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Question: Bitcoin had 4 bubbles. Is this the 5th?
Yes - 14 (42.4%)
No - 19 (57.6%)
Total Voters: 33

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Author Topic: Bubble or Not?  (Read 2284 times)
CoinsCoinsEverywhere
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October 29, 2017, 08:05:19 AM
 #81

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.
That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.
Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.



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October 29, 2017, 01:04:37 PM
 #82

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

~

~
~

~
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

500% is something impossible for Bitcoin to reach in near future. It means we are hoping Bitcoin to reach $30K which isn't seems happening anyhow. On the other hand how can you say 20% isn't a big decline. Suppose Bitcoin crash 20% tomorrow, it will decline from $5800 to $4640 which I consider to be a very big decline.
No doubt we have huge folk of people using or investing in Bitcoin but still many turn weak hands in the time of negative atmosphere. Thus, there is some degree of bubble formed around Bitcoin.

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October 29, 2017, 03:43:23 PM
 #83

Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.


The point that I've been trying to make is that nothing in this world has an intrinsic value (an absolute measure of value that can universally be agreed upon by everyone) and that value is decided arbitrarily by the two parties of a trade.

Your example would be correct, but it applies more to Bitcoin than it does to the US Dollar. The US Dollar is being printed rather arbitrarily by the Federal Reserve. As such, whatever mapping you have is not accurate as it is not updated sufficiently fast to accommodate for the change in monetary supply. A $1 Whopper will still be a $1 Whopper even though the supply of USD has multiplied several times over, while the economy has not grown anywhere near as much.

Hence, whichever anchor you try to decide on doesn't matter. Because the anchor itself is always going to be so dynamic that it might as well be arbitrary. And Bitcoin, unlike Gold and US Dollars, at least has a fixed supply that can not be changed by the will of a very tiny group of people. As such it would remove a significant amount of arbitration from the financial system once a large enough group of people shifts over to use it (or another crypto) as their main currency.


In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

~

~
~

~
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

500% is something impossible for Bitcoin to reach in near future. It means we are hoping Bitcoin to reach $30K which isn't seems happening anyhow. On the other hand how can you say 20% isn't a big decline. Suppose Bitcoin crash 20% tomorrow, it will decline from $5800 to $4640 which I consider to be a very big decline.
No doubt we have huge folk of people using or investing in Bitcoin but still many turn weak hands in the time of negative atmosphere. Thus, there is some degree of bubble formed around Bitcoin.
The 500% example was for what happened this year. An increase from around $1000 to $6000, thus a multiplication by 6 or an increase of 500%, give or take. If Bitcoin drops even back to $4000 flat, it would be an insignificant "crash" due to the fact that it would still be up 300% from its starting value in 2017.

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October 29, 2017, 06:14:06 PM
 #84

Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.

The point that I've been trying to make is that nothing in this world has an intrinsic value (an absolute measure of value that can universally be agreed upon by everyone) and that value is decided arbitrarily by the two parties of a trade.

Ah, ok, I think I understand what you're saying.  I think we're arguing more about semantics than economic principles.  You're talking about an intrinsic value, which you define as an exact value.  By that definition, yes, the same thing will have a different value to different people.  I've simply been talking about whether or not something has a value greater than zero to someone.

Your example would be correct, but it applies more to Bitcoin than it does to the US Dollar. The US Dollar is being printed rather arbitrarily by the Federal Reserve. As such, whatever mapping you have is not accurate as it is not updated sufficiently fast to accommodate for the change in monetary supply. A $1 Whopper will still be a $1 Whopper even though the supply of USD has multiplied several times over, while the economy has not grown anywhere near as much.

Yes, I agree with you about bitcoin being a currency for my example.  In my example, I did not state that the money supply was fixed at $1, but that's what I had intended (in my head, that was part of "putting aside all other considerations").

You are also correct that that mapping will not be very accurate, particularly on a short-term basis.  As I said, I was oversimplifying things.  It certainly takes a while for prices to change based on money supply changes.  There are also lots of other factors that can change things significantly, like if other countries treat the dollar as a store of value and buy it for investment purposes.  However, money supply effects do eventually propagate throughout the system.  If the Fed doubled the money supply overnight, that $1 Whopper would not cost $2 the next day, but its price will likely increase over the following months.

Hence, whichever anchor you try to decide on doesn't matter. Because the anchor itself is always going to be so dynamic that it might as well be arbitrary. And Bitcoin, unlike Gold and US Dollars, at least has a fixed supply that can not be changed by the will of a very tiny group of people. As such it would remove a significant amount of arbitration from the financial system once a large enough group of people shifts over to use it (or another crypto) as their main currency.

Yes, this is exactly what I was saying before about how bitcoin doesn't have a way to value it because it doesn't have a large enough group of people using it as their main currency: "So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth."


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October 29, 2017, 06:51:13 PM
 #85

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.


In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

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October 30, 2017, 04:00:01 PM
 #86

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Agreed.  I think we are on the same page now.  Thanks for a great discussion.  It has helped me think through the way bitcoin, currencies, and economic systems work more than I have in the past.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

I have a few thoughts here.

First, technically speaking, there is indeed no proper way to determine a bitcoin's value, so there's no way to say definitively that we're in a bubble.

Second, one could argue that since bitcoin doesn't really have the backing of an economic system yet, as we discussed, it's one of the biggest bubbles in history today.  However, that could completely change in the future if/as adoption continues to grow.

Third, one could look at bitcoin's history to make "informal bubble calls," meaning that price has gone too far too fast and is likely to undergo a very significant correction (e.g., 50%+).

I tend to look at bitcoin bubble discussions using all three views, but I think that #2 and #3, if used, need to be discussed in the context of #1, meaning that we first should acknowledge that it's not possible right now, by definition, to say whether bitcoin price is a bubble.  So I think we agree there.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.

In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

Yep, I think this all makes very good sense, and it's a well-balanced view.


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October 31, 2017, 12:47:29 AM
 #87

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...
I think that sometimes people misunderstand or misuse words, that is only  a small correction nothing more, to me bubble bursting is if bitcoin crashed to 600 dollars or something as dramatic as that and since that is not going to happen then the only thing we can say is that a correction may come but that is not a sure thing especially since there are many reasons to think that bitcoin is going to keep growing in the next weeks and months.

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October 31, 2017, 12:58:27 AM
 #88

maybe for some people, the up and down of the price is a bubble but for the other people is not a bubble so I think its depend how we look the price. if the price is up then we can sell bitcoin to reach profit and if the price is down, then we can buy more bitcoin so we can add more amount in our wallet. but in out there, if the price is down, then many people will be panic and they are selling their bitcoin because they don't want to get lose but after the price is up again, they are regret because they selling too early.

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October 31, 2017, 10:06:44 AM
 #89

i think it will be bubble for next, remainin for 4 years is the last big bubble hahaha
bitcoin price is make a big price movement, its to dangerously
for now its like a time bomb, with no one know it will explode. Sad

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October 31, 2017, 09:00:26 PM
 #90

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Agreed.  I think we are on the same page now.  Thanks for a great discussion.  It has helped me think through the way bitcoin, currencies, and economic systems work more than I have in the past.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

I have a few thoughts here.

First, technically speaking, there is indeed no proper way to determine a bitcoin's value, so there's no way to say definitively that we're in a bubble.

Second, one could argue that since bitcoin doesn't really have the backing of an economic system yet, as we discussed, it's one of the biggest bubbles in history today.  However, that could completely change in the future if/as adoption continues to grow.

Third, one could look at bitcoin's history to make "informal bubble calls," meaning that price has gone too far too fast and is likely to undergo a very significant correction (e.g., 50%+).

I tend to look at bitcoin bubble discussions using all three views, but I think that #2 and #3, if used, need to be discussed in the context of #1, meaning that we first should acknowledge that it's not possible right now, by definition, to say whether bitcoin price is a bubble.  So I think we agree there.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.

In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

Yep, I think this all makes very good sense, and it's a well-balanced view.
Very valid points indeed. It just gets a bit difficult to really have discussions on this forum since the terminology gets heavily conflated and used improperly. But point 3 is probably what most people mean on this forum when they talk about a bubble (which is just a market reversal).
Point 2 is a very nice way to look at it: Either we're in the biggest bubble in a very long time, or there's no bubble at all. Hopefully Bitcoin will be here to stay for a very long time though.

And it's certainly true that we need to look at the first definition from a perspective of the other two. Otherwise making any kind of sound judgment about investments would be completely impossible and resemble gambling instead.

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November 01, 2017, 04:19:14 PM
 #91

Very valid points indeed. It just gets a bit difficult to really have discussions on this forum since the terminology gets heavily conflated and used improperly.

Quite true, especially when people get emotionally involved and just start using buzzwords that they've heard before.  I can't count the number of times I've seen the term "ponzi scheme" misused (often in reference to bitcoin).

Point 2 is a very nice way to look at it: Either we're in the biggest bubble in a very long time, or there's no bubble at all.

Indeed.  The hard part is figuring out which it is before the rest of the market does. Smiley  And really, right now I think it can still go either way.  It's like a financial instrument that's just experienced a sharp rise in price.  One of two things needs to happen for the price to go higher: either consolidation or a pullback.  Or, another way to put that is that either value needs to catch up to price over time (consolidation), or price needs to catch up to value (pullback).  Regarding bitcoin's long-term outlook, either value needs to catch up to price (adoption increases), or price needs to catch up to value (price pullback/crash).


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November 01, 2017, 09:26:05 PM
 #92

Quite true, especially when people get emotionally involved and just start using buzzwords that they've heard before.  I can't count the number of times I've seen the term "ponzi scheme" misused (often in reference to bitcoin).
Yeah, I've seen the buzzword mania all over the MonaCo chats in the recent few days. Everybody blindly gulping up the statement that Kris made, even though it's complete horseshit. I'm really not sure if people are not seeing what is happening, or just simply don't care and try to push the prices instead for short-term gains - at the potential demise of the crypto scene.

Indeed.  The hard part is figuring out which it is before the rest of the market does. Smiley  And really, right now I think it can still go either way.  It's like a financial instrument that's just experienced a sharp rise in price.  One of two things needs to happen for the price to go higher: either consolidation or a pullback.  Or, another way to put that is that either value needs to catch up to price over time (consolidation), or price needs to catch up to value (pullback).  Regarding bitcoin's long-term outlook, either value needs to catch up to price (adoption increases), or price needs to catch up to value (price pullback/crash).
It can definitely still go both ways.

So far all the government and central banking FUD (leaders attacking crypto) has been left largely ignored. If things stay this way, which is very well possible as decentralized exchanges are about to come creeping up, Bitcoin or at least the crypto market as a whole will keep climbing into the trillions.

If people suddenly start bending over to the FUD crypto might have a problem and Bitcoin could very quickly evaporate all savings of many people.
From this perspective it seems highly immoral for governments to step in and FUD in a way that would literally destroy the lives of people who were reckless enough to go all in, but if we look back at the past it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Very exciting times ahead! Will we finally see governments cooperating with the citizens they are supposed to serve? Or will they go to a FUD war?

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November 01, 2017, 11:06:57 PM
 #93

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.

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November 02, 2017, 01:36:23 AM
 #94

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


We can not really tell exactly when. The bubble happens for a reason. But as we all witnessing now, Bitcoin price is really spiking up and thus the demand is continuing to increase dramatically. With this, the possible bubble may occur if the price ceiling of Bitcoin, if ever there is, will hit. Price ceiling means maximum price that it can reach. Which means that the price will no longer move up and tend to go down which may lead to panic selling and a dramatic drop of value. I'm not an expert, this is what happened in other investment instruments that may happen also in the cryptocurrency market.

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November 02, 2017, 05:27:47 PM
 #95

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...
I think that sometimes people misunderstand or misuse words, that is only  a small correction nothing more, to me bubble bursting is if bitcoin crashed to 600 dollars or something as dramatic as that and since that is not going to happen then the only thing we can say is that a correction may come but that is not a sure thing especially since there are many reasons to think that bitcoin is going to keep growing in the next weeks and months.
As your said, the price of Bitcoin needs to dumps lower than the base price it has started to increases from last year? In my opinion, only the price of Bitcoin dump 50% the current price is enough to know the bubble of Bitcoin was broken or not!

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November 02, 2017, 06:19:08 PM
 #96

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.
There are some economic and political leaders that are starting to FUD Bitcoin lately though. Calling it all sorts of ridiculous names. Let's hope that the new investors study Bitcoin and understand that all the FUD is nonsense, instead of starting to panic which could cause the price to avalanche real quickly.

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November 06, 2017, 03:20:31 PM
 #97

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.
The growth of the cryptocurrency system made me remember the bubble of dot com in the past. In my opinion, the bubble of Bitcoin just beginning, but we need to be careful because it does not mean the bubble growth of Bitcoin will not burst soon.

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November 06, 2017, 09:40:28 PM
 #98

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.
The growth of the cryptocurrency system made me remember the bubble of dot com in the past. In my opinion, the bubble of Bitcoin just beginning, but we need to be careful because it does not mean the bubble growth of Bitcoin will not burst soon.
You can't compare Bitcoin itself to the dot com bubble at all, they're completely different things.

Now ICOs on the other hand, are very much like penny stocks and the dot com bubble and a lot of people will burn themselves really hard in the coming months and years due to greed and laziness.

What most people don't seem to get however, is the fact that even with penny stocks and the dot com bubble there were quite a few winners. All you have to do is learn from the past and identify what has value and what does not. It's really not that hard.

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November 06, 2017, 10:47:04 PM
 #99

If we consider the last Rally/Bear market it could realistically go to 1/4 the ATH, so a bit under $2k per coin again.
It is really tough to predict, perhaps this rally will sustain to a much higher ATH with all the new interest.  I sold all I want to at this price level and am back in HODL mode, so I'm ready to wait several years if needed for another big rally.


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November 07, 2017, 03:23:00 AM
 #100

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...
I think that sometimes people misunderstand or misuse words, that is only  a small correction nothing more, to me bubble bursting is if bitcoin crashed to 600 dollars or something as dramatic as that and since that is not going to happen then the only thing we can say is that a correction may come but that is not a sure thing especially since there are many reasons to think that bitcoin is going to keep growing in the next weeks and months.

If we wanted the corrections to happe, then I guess every minute corrected it's value, because as price fluctuates dumping of holding was happening. That's been the outcome of many people whose selling early compared to those who wait. That idea about bubble was still a rumors behind digital currency, because its not proven due to bitcoin's popularity now. There's no wonder price can reach that highers price value ever, and will attract more investors on the market places.

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▬▬     WHITEPAPER    ▬▬
FACEBOOK     TELEGRAM
TWITTER     SLACK     MEDIUM
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PRE-SALE.
PUBLIC SALE.
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