Is it worth it to get a BFL bitcoin miner?

[hammereditor]

I've started mining bitcoins with my Sapphire radeon HD 7850 @ 1025Mhz 4 days ago. I, on average, have a decent hashrate of 300 MH/s. But I want more.
So I'm saving my money up to get a Butterfly labs Jalapeño ASIC miner. As you probably know, it has a speed of 5 Gh/s. I was wondering if it was worth it to order that miner ($300 incl. shipping) in 4.5 months or so. I know I kind of missed the boat since it's mid-2013, but should I?
If I order it in October, what would be the butterfly labs queue? Will the price of bitcoins fall? Will the exchange rate be high, and will too many miners buy the product? Will the mining diff. rise, and make it pointless to mine?

[kevindeangelis]

The difficulty and most likely the price of them will rise too... If you order in Oct, maybe you'll get it by the following Oct.  Looks like (some) people that ordered in Jun of last year are just now receiving their orders.

[ArcticWolf]

Actually BFL is starting to pick up the pace of their deliveries. You can check here http://bfl.ptz.ro/ to see who has received their deliveries, and where BFL is up to in the Jalapeno queue

[TomUnderSea]

I've started mining bitcoins with my Sapphire radeon HD 7850 @ 1025Mhz 4 days ago. I, on average, have a decent hashrate of 300 MH/s. But I want more.
So I'm saving my money up to get a Butterfly labs Jalapeño ASIC miner. As you probably know, it has a speed of 5 Gh/s. I was wondering if it was worth it to order that miner ($300 incl. shipping) in 4.5 months or so. I know I kind of missed the boat since it's mid-2013, but should I?
If I order it in October, what would be the butterfly labs queue? Will the price of bitcoins fall? Will the exchange rate be high, and will too many miners buy the product? Will the mining diff. rise, and make it pointless to mine?

IF you could get one NOW, you would make a profit.  The difference between NOW and when (if) it is delivered is the real concern.

The answers to your question(s) are long winded, based on a lot of assumptions and carry some degree of risk taking on your part.

I decided not to go with BFL.  I have purchased shares in a (yet to be delivered) Avalon machine.  Even that is pretty high risk.  I hope to break even in six months from my initial purchase but more likely not for 9+ months.

The only reason I entered the ASIC market was to create a long term stream of revenue while supporting the basic infrastructure of Bitcoin.  If the cost of electricity at the machine's planned location ever exceeds the revenue generation, I have an alternate location in mind that has lower electricity costs and unlimited cooling.  Ultimately, I intend to ensure this node operates for the long term future, not as a quick money source.

[PeterB]

So tough to tell because you don't know when you will receive it.  If you have free power, than go for it!

[Xboxthreefixme]

Try to get an avalon!

[helloby2]

What TomUnderSea said is true...
I'm selling one now too, https://www.bitmit.net/en/item/38654-butterfly-labs-jalepeno-4-5gh-s-asic-in-hand-not-pre-order
I know I'm just promoting my own stuff, but i might be worth it to you

[ollie78]

Brother and I thought about going in on a Jalapeno, only reason not to is the unknown wait time until deliver.

[kodo]

No it is more profitable to buy Bitcoins

[NEcom]

I've been on the fence regarding an ASIC miner purchase, too.  I've run a ton of calculations based on various estimates of difficulty in the next 4-5 months.  Unfortunately, it's very hard to know what is a "best case" scenario or "worst case" since there's so much going on in the ASIC realm right now and "soon."

I've run projections around 15-30 times the current difficulty just to make sure I'm thinking critically about where all these new ASIC miners will be taking things.  There are several companies promising great products, but not much is proven yet.

I put a lot of mileage into this calculator to help think through it:

https://bitclockers.com/calc

Just remember to run estimates down the road a ways and not just based on when you first get it.  Calcs like the one linked help to estimate taking monthly diff increase into account.

[kodo]

Short answer : no definitly not worth it.

[hammereditor]

What TomUnderSea said is true...
I'm selling one now too, https://www.bitmit.net/en/item/38654-butterfly-labs-jalepeno-4-5gh-s-asic-in-hand-not-pre-order
I know I'm just promoting my own stuff, but i might be worth it to you

Right now I only have $55 in both bitcoins and real $, so I cannot get yours, let alone one from BFL.

[Svennisen]

Actually BFL is starting to pick up the pace of their deliveries. You can check here http://bfl.ptz.ro/ to see who has received their deliveries, and where BFL is up to in the Jalapeno queue

Yeah, just to bad that they ship one product to clear backlog and everyone who has not ordered a jala has to wait...

[kodo]

By the time you recieve your preorder it will not be able to repay itself

[ashaw596]

Nope, most likely they won't deliver in time.

[kodo]

BFL is the worst, they dont even send out preorders..

[hammereditor]

Short answer : no definitly not worth it.

Additionally, I don't have to pay for electricity. Even if it was earning only $5/day if/when I got it, that would be great.
All Avalon products are too expensive for me. I want something which is under $325.

No it is more profitable to buy Bitcoins

I'll try to convert any real money I can get into bitcoins, because the exchange rate is likely to increase in the future. I will then convert those into real $ at the time of purchase.

[royston]

Use the money to buy bitcoins and hold till their value appreciate.

The ROI for miners order now and deliver at an unknown time (end of the year if you are lucky) is so small that you would be lucky to recoup your "investment" in the foreseeable future.

[hammereditor]

Use the money to buy bitcoins and hold till their value appreciate.

The ROI for miners order now and deliver at an unknown time (end of the year if you are lucky) is so small that you would be lucky to recoup your "investment" in the foreseeable future.

Here's my final descision:
I will continue saving money, but in the form of bitcoins. You know how, 3 days ago, the price of bitcoins went down to $96? When something like this happens again, I will convert my money. I will keep trading until I have enough bitcoins to get a butterfly ASIC. That way, I can choose to get the miner in the future, or have my bitcoin investment ready for a return.

[GeObsCrypt]

There have been bulk ASIC chip sales by multiple hardware producers. I believe this is a sign that the ASIC hardware landscape is about to be come much more competitive. At the moment, it is a seller's market, but in the future, prices on 1st generation ASIC harware will come down. If you buy from BFL today, who knows when they will deliver? And, you cannot trust their quoted delivery schedule. If you are desperate to have hardware in hand soon, buy an ASICMINER blockeruptor or an avalon ASIC in the auctions forum. You will pay over-the-odds and will not recoup your investment in BTC; however, you may make a tidy profit if BTC price goes up significantly (** but then you would have been better off hoarding bitcoin! **). I'd say you missed the boat on 1st generation of ASIC equipment, just watch the bitcointalk and get in early when the first of 2nd generation of ASIC equipment:
<65nm and > 1 Thash/s for less than $5000 USD. **Beware scammers, though, they are everywhere on bitcointalk!**

cheers, and good luck