[Closed] Black Arrow's Avalon

[newmars]

wow
the profit decreases so fast 

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.



---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.

[dwdoc]

Yes it looks like the blackarrow device will only generate about 30BTC it's first 3 months if delivered 7/31/13.

[dropt]

wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on

I'd almost bet that if this were in the proper (for sale) forum, there'd be a lot less critical discussion.

[PuertoLibre]

http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsx

Here is the spreadsheet.

[blackarrow]

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

This is pure speculation. Please move here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0

[PuertoLibre]

Not speculation whatsoever. Difficulty is a proven mechanism in BitCoins algorithms. Look at the past and see if Avalon owners agree that this is in the right neighborhood of profitability of the past. Look at the date. I put the date I received mine as the starting point. Up until now the difficulty has adjusted roughly every 2 weeks. In the near future (Probably tommorrow) it is less than a week between adjustments. When the other ASIC companies ship it is absolutely guaranteed to adjust even quicker than once a week.

Making the forecast even grimmer.



Ask Avalon owners from Batch 1 if this is close to accurate for them. It is for me. If so, then the other estimates won't be far off. Sorry, I prefer to tell people that they are about to be milked dry.

This isn't only an Avalon issue, it is an issue for all ASICs regardless of who makes it. The current prices will ensure customers won't ever see profitability. Your charging "Batch 3" prices when these machines could be made for heck of alot less. You don't even have NRE costs or fab costs to worry about. You are just a clone manufacturer who taking blueprints already made and sending them to someone to put it together at a significant cost savings.

It is extremely relevant....it is based on basic math.

[PuertoLibre]

Hello everybody!

We will be manufacturing Avalon clones. These are exact Avalon machines manufactured from ngzhang's manufacturing files.

It looks that we will source the Avalon chips early to mid July and should be able to ship Avalon units 7 days after we have received the ASICs. We would like to make an auction for 40 to 120 Avalon machines (65Gigahashes each)

Please bid: the amount of USD you want to pay for a 65Ghash Avalon delivered within 1 month (20-31 July 2013)

Update: Due to everybody's demand we've removed the bid limit of 99 Bitcoins. However we cannot sell under 7600USD.

Sorry to say, your selling lemons. Exceedingly over priced lemons. Everything I have posted has been in line with your thread.

And be assured it will be made available to anyone looking to understand the risks and rewards of their purchase. Obviously, the numbers tell me that your clone is over priced.

If I tap into the spreadsheet tomorrows difficulty level....(as I should)....people will never make 99 BTC back in one entire year from a 65Gh/s Avalon clone.

There is only two options. Lower your profits and raise ours, or offer a device with alot more Gh/s capacity. (4 or 6 modules for example) at the same exact price point. Otherwise each of your customers will be regretting it by years end. (If not much sooner than that.)

[SolarSilver]

Ask Avalon owners from Batch 1 if this is close to accurate for them. It is for me. If so, then the other estimates won't be far off. Sorry, I prefer to tell people that they are about to be milked dry.

A Batch #1 Avalon, delivered 2nd week of March has generate up to today BTC 390. That is less than the BTC 400 in your list, even with the extra week of mining (with a high profit during those early weeks).

Mainly pool downtime, network issues and variance will make your estimates be the maximum to be expected, and in many cases it will not be reached.

This isn't only an Avalon issue, it is an issue for all ASICs regardless of who makes it. The current prices will ensure customers won't ever see profitability.

Let's not complain too much about inflated prices, at least it makes a great barrier to keep out new players of entering the market.

If the market would be flooded with cheap ASICs, difficulty would skyrocket even more ;-)

[bitpop]

These guys are legit. I don't know about the price though.

[KS]

These guys are legit. I don't know about the price though.

The price is too high for a late July ETA.

[blackarrow]

Thanks to everybody for the feedback on the price. We will build them and mine for ourselves.
2.6Thash should be enough for the moment.

[PuertoLibre]

Thanks to everybody for the feedback on the price. We will build them and mine for ourselves.
2.6Thash should be enough for the moment.

If thats the case, you don't need a pre-order system....

Facts, killed the opportunity...?

[blackarrow]

No, we don't take any preorders on avalon as we're not selling them anymore.

[PuertoLibre]

No, we don't take any preorders on avalon as we're not selling them anymore.

Well, not at that price point....

I am going to go create a thread where folks can explore the profitability of an ASIC in a more realistic way.

If Clone Manufacturers and original manufacturers won't change their prices then no one will likely buy. (unless they are supremely retarded)

It's up to the sellers to be reasonable. (or go out of business)

[blackarrow]

If Clone Manufacturers and original manufacturers won't change their prices then no one will likely buy. (unless they are supremely retarded)

It's up to the sellers to be reasonable. (or go out of business)

May I ask what is your current hash power?

[PuertoLibre]

If Clone Manufacturers and original manufacturers won't change their prices then no one will likely buy. (unless they are supremely retarded)

It's up to the sellers to be reasonable. (or go out of business)

May I ask what is your current hash power?

71GH/s Avalon v1.3
Batch #1

[blackarrow]

71GH/s Avalon v1.3
Batch #1

I understand why you are complaining.

[Turbor]

71GH/s Avalon v1.3
Batch #1

I understand why you are complaining.

I don't. He made a fortune with his Avalon already.

[blackarrow]

I don't. He made a fortune with his Avalon already.

He's pissed because he's not making a fortune anymore.

[Turbor]

I don't. He made a fortune with his Avalon already.

He's pissed because he's not making a fortune anymore.

Many will feel this way in the near future. That much is certain