc floods the market with sell orders.

Right -- a large stack of BTC is "demanding" dollars.  There is a much smaller stack of dollars "demanding" BTC.

When more individuals find ways to buy just 0.1 BTC a week efficiently, the sheer volume of small buy-trades should more than make up the power of a few large sellers. Which is good for buyers, sellers and holders.