Segwit2X - prove to me it's going to happen.

[gentlemand]

Because I'm still struggling to find much out about Bitcoin's single biggest ever attempted upgrade/hijack/disaster/salvation.

We're less than two weeks or so away now and as far as I can tell we still know very little other than bland PR speak. I've seen no reviews of code. The lead developer has just launched some alt. Plenty of businesses have come out against it. Even the ones that advocated it are not going to call it Bitcoin when it launches. Barely a single miner has said anything about their actual intentions. It has no nodes other than Amazon discount specials.

Big blockers have their BCH and that's humming along steadily. I still don't believe it's going to happen myself. Convince me otherwise.

[TheFlynn49]

Indeed, as far as software development is concerned, the whole thing is a farce.

I checked minutes ago, and found 4 pull requests concerning different replay protection schemes, none of them discussed or tested or worked on, and that 2 weeks before activation.

It just doesn't make any sense that someone would trust this code to keep one's money safe.

shhsh.

[ask]

Segwit2x is going to happen. There is no problem on that. Big blockers have their BCH but another big part of Free miners are already locked in to segwit2x.
Don't worry everything is going to be good

[gentlemand]

Segwit2x is going to happen. There is no problem on that. Big blockers have their BCH but another big part of Free miners are already locked in to segwit2x.
Don't worry everything is going to be good

Locked in where? Where's the thoroughly vetted software to lock in with?

Signalling means sod all. The only things that counts is allocating actual mining grunt. I haven't seen any statements about that from anyone. There are people still signalling proposals that have been dead for years.

[Silberman]

Because I'm still struggling to find much out about Bitcoin's single biggest ever attempted upgrade/hijack/disaster/salvation.

We're less than two weeks or so away now and as far as I can tell we still know very little other than bland PR speak. I've seen no reviews of code. The lead developer has just launched some alt. Plenty of businesses have come out against it. Even the ones that advocated it are not going to call it Bitcoin when it launches. Barely a single miner has said anything about their actual intentions. It has no nodes other than Amazon discount specials.

Big blockers have their BCH and that's humming along steadily. I still don't believe it's going to happen myself. Convince me otherwise.

I agree with this, but at the same time even if things do not make sense and they do not seem ready to launch this coin they may do it anyway, just look at bitcoin gold, an even bigger farce, all the expectations that created and it has turned into a big pile of nothing, so there is the possibility however remote the miners decide to go forward despite the fact we know this fork has nothing going on for it.

[vit05]

Barely a single miner has said anything about their actual intentions.

That is the most curious thing about this fork. Nobody talks about. BCH have their players and people supporting, but s2x we only see people that hate the core team talking about. But we do not have people that are passionate about this fork defending their view.

[marky89]

Because I'm still struggling to find much out about Bitcoin's single biggest ever attempted upgrade/hijack/disaster/salvation.

We're less than two weeks or so away now and as far as I can tell we still know very little other than bland PR speak. I've seen no reviews of code. The lead developer has just launched some alt. Plenty of businesses have come out against it. Even the ones that advocated it are not going to call it Bitcoin when it launches. Barely a single miner has said anything about their actual intentions. It has no nodes other than Amazon discount specials.

Big blockers have their BCH and that's humming along steadily. I still don't believe it's going to happen myself. Convince me otherwise.

To hear Jeff Garzik tell it, it's obvious that the fork is happening. As it stands, I wouldn't read much into the Metronome project. It's an ERC20 token, so it's not as if there's anything innovative happening there.

Plenty of businesses have come out against it, true, but in all honestly, has anyone ever heard of them? Meanwhile, several of the biggest services in the ecosystem say they will defer to miners.

But indeed, with difficulty rising and Chinese miners largely backing Bitcoin Cash, one has to wonder what the real motive is here. I'm beginning to the think that Bitmain and co. are setting up a situation where both the legacy and 2x chains are slow, barely usable and with high fees.

Jiang Zhuoer, (BTC.Top):

To be honest, I do not care about bitcoin now, bitcoin cash is bitcoin. I earn by mining bitcoin, [selling it] and buying bitcoin cash. We mine for the most profit and buy bitcoin cash.

Haipo Yang, (ViaBTC):

We have not received user request to run 2x. If 2x survives and the users request it, we will support both. Let the users have a choice.

If they cause enough disruption when the fork happens, Bitcoin Cash can benefit massively.

[figmentofmyass]

Segwit2x is going to happen. There is no problem on that. Big blockers have their BCH but another big part of Free miners are already locked in to segwit2x.
Don't worry everything is going to be good

Locked in where? Where's the thoroughly vetted software to lock in with?

Signalling means sod all. The only things that counts is allocating actual mining grunt. I haven't seen any statements about that from anyone. There are people still signalling proposals that have been dead for years.

in all fairness, the actual code changes from core 0.14 to btc1 are minimal. there's been ample time for auditing/testing. the problem with the timeline was always that 3 months is too short for compatibility breaking forks in bitcoin. and of course, the fact that there is not widespread agreement among the community to hard fork.

at the end of the day, all we can do is wait and see. there's not much point speculating about what miners may or may not do. and if we're being honest, bitmain alone can determine whether a major split occurs or not. and they are holding their cards close. we know that BCH is their baby. what we don't know is their long term plan here.

[exstasie]

Barely a single miner has said anything about their actual intentions.

That is the most curious thing about this fork. Nobody talks about. BCH have their players and people supporting, but s2x we only see people that hate the core team talking about. But we do not have people that are passionate about this fork defending their view.

Bobby Lee from BTCC did an AMA yesterday. They are throwing all their weight behind Segwit2x, officially. Regardless of what the market does, BTCC will consider the hard fork coin to be "Bitcoin" and will consider the "Bitcoin Core Legacy (BCL)" chain to be an altcoin. They don't expect for the "altcoin" to overtake "Bitcoin" in price, but even if it does, they won't change their stance.

If the Bitcoin Core Legacy (BCL) chain survives, we will consider providing BTCC pool support for that based on market demand.

So it seems that BTCC is openly committing to Segwit2x. Let's see if others follow....

See:
https://twitter.com/bhec39/status/925941647392821248
https://twitter.com/hernzzzzzz/status/925938932583301120/photo/1
https://twitter.com/morcosa/status/926010228633690112

[gentlemand]

Bobby Lee from BTCC did an AMA yesterday.

I read that. It has to be one of the least informative and cloth eared AMAs I've ever read.

And he continually referred to the Bitcoin we're using right now and what his business is founded on as an alt. Fucking weirdo. His brother went virtually upside his head after that performance.

He's still acting like it's a smooth upgrade when anyone with functioning sensory apparatus could tell him otherwise.

[player514]

Segwit2x is going to happen. There is no problem on that. Big blockers have their BCH but another big part of Free miners are already locked in to segwit2x.
Don't worry everything is going to be good

It'll happen but I highly doubt anyone really trusts it. Which is very ironic because they think that people would trust it since it's a fork of bitcoin. We'll probably see people coming in to get an equal amount of the forked coin only to sell in the next hour. Will likely cause a little drop in bitcoin as long as people are actually selling their btc for the forked coin.

[Kronos21]

It seems to me that tactic when the fork should remain unchanged. I'll keep your coins in your wallet until no messages about that transaction take place without problems. To be honest I was those endless fork is already severely strained. I hope that segwit2x will be the last fork. The price increase of bitcoin after every fork is moral and material compensation for me.

[squatter]

Bobby Lee from BTCC did an AMA yesterday.

I read that. It has to be one of the least informative and cloth eared AMAs I've ever read.

And he continually referred to the Bitcoin we're using right now and what his business is founded on as an alt. Fucking weirdo. His brother went virtually upside his head after that performance.

He's still acting like it's a smooth upgrade when anyone with functioning sensory apparatus could tell him otherwise.

To be fair, he acknowledged the reality that not all stakeholders were on board with the "upgrade" but apparently believes that this is an important test of Bitcoin's ability to upgrade. Similarly, it seems that some people on the #NO2X side also see this as an important test of Bitcoin's ability to reject attempts to break consensus and "force" upgrades.

As for the original question, I think the market is currently pricing in a high possibility that the fork does not occur. As a contrarian trader, especially when I look at how arrogant and sure of themselves the #NO2X side has become, I believe this may be a bad assumption.

I'm not willing to place bets right now, especially because I would never send money to Bitfinex, but I definitely won't be selling my B2X coins in the short term.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Segwit2x is going to happen. There is no problem on that. Big blockers have their BCH but another big part of Free miners are already locked in to segwit2x.
Don't worry everything is going to be good

Yes, I think it will definitely happen.  Way too much effort has gone into it for it not to happen.  But I'm uncertain that everything is going to be so good, especially with a lot of the bitcoin core developers calling for the failure of the segwit2x chain.  By a few months after, yes, things will probably stabilize, but there could be a lot of chaos and turbulence before we reach that point.

[Paashaas]

Core's 0.15.0.1 rejects all mined 2mb blocks.

Very low community support, low consensus.

No dev, Jeff is focusing on his own altcoin project.

Zombie nodes.

Miners rather mine a $7000 coin than that worthless 2x. (Jihan cannot afford cheap coins, Bitmain will go bankrupt if Jihan cannot pay his company's expenses)

Bitcoin will loose temporary hashrate but will go up hard after this 2x shitshow is over.

[FiendCoin]

2x is DOA, its only purpose now is to hurt the Bitcoin blockchain so bcash can prosper. The Bitmain cartel is going full steam bcash. All that Korean/Chinese bcash volume is probably Bitmain cartel buying with profits from Bitcoin. I doubt there are very many real people buying bcash. You either have to be an anti-core fanatic or just plain dumb to think bcash is a viable alternative to Bitcoin. Bcash is like an anti-Bitcoin. A completely miner centralized, miner controlled/manipulated, poorly developed coin masquerading as the opposite. 

In any event, I plan to be very careful after this "fork". My advice is to expect the unexpected from the Bitmain cartel, they don't like Bitcoin anymore and want to destroy it so their shit coin can replace it.

Good luck!

[tokeweed]

This feels like this is gonna be one of the biggest blunders in Bitcoin's history.  Am I the only one thinking BTC is gonna crash on mid November?  Been buying some more XMR for cold storage, just in case sh*t hits the fan.

I can see the Ethereum fan boys having a field day with this one.

[1Referee]

Am I the only one thinking BTC is gonna crash on mid November?  Been buying some more XMR for cold storage, just in case sh*t hits the fan.

I too expect the market to take a step or two back after the fork has been initiated, but that's not more than normal considering that we have gone up a lot already. See it as a due correction, combined with people selling the coins that they *potentially* bought in order to end up with more split coins. In this case, purely for trading purposes, it wouldn't hurt to either liquidate some of your profits at current levels, or to use an alt as hedge (which you seem to have done, and at least it's a decent one to go with). I am not into altcoins, so I chose to liquidate some of the profits first at around $6900, and today another percentage around the $7300 level. I am prepared for whatever happens in the coming weeks.

[gentlemand]

Well i guess i was subliminally right after all.

Do people find it a tad ironic that it only required six people to end it?

And is there any actual code for weirdo miners to push on with? I'm guessing there isn't.

[thinair]

Well i guess i was subliminally right after all.

Do people find it a tad ironic that it only required six people to end it?

And is there any actual code for weirdo miners to push on with? I'm guessing there isn't.

Great I think you have the benefit of knowing how these networking stuff works.

Epic case study of Centralized Decentralized Blockchain Open Source Technology