Bitcoin difficulty prediction

[ridertiger]

The way I see it, some miners move away from BTC to BCC as difficulty increases, and then come back again. It would be nice if there was a way to predict the difficulty increases in bitcoin. I am sorry if it is written down somewhere but it seems to be a people's choice as opposed to something planned ahead of time. It would be very useful if someone would provide some information on this.
I could write a model or come up with a simple quadratic equation for prediction of the future continuation but a machine learning algorithm would be better.
Any ideas?

[1715254978]

1715254978

[ranochigo]

I don't think its that useful for most people so it doesn't really needs much attention.

The difficulty adjusts the difficulty of the block generation to keep it at 10minutes. Difficulty is adjusted based on the time taken to generate a block in the last 2016 block before the adjustment. With that, we can create an algorithm to estimate difficulty with it. It's not hard to predict how much percent it would increase/decrease by. However, the block generation is highly susceptible to the varience and the sudden increase/decrease in hashrate. It would be impossible to tell what the difficulty would be accurately.

If you want to see, there is an estimated difficulty at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

[ridertiger]

It says, Adjust time: After 1697 Blocks, About 16.5 days
So, does that mean they estimate the next difficulty increase will be approx.  two weeks from now?

[ranochigo]

It says, Adjust time: After 1697 Blocks, About 16.5 days
So, does that mean they estimate the next difficulty increase will be approx.  two weeks from now?

Yes. The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks. The exact time depends on the frequency of the blocks. With the blocks being slower, the amount of times it takes to get to that many blocks would be longer.

I wouldn't count it as accurate by at any case. Hashrate could be added or removed at any point of time. Varience would also be reduced as the sample size gets bigger.

[Skyborn]

If I understand correctly hashing power can be changed when the miners want but difficulty can only change every 2016 blocks. Keeping this in mind, we've experienced 2 possible scenario's in the past 2016 blocks.
1. over all, less mining machines were dedicated to mining bitcoin cash and more switched over to mining bitcoin
2. the number of machines dedicated to mining bitcoin cash has somewhat stayed the same but new machines were dedicated to the bitcoin network
Either way the hashpower in the bitcoin network has increased (otherwise the difficulty wouldn't have gone up).

[pia19]

I think due to bitcoin popularity and increasing demand, there is a difficulty in mining, transferring, and accepting bitcoin. Blockchain cannot handle all the bitcoin processes all at once. That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.

[gilangIDR]

I think due to bitcoin popularity and increasing demand, there is a difficulty in mining, transferring, and accepting bitcoin. Blockchain cannot handle all the bitcoin processes all at once. That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.

Yes the main reason is the increase in block owned by the bitcoin chain. You can see the longer the bitcoin blocks will accumulate and this is a major factor affecting the delivery time of bitcoin. The transaction density in bitcoin networks is also very influential. Look you can notice when the number of bitcoin shipping transactions more and more each time then it will have a significant effect. This is different when the network is quite quiet and can make the delivery time faster. That's the problem now faced because we also can not turn a blind eye if the growth of bitcoin users is increasing will certainly affect most aspects of bitcoin network.

[ridertiger]

So, going back to my original question, is there any way to predict increases in bitcoin cash price, at least based on the difficulty increases, assuming the other factors stay the same?

[CryptoLex]

Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

[cryptomaniac33]

Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

If you have enough experience trading you can see where trends go with 80% accuracy. Thats how I made most my money for the past year.

[ridertiger]

Well, trading requires a lot of experience, and most of the time people lose money, instead of win money as I understand. You have to do scalping but then I am not sure. Can you tell us more about what you do and how you do it? Do you follow signals or something?

Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

If you have enough experience trading you can see where trends go with 80% accuracy. Thats how I made most my money for the past year.

[peterbom]

There are lots of videos and articles on what Bitcoin difficulty is, and lots of charts on how it's changed over the past couple of years. But this isn't really helpful if you're thinking about investing in cloud mining, or maybe even buying your own mining rig.it's depended on market flexibility.

[ridertiger]

Yeah but bitcoincash suddenly went up to 1200 USD all the way from 300 USD! It was right after the difficulty for bitcoin increased and the fork failed.

[yojodojo21]

You Will Just Spend Time,Effort, and Energy. algorithms always connects to Block. Smart Traders Doesn't really mind about The Value Nor They Predict a Value, They Just Trade their Btc into Altcoins Which Are Also Volatile But still keeps Huge Amount of BITCOIN, if you Are Planning To Do Something That Can Help Out People's prediction Then go For it. Price Doesn't Really matter, Transactions does and Legitimacy.

[QQ224466]

Either way the hashpower in the bitcoin network has increased (otherwise the difficulty wouldn't have gone up).

[ridertiger]

I dont really know what you mean exactly but OK. Keeping 80 percent in bitcoin was the advice I heard a while ago, and it is very good advice.

You Will Just Spend Time,Effort, and Energy. algorithms always connects to Block. Smart Traders Doesn't really mind about The Value Nor They Predict a Value, They Just Trade their Btc into Altcoins Which Are Also Volatile But still keeps Huge Amount of BITCOIN, if you Are Planning To Do Something That Can Help Out People's prediction Then go For it. Price Doesn't Really matter, Transactions does and Legitimacy.

[Jessica2009]

   If the supply is less demand will be raising high. Now the popularity of bitcoins are increasing day- by- day even though many people are not aware of bitcoin due to some hacking done in this bitcoin ; it may be a false or true information or not  through news some people are eagerly searching for ,what is bitcoin world more people are trying to get involved in bitcoin. Since the total number of bitcoins are limited to a 21 million no one is sure to predict what happens next .

[patzec]

So, going back to my original question, is there any way to predict increases in bitcoin cash price, at least based on the difficulty increases, assuming the other factors stay the same?

I'm totally agreed with you.
Increasing diff are also making prices higher of that crypto.

[afeno]

If you want to see, there is an estimated difficulty at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

This page was pretty useful in the past. It is a pity that it is not updated since a couple of months.
Does anybody know an alternative similar to this one?

[Nahid41]

I  think so bitcoin difficulty prediction That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.

[MUGOmugo]

I  think so bitcoin difficulty prediction That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.

Yes maybe it is one of the reason but we are not holding the system to know and predict everything, we will just have to listens opinions from others because with that we can get some information about some prediction of the bitcoin.

[ranochigo]

I  think so bitcoin difficulty prediction That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.

Difficulty is NOT and WILL NEVER be affected by the number of transactions on the network. The actual validation of the transaction can be done by anyone with fairly little CPU power. ASICs do not validate transactions at all.

The main and only factor that directly affects the difficulty is the time that a block is generated and thus the amount of hashpower on the network. If the block interval is too high, the difficulty increases and vice-versa.

[Fixart96]

The degree of difficulty can not also be determined from bitcoin prices, but also depends on the total miners worldwide or so called hashpower. So the more total hashpower on the coin the more difficult the level of mining.

[AlexViet]

I agree with your opinion. As the difficulty increases, the value of the bitcoin in the future is further confirmed and the crypto field grows

[ridertiger]

I think there is a halving in 2020 and bitcoin value should be 100K at least then. It could be more than that, dunno.

[veleten]

I think there is a halving in 2020 and bitcoin value should be 100K at least then. It could be more than that, dunno.

some positive thinking there,but not improbable
halvings don't have that much of an influence over price,they do but it is not the main factor

as for the difficulty prediction,it is very hard to predict if you are not an ASIC vendor
they pretty much have the last word as to how the difficulty is-they can sell or hold batches
and announce or postpone new machines to control the maximum hashrate the network has

[madwica]

I think there is a halving in 2020 and bitcoin value should be 100K at least then. It could be more than that, dunno.

The basis of your prediction is from previous halving that brings good impact in the bitcoin price but honestly halving has no effect in bitcoin value which incidentally at that time the demand of bitcoin increases due to positive thinking of many investors that after the even the price of bitcoin will increase.
But i am hoping too that in that time even without halving the value of bitcoin would rise constantly and will brings more profit to all of us.

[ridertiger]

So, what you are saying that because the investors expect bitcoin price to increase, they buy more and it increases?
Well, that makes sense, so I think we can expect another huge price increase going to the next halving in 2020

I think there is a halving in 2020 and bitcoin value should be 100K at least then. It could be more than that, dunno.

The basis of your prediction is from previous halving that brings good impact in the bitcoin price but honestly halving has no effect in bitcoin value which incidentally at that time the demand of bitcoin increases due to positive thinking of many investors that after the even the price of bitcoin will increase.
But i am hoping too that in that time even without halving the value of bitcoin would rise constantly and will brings more profit to all of us.

[Protected101]

For me Its hard to find the prediction always but I think its because of the indemand and people come and go in crypto ,its affects the price value so that sometimes we cannot accurate our speculation in value.Always be positive for increasing of bitcoin for us to earn more profit in the near future.

[orarider]

In the future bitcoin will face many difficulties when it is banned in some countries. The fact that many people use computers with high configurations to make bitcoins makes the market more difficult. Bitcoin decreases in value and affects the users.

[ridertiger]

I see a lot of answers that are simply "word salads". Is there anyone with a good idea as to how we can use the bitcoin difficulty increases to predict the price changes, or maybe a program to predict this? It would be nice if we had an algorithm saying that there, it is time for the bitcoin price to increase, simply because of difficulty increase. This would affect the market and people would buy more bitcoin, actually increasing the price.