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Author Topic: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction Chart  (Read 16348 times)
BlazinBeaches
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June 14, 2013, 08:40:34 PM
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I've seen a couple of these but I can't seem to find them again

Where are some prediction charts? Smiley
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BlazinBeaches
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June 16, 2013, 02:24:32 PM
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anyone?
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June 16, 2013, 03:34:02 PM
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is http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ what your looking for?

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June 22, 2013, 02:26:29 AM
 #4

That's making to be a pretty nice hockey stick.  Come sept/oct when KNC delivers, we shall see.

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June 22, 2013, 07:16:04 PM
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I wrote this a little time back.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.msg2494899#msg2494899

It is an exponential starting at the beginning of the year with the introduction of the new avalon batch, so I figured it might not be a bad model.

The original Wolfram alpha exponential seems little light, so I upped it by hand a little.  With the unexpected short shutdown of AM, we are tracking a bit ahead of reality, but it may catch back up.

This is obviously extremely speculative... but I found it interesting.

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October 21, 2013, 08:00:03 PM
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This is definitively what you are looking for: http://coinplorer.com/Charts/Difficulty/BTC (disclaimer: I own the website ^^ but it doesn't make it bad...)

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October 22, 2013, 06:12:19 AM
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I own the website ^^ but it doesn't make it bad...)

No but its prediction seems to be based on the assumption that the latest hashrate will remain constant, and that does make it bad.
BTW, your difficulty curve is wrong, you spread the difficulty increase over 3 days, while of course its instantaneous.

This is the best difficulty predictor I know:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

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rampalija
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October 31, 2013, 12:07:00 AM
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http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    Grin

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November 17, 2013, 03:40:00 PM
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No but its prediction seems to be based on the assumption that the latest hashrate will remain constant, and that does make it bad.
BTW, your difficulty curve is wrong, you spread the difficulty increase over 3 days, while of course its instantaneous.

This is the best difficulty predictor I know:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I've added a "dotted" line to tell people what hashrate estimate I take (see http://coinplorer.com/Charts/Difficulty/BTC).
The difficulty seems to be spread over 3 days because each point of the line is 1 day, so the day the difficulty changes it takes the average difficulty of blocks found on this day. This doesn't affect how difficulty predictions are calculated though.

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November 17, 2013, 05:54:08 PM
 #10

is tommorow a new difficulty jump ?

danhu
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November 18, 2013, 01:02:55 AM
 #11

bitcoin charts with bitcoin difficulty predictions .

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincharts.php        << in the middle of this page


bitcoin difficulty estimate will hit 25 billions by may - 2014
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November 19, 2013, 10:03:44 PM
 #12

bitcoin charts with bitcoin difficulty predictions .

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincharts.php        << in the middle of this page


bitcoin difficulty estimate will hit 25 billions by may - 2014

this is of course unrealistic as it would result in 180.000 TH. the 100% network speed by now is somewhere around 5.000 TH. the difficulty is not parallel to hash rate.
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