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Author Topic: Bitcoin difficulty prediction  (Read 2039 times)
ridertiger
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October 29, 2017, 02:20:52 PM
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The way I see it, some miners move away from BTC to BCC as difficulty increases, and then come back again. It would be nice if there was a way to predict the difficulty increases in bitcoin. I am sorry if it is written down somewhere but it seems to be a people's choice as opposed to something planned ahead of time. It would be very useful if someone would provide some information on this.
I could write a model or come up with a simple quadratic equation for prediction of the future continuation but a machine learning algorithm would be better.
Any ideas?

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ranochigo
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October 29, 2017, 03:33:20 PM
 #2

I don't think its that useful for most people so it doesn't really needs much attention.

The difficulty adjusts the difficulty of the block generation to keep it at 10minutes. Difficulty is adjusted based on the time taken to generate a block in the last 2016 block before the adjustment. With that, we can create an algorithm to estimate difficulty with it. It's not hard to predict how much percent it would increase/decrease by. However, the block generation is highly susceptible to the varience and the sudden increase/decrease in hashrate. It would be impossible to tell what the difficulty would be accurately.

If you want to see, there is an estimated difficulty at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.














 

 

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ridertiger
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October 29, 2017, 04:07:34 PM
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It says, Adjust time: After 1697 Blocks, About 16.5 days
So, does that mean they estimate the next difficulty increase will be approx.  two weeks from now?

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October 29, 2017, 04:51:27 PM
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It says, Adjust time: After 1697 Blocks, About 16.5 days
So, does that mean they estimate the next difficulty increase will be approx.  two weeks from now?
Yes. The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks. The exact time depends on the frequency of the blocks. With the blocks being slower, the amount of times it takes to get to that many blocks would be longer.

I wouldn't count it as accurate by at any case. Hashrate could be added or removed at any point of time. Varience would also be reduced as the sample size gets bigger.














 

 

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Skyborn
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October 29, 2017, 05:13:00 PM
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If I understand correctly hashing power can be changed when the miners want but difficulty can only change every 2016 blocks. Keeping this in mind, we've experienced 2 possible scenario's in the past 2016 blocks.
1. over all, less mining machines were dedicated to mining bitcoin cash and more switched over to mining bitcoin
2. the number of machines dedicated to mining bitcoin cash has somewhat stayed the same but new machines were dedicated to the bitcoin network
Either way the hashpower in the bitcoin network has increased (otherwise the difficulty wouldn't have gone up).
pia19
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October 30, 2017, 10:43:16 PM
 #6

I think due to bitcoin popularity and increasing demand, there is a difficulty in mining, transferring, and accepting bitcoin. Blockchain cannot handle all the bitcoin processes all at once. That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.
gilangIDR
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October 30, 2017, 11:13:32 PM
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I think due to bitcoin popularity and increasing demand, there is a difficulty in mining, transferring, and accepting bitcoin. Blockchain cannot handle all the bitcoin processes all at once. That's the reason why there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions and some transactions took a long time to confirmed. And based on trends, this difficulty will increase as time goes by because the bitcoin users are also increasing.
Yes the main reason is the increase in block owned by the bitcoin chain. You can see the longer the bitcoin blocks will accumulate and this is a major factor affecting the delivery time of bitcoin. The transaction density in bitcoin networks is also very influential. Look you can notice when the number of bitcoin shipping transactions more and more each time then it will have a significant effect. This is different when the network is quite quiet and can make the delivery time faster. That's the problem now faced because we also can not turn a blind eye if the growth of bitcoin users is increasing will certainly affect most aspects of bitcoin network.

ridertiger
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November 07, 2017, 08:32:26 PM
 #8

So, going back to my original question, is there any way to predict increases in bitcoin cash price, at least based on the difficulty increases, assuming the other factors stay the same?

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November 08, 2017, 11:48:46 PM
 #9

Bitcoin price price is super hard to predict. Technical and fundamental analysis is one of the great way to track or predict the price of bitcoin. Sometimes, it depends on those whales how will they manipulate the market plus a false information posted on the news paid by those whales.

CryptoLex
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November 09, 2017, 12:11:56 AM
 #10

Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

cryptomaniac33
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November 09, 2017, 02:23:21 AM
 #11

Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

If you have enough experience trading you can see where trends go with 80% accuracy. Thats how I made most my money for the past year.
ridertiger
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November 10, 2017, 08:32:52 AM
 #12

Well, trading requires a lot of experience, and most of the time people lose money, instead of win money as I understand. You have to do scalping but then I am not sure. Can you tell us more about what you do and how you do it? Do you follow signals or something?
Nah dont think you can just check somewhere when the BCC price will increase except by checnking charts, but TA is not always solid

If you have enough experience trading you can see where trends go with 80% accuracy. Thats how I made most my money for the past year.

peterbom
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November 10, 2017, 01:29:43 PM
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There are lots of videos and articles on what Bitcoin difficulty is, and lots of charts on how it's changed over the past couple of years. But this isn't really helpful if you're thinking about investing in cloud mining, or maybe even buying your own mining rig.it's depended on market flexibility.
ridertiger
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November 21, 2017, 07:52:27 AM
 #14

Yeah but bitcoincash suddenly went up to 1200 USD all the way from 300 USD! It was right after the difficulty for bitcoin increased and the fork failed.

yojodojo21
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November 22, 2017, 05:14:00 AM
 #15

You Will Just Spend Time,Effort, and Energy. algorithms always connects to Block. Smart Traders Doesn't really mind about The Value Nor They Predict a Value, They Just Trade their Btc into Altcoins Which Are Also Volatile But still keeps Huge Amount of BITCOIN, if you Are Planning To Do Something That Can Help Out People's prediction Then go For it. Price Doesn't Really matter, Transactions does and Legitimacy.

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November 22, 2017, 05:21:06 AM
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Either way the hashpower in the bitcoin network has increased (otherwise the difficulty wouldn't have gone up).
ridertiger
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November 22, 2017, 10:41:43 AM
 #17

I dont really know what you mean exactly but OK. Keeping 80 percent in bitcoin was the advice I heard a while ago, and it is very good advice.
You Will Just Spend Time,Effort, and Energy. algorithms always connects to Block. Smart Traders Doesn't really mind about The Value Nor They Predict a Value, They Just Trade their Btc into Altcoins Which Are Also Volatile But still keeps Huge Amount of BITCOIN, if you Are Planning To Do Something That Can Help Out People's prediction Then go For it. Price Doesn't Really matter, Transactions does and Legitimacy.

Jessica2009
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November 26, 2017, 12:47:26 PM
 #18

   If the supply is less demand will be raising high. Now the popularity of bitcoins are increasing day- by- day even though many people are not aware of bitcoin due to some hacking done in this bitcoin ; it may be a false or true information or not  through news some people are eagerly searching for ,what is bitcoin world more people are trying to get involved in bitcoin. Since the total number of bitcoins are limited to a 21 million no one is sure to predict what happens next .

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November 26, 2017, 01:33:03 PM
 #19

So, going back to my original question, is there any way to predict increases in bitcoin cash price, at least based on the difficulty increases, assuming the other factors stay the same?

I'm totally agreed with you.
Increasing diff are also making prices higher of that crypto.
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