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Author Topic: What is Bitcoin's fair value?  (Read 1474 times)
krishnapramod
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October 27, 2017, 10:40:41 AM
 #1

Yesterday, BlackRock Strategist Richard Turnill said there’s no inherent right or wrong Bitcoin price, no fair value. On multiple occasions Bitcoin has been criticized for lacking fair value. I haven't come across any stats or traditional methods that can be used to calculate Bitcoin's fair value, but does that mean Bitcoin doesn't have a fair value?

I found an article on Investopedia about how to measure Bitcoin's fair market value. I don't think this framework is statistically accurate, but theoretically plausible. Almost all predictions regarding Bitcoin price are speculative in nature, but backed by a solid belief that Bitcoin's scarcity and its underlying technology is potentially revolutionary which would have an impact on different sectors. Bitcoin has value because people think it has value, right. It means Bitcoins have positive expected value.

The total market value of a currency, its "monetary base", is driven by two things, transactional demand and reservation demand.

1. Transactional demand - Daily transaction volume.

2. Reservation demand - Hoarding/long-term investment.

It is expected that with more merchant adoption the transactional demand would increase.

3. Hurdle rate - Rate of return required to compensate for the risks associated with holding Bitcoin. Yeah, technopolitical hurdles or backlash from a country can have an impact on Bitcoin's expected value.

Theoretically, the fair-market value of one BTC should simply be the dividend of its predicted future monetary base (total market cap) and BTC in circulation, discounted by a "hurdle rate."

Quote
For further illustration, it might also help to consider how a venture capitalist could determine the net present value of an investment that he never expects to generate positive cash flows during his firm's investment period (e.g. a high-growth tech company that reinvests 100% of its earnings before it ultimate sells to Google). In the absence of earnings, that VC might look at revenue multiples to determine the company's terminal value, and then discount that figure by a rate of 40 to 60%.

With Bitcoin, the thinking is the same. Except Bitcoin's terminal value is actually its future monetary base.

This framework relies on assumptions only, but backed by Bitcoin having all the attributes of money, its scarcity and underlying technology.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050914/easy-way-measure-bitcoins-fair-market-value-doityourself-guide.asp?

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November 02, 2017, 06:12:38 AM
 #2

Yesterday, BlackRock Strategist Richard Turnill said there’s no inherent right or wrong Bitcoin price, no fair value. On multiple occasions Bitcoin has been criticized for lacking fair value. I haven't come across any stats or traditional methods that can be used to calculate Bitcoin's fair value, but does that mean Bitcoin doesn't have a fair value?

I found an article on Investopedia about how to measure Bitcoin's fair market value. I don't think this framework is statistically accurate, but theoretically plausible. Almost all predictions regarding Bitcoin price are speculative in nature, but backed by a solid belief that Bitcoin's scarcity and its underlying technology is potentially revolutionary which would have an impact on different sectors. Bitcoin has value because people think it has value, right. It means Bitcoins have positive expected value.

The total market value of a currency, its "monetary base", is driven by two things, transactional demand and reservation demand.

1. Transactional demand - Daily transaction volume.

2. Reservation demand - Hoarding/long-term investment.

It is expected that with more merchant adoption the transactional demand would increase.

3. Hurdle rate - Rate of return required to compensate for the risks associated with holding Bitcoin. Yeah, technopolitical hurdles or backlash from a country can have an impact on Bitcoin's expected value.

Theoretically, the fair-market value of one BTC should simply be the dividend of its predicted future monetary base (total market cap) and BTC in circulation, discounted by a "hurdle rate."

Quote
For further illustration, it might also help to consider how a venture capitalist could determine the net present value of an investment that he never expects to generate positive cash flows during his firm's investment period (e.g. a high-growth tech company that reinvests 100% of its earnings before it ultimate sells to Google). In the absence of earnings, that VC might look at revenue multiples to determine the company's terminal value, and then discount that figure by a rate of 40 to 60%.

With Bitcoin, the thinking is the same. Except Bitcoin's terminal value is actually its future monetary base.

This framework relies on assumptions only, but backed by Bitcoin having all the attributes of money, its scarcity and underlying technology.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050914/easy-way-measure-bitcoins-fair-market-value-doityourself-guide.asp?

Always appreciate your posts.

Just a thought, if a large merchant were to accept bitcoin and have a policy to immediately convert any bitcoin received to fiat - this would in theory create more selling volume?....however, who in their right mind would spend bitcoin instead of using fiat or credit to buy stuff at a merchant store?
It ended up being two thoughts but the second one negates the first, right?

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November 02, 2017, 06:28:22 AM
 #3

Even if we do force fit a model to value Bitcoin, it becomes kind of impossible to valuate the parameters associated with it. We have reduced the problem from evaluating the price of Bitcoin to evaluating the associated parameters, but we are no closer to the answer. Maybe we should sit back and just let the market decide.


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November 02, 2017, 06:59:48 AM
 #4

I haven't come across any stats or traditional methods that can be used to calculate Bitcoin's fair value, but does that mean Bitcoin doesn't have a fair value?

The total market value of a currency, its "monetary base", is driven by two things, transactional demand and reservation demand.

1. Transactional demand - Daily transaction volume.

2. Reservation demand - Hoarding/long-term investment.

It is expected that with more merchant adoption the transactional demand would increase.

3. Hurdle rate - Rate of return required to compensate for the risks associated with holding Bitcoin. Yeah, technopolitical hurdles or backlash from a country can have an impact on Bitcoin's expected value.

Theoretically, the fair-market value of one BTC should simply be the dividend of its predicted future monetary base (total market cap) and BTC in circulation, discounted by a "hurdle rate."
All three of those make sense--I can see how each would contribute to bitcoin's value/price.  But I don't see how one could possibly come up with any kind of formula/analysis method to say how they actually do contribute.  For #1, you at least have some data that you can try to use, but I think #2 and #3 are impossible to calculate.  Even worse, I think they all interact and feed off of each other.  For example, if people see higher transactional demand (#1), they may decide to hold their bitcoin longer (#2).  Or if a country tries to ban bitcoin (#3), that could lead to more transactions (#1) and less investment (#2) as people sell, but then there would be fewer users so the transactions would go down (#1), which would discourage people from buying (#2), except that price has now fallen a lot, so more people see it as a good buy, so investment starts to climb again (#2), and on and on we go....
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November 02, 2017, 07:43:58 AM
 #5

It's all based on how much people are willing to pay for the coin and how much people are willing to sell it.

About the Transaction Volume, it's just help to determine whether the price is "legit" or not, if the price has gone up and the transaction's volume remained low, it means that the price has been gone up because of a market manipulation and not because an increase in demand( or decrease in supply).

About the bitcoin hoarding, the more people that hoards bitcoin, the more it increases it's price, because supply will become lower, so price goes higher.

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November 02, 2017, 08:46:53 AM
 #6

About the bitcoin hoarding, the more people that hoards bitcoin, the more it increases it's price, because supply will become lower, so price goes higher.
NOT REALLY, if the DEMAND is Higher then the PRICE will be Higher, Even if the supply will become lower, without the Demand, the price will never go higher.

I do not like FAIR VALUE but rather a stable one, we still can't see what will be the peak of Bitcoin, Fair Value will still be an issue and a 'flaw'-as how central bank see Bitcoin's volatile price-, we will have a lot of time waiting for the perfect price of Bitcoin, a lot of new highs and correction will happen before we can achieve a stable movement of price.

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November 02, 2017, 08:50:27 AM
 #7

Also since it is so new and so many mainstream avenues not involved yet we need to factor these in.
Every major addition creates a push on demand whether it is a large retailer of like CME from this week.
Those are incredibly difficult to quantify

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November 02, 2017, 09:43:00 AM
 #8

There's no a fairness  limitation for a cryptocurrency. even in my opinion, current prices have already shown unfairness. but if we seen from the demand and limited stock, didn't rule out bitcoin prices will continue to rise as more users and investors. therefore, with its limited number and increasing demand, so we can't determine the fairness of bitcoin prices.
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November 02, 2017, 10:11:59 AM
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There's no a fairness  limitation for a cryptocurrency. even in my opinion, current prices have already shown unfairness. but if we seen from the demand and limited stock, didn't rule out bitcoin prices will continue to rise as more users and investors. therefore, with its limited number and increasing demand, so we can't determine the fairness of bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin's value is said to be "overvalued", with it's price so high and we still don't know what it might reach in the future, it might pump or dump. With a lot of people using and the increasing demand, Bitcoin will be still in the value where people might say "unfair", but for the people that predicted this will happen, it is pretty fair and predicted.
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November 02, 2017, 11:08:45 AM
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There's no a fairness  limitation for a cryptocurrency. even in my opinion, current prices have already shown unfairness. but if we seen from the demand and limited stock, didn't rule out bitcoin prices will continue to rise as more users and investors. therefore, with its limited number and increasing demand, so we can't determine the fairness of bitcoin prices.


The fair value of bitcoin depends upon the circulated options through the value of price. Whether it can reach the higher or it might be pump or a dump that can people accept. It is the options, people that can get through a lot.

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November 02, 2017, 11:16:55 AM
 #11

Always appreciate your posts.

Just a thought, if a large merchant were to accept bitcoin and have a policy to immediately convert any bitcoin received to fiat - this would in theory create more selling volume?....however, who in their right mind would spend bitcoin instead of using fiat or credit to buy stuff at a merchant store?
It ended up being two thoughts but the second one negates the first, right?

Thank you.

1. Yeah, since Bitcoins are highly volatile it's not a reliable medium of exchange and because of that a good number of merchants who accept Bitcoin do instantly convert it to Fiat. Recently Overstock decided to keep 50% of all its Bitcoin payments as investments and the reason is quite simple, so far Bitcoin has proved to be a good store of value. So basically different perspectives, merchants who consider Bitcoin as too volatile and who consider it a long-term store of value. Bitcoin isn't going to attain stability overnight, but we will have more merchants who rather than converting to Fiat would retain Bitcoin and gradually more adoption would lead to price stability.

2. Store of value and medium of exchange. Right now there aren't many options available to spend Bitcoin. If you bought one Bitcoin @ $2000 and large scale merchant adoption happens when Bitcoin is around $10000. Wouldn't you be using it as a medium of exchange? Purchasing power, I would.

Bitcoin was primarily created as a peer-to-peer payment system, but it is more of a speculative asset now. There is high reservation demand/store of value, but the existing transactional demand is too low and that also being speculative transactions. But if you look at recession-hit nations like Venezuela and Zimbabwe, Bitcoin is used as a primary medium of exchange.

Bitcoin as an asset or currency, we don't know how it's going to evolve, but one thing is certain, the long-term potential, stability of Bitcoin depends on its usage as a censorship-resistant medium of exchange.

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November 02, 2017, 11:31:24 AM
 #12

For me Bitcoins has no real fair value because it is always subject to change of course when the supply and demand of it are the main issues, we all know that Bitcoin will only have a fix 21 million coins so it means that the supply of it is limited overtime and the demand is almost never ending if it will really boom in the next years of its existence. No one can really tell to what is the fair price of a single Bitcoin though.
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November 02, 2017, 11:43:43 AM
 #13

if it were to be equal to gold then it must 111 trillion dollars market cap.

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November 02, 2017, 12:01:16 PM
 #14

I can totaly agree, there is no right or wrong bitcoin price or something about it that is fair or unfair. It's determined by the market, the demand and supply ratio whether we like it or not. The highest price people are willing to pay for it it's the true value of bitcoin and there is no forumula designed to make accurate prediction or exact value in any peiod of time. But we count on that bitcoin will be more valuable as the time goes by.

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November 02, 2017, 12:05:55 PM
 #15

if it were to be equal to gold then it must 111 trillion dollars market cap.
I think the topic want to compare the valuable of bitcoin and gold per unit not the marketcap.
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November 02, 2017, 12:57:01 PM
 #16

It is a digital currency and hence there is no cost for producing it. Most people who are against Bitcoin say the it's value is zero because it has no real value. But I disagree with them since the cost of an asset can be put forward on demand and supply. Bitcoin runs on demand and supply and so the market is the actual value of Bitcoin according to me which by the way keeps moving upwards.

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November 02, 2017, 01:18:42 PM
 #17

According to the information I read, the fair value of bitcoin is $ 2300.
But we all know, the bitcoin exchange rate is very high due to:
First, calculate the change in the cost of mining equipment and its performance.
Furthermore, production difficulties, factorization in the cost of electricity faced by miners on the network. The number of bitcoin is limited while the user (demand) bitcoin very much, so the price becomes expensive. Even today (02-11-2017) had reached USD 7000.54 for one Bitcoin.

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November 02, 2017, 02:05:29 PM
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According to the information I read, the fair value of bitcoin is $ 2300.
But we all know, the bitcoin exchange rate is very high due to:
First, calculate the change in the cost of mining equipment and its performance.
Furthermore, production difficulties, factorization in the cost of electricity faced by miners on the network. The number of bitcoin is limited while the user (demand) bitcoin very much, so the price becomes expensive. Even today (02-11-2017) had reached USD 7000.54 for one Bitcoin.

Where did you get those numbers? I mean they're pretty specific and I'd like to know which source you used.

I think that the current price is very much driven by speculation, it might be because of the next fork, we've also seen a steady increase in value with the previous forks.
Definitely expecting a rather big correction soon, but I could be very wrong on this.


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btcprospecter
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November 02, 2017, 02:13:04 PM
 #19

It all depends on what value is already placed on it. The biggest factor will always be demand as long as people want bitcoin the price will reflect that.

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November 02, 2017, 02:22:28 PM
 #20

I don't know how we can't to call current and almost every price fair? I say this because as we all know price depends on how we sell it, so we people determine it and I think it's the most fair way to determine price. I think currently there is no better method to make price fair, it can always be considered unfair because of very rich people. Well, have you any better idea?

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