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Author Topic: Financial Times Story - "Dollar seen losing global reserve status"  (Read 1494 times)
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June 28, 2011, 12:38:57 AM
 #1

This is showing up more and more in the mainstream press

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QWhURhOh


(I'd post it, but it REALLY wants you to go read it there)

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June 28, 2011, 12:42:44 AM
 #2

In case anybody wants to actually read the stub article instead of being blasted
with a stupid "register for free" popup that takes you off the page if you refuse, here:

Quote
Dollar seen losing global reserve status
By Jack Farchy in London

The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.

More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.

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June 28, 2011, 01:21:00 AM
 #3

In case anybody wants to actually read the stub article instead of being blasted
with a stupid "register for free" popup that takes you off the page if you refuse, here:

Quote
Dollar seen losing global reserve status
By Jack Farchy in London

The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.

More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.

Now let's see ... $8,000 bn divided by 21 million comes to ??.... wait a minute!

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June 28, 2011, 03:49:01 AM
 #4

This is showing up more and more in the mainstream press

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QWhURhOh


(I'd post it, but it REALLY wants you to go read it there)


The World is Flat(tening), remember?

Many see the signs of continental changes as proof that the sky is falling.

It aint.

tips: 14Z1Bwa8bgEWphjD2qqaXMTY9ucutwuTw8
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June 28, 2011, 04:44:32 AM
 #5

This is showing up more and more in the mainstream press

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QWhURhOh


(I'd post it, but it REALLY wants you to go read it there)


The World is Flat(tening), remember?

Many see the signs of continental changes as proof that the sky is falling.

It aint.

Someone needs to wake up
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June 28, 2011, 08:36:35 AM
 #6

In case anybody wants to actually read the stub article instead of being blasted
with a stupid "register for free" popup that takes you off the page if you refuse, here:

Quote
Dollar seen losing global reserve status
By Jack Farchy in London

The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.

More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.

Protip:
FT stories can be read without registration by searching the article title in google:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=%22Dollar+seen+losing+global+reserve+status%22


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June 28, 2011, 09:14:32 AM
 #7

I've been following this for almost 3 years now. Here's how I think it will play out;

They are saying this not because they are really considering gold or anything else, they are saying this since even they are beginning to think you cannot prop a government up with massive debt forever. They realize the dollar will begin to lose value too rapidly for their liking.

As an alternative our owner class seems to be pushing the SDR issued by the IMF. This effectively makes the IMF (one of) the most powerful institution on the planet. They may now borrow their own debt based currency to countries to bail them out. The SDR is already operational and many international business people already request quotes in SDR. Whether they think it's time is that soon I don't know but it is happening. So if the dollar were to suddenly begin to lose value (100% per year sort of losses) then the SDR can simply fill the void.

If you believe in the one world government talk then the above should scare you. Personally I believe there are people trying to accomplish this but I don't think they are all knowing and all powerful. I think their own bad economics and ethics will catch up with them. They also don't take big rapid unexpected changes into consideration. They, or the people like Fed chairman Ben Bernanke they appoint, do not understand black swans.

What I suspect will happen is that the dollar will crash in an unbelievably short period. There are several things that could trigger this but the end result is a massive sellback of externally held dollars to the Americans. There will probably be another debt panic before this can happen, IE there will be a run on treasuries or a debt collapse in the US banking system. In response the Fed will prop up the system with unheard of amounts of money and vacuum up the treasuries or prevent deflationary collapse (not the same as deflation). This might hold things for a while but once those dollars are traded there will be a roller coaster like anticipation, then acceleration, then total plummet in the value of the dollar.

They Weimar hyperinflation took 4 years to draw to a close but I suspect this time it will be much, much faster thanks to the amount of information that is available to the public through the internet. Something, gold, silver, bitcoin will be identified as a sound alternative to the dollar and news will spread like wildfire, further accelerating the demise of the dollar. Hopefully for the Americans they will all trade their dollars back to the local, state and federal government for whatever services those entities still provide at that point.

Remember inflation is the effect of issuing new currency into an economy, there is a lot you can issue before this becomes a problem, you could probably quadruple it in one year and not cause a panic. Hyperinflation is when you have a drastic loss in confidence in the future purchasing power of a currency as well as a loss of confidence in the issuer of the currency. The currency then becomes a hot potato, no one wants to hold it, the velocity picks up and prices skyrocket.

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June 28, 2011, 11:29:29 AM
 #8

Now, if only we can trigger this...
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June 28, 2011, 11:37:43 AM
 #9

I've been following this for almost 3 years now. Here's how I think it will play out;

They are saying this not because they are really considering gold or anything else, they are saying this since even they are beginning to think you cannot prop a government up with massive debt forever. They realize the dollar will begin to lose value too rapidly for their liking.

As an alternative our owner class seems to be pushing the SDR issued by the IMF. This effectively makes the IMF (one of) the most powerful institution on the planet. They may now borrow their own debt based currency to countries to bail them out. The SDR is already operational and many international business people already request quotes in SDR. Whether they think it's time is that soon I don't know but it is happening. So if the dollar were to suddenly begin to lose value (100% per year sort of losses) then the SDR can simply fill the void.

If you believe in the one world government talk then the above should scare you. Personally I believe there are people trying to accomplish this but I don't think they are all knowing and all powerful. I think their own bad economics and ethics will catch up with them. They also don't take big rapid unexpected changes into consideration. They, or the people like Fed chairman Ben Bernanke they appoint, do not understand black swans.

What I suspect will happen is that the dollar will crash in an unbelievably short period. There are several things that could trigger this but the end result is a massive sellback of externally held dollars to the Americans. There will probably be another debt panic before this can happen, IE there will be a run on treasuries or a debt collapse in the US banking system. In response the Fed will prop up the system with unheard of amounts of money and vacuum up the treasuries or prevent deflationary collapse (not the same as deflation). This might hold things for a while but once those dollars are traded there will be a roller coaster like anticipation, then acceleration, then total plummet in the value of the dollar.

They Weimar hyperinflation took 4 years to draw to a close but I suspect this time it will be much, much faster thanks to the amount of information that is available to the public through the internet. Something, gold, silver, bitcoin will be identified as a sound alternative to the dollar and news will spread like wildfire, further accelerating the demise of the dollar. Hopefully for the Americans they will all trade their dollars back to the local, state and federal government for whatever services those entities still provide at that point.

Remember inflation is the effect of issuing new currency into an economy, there is a lot you can issue before this becomes a problem, you could probably quadruple it in one year and not cause a panic. Hyperinflation is when you have a drastic loss in confidence in the future purchasing power of a currency as well as a loss of confidence in the issuer of the currency. The currency then becomes a hot potato, no one wants to hold it, the velocity picks up and prices skyrocket.

The USA postal service already sets the prices of international orders in SDR's.
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June 28, 2011, 01:03:06 PM
 #10

Now, if only we can trigger this...

Fuck you.  I doubt what I would make off of bitcoin would be enough to support all the people I care about who would suddenly be thrown in the poor house.  It's not so easy to enjoy your wealth when everyone else is suffering.  Sure, I told them about bitcoin, but I can't really blame them for being risk adverse during such uncertain times.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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June 28, 2011, 01:06:11 PM
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The USA postal service already sets the prices of international orders in SDR's.
afaik this is done since decades by all postal services around the world  Roll Eyes
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June 28, 2011, 02:17:10 PM
 #12

Now, if only we can trigger this...

**** you.  I doubt what I would make off of bitcoin would be enough to support all the people I care about who would suddenly be thrown in the poor house.  It's not so easy to enjoy your wealth when everyone else is suffering.  Sure, I told them about bitcoin, but I can't really blame them for being risk adverse during such uncertain times.

I understand your concern. What I have concluded though is that the biggest beneficiaries outside of the Arab world will be the American public. America has one of the healthiest and wealthiest of all economies but it is being strangled by the actions of the federal government. Most of that debt they talk about is owed to American citizens (50% or so at my last count) and that is only the official debt, if you add Social Security and the medical programs the total debt is something like 95% to the American public. They are funding themselves and the programs off of other Americans and to some extent funding it by devaluing the overseas dollars. Once this ends the US will have far more internal resources available than it currently has and will be able to rid itself of several hurtful monopolies. Most notably the money monopoly enforced by the fed. The federal government is not the people of America, it's well being is not necessarily yours. If you can rid yourselves peacefully and orderly of the sections of your government that have been usurped for special interests and oligarchies you should be fine.

Another thing to keep in mind is that it has already happened. Like a driver speeding to the edge of a cliff there was a line on the road where if he applied the breaks he would have been fine, that line has been crossed long ago. There were in fact several such lines. The first was the bankruptcy of Social Security and the medical programs. That happened quite some time ago, maybe even 30 years. Then there was the collapse of the dollar. That probably happened 10 years ago. Even if you get someone like Ron Paul, who in my opinion is the only man who even understands the problem, the entire monetary system will need to be overhauled. Ron Paul proposes lifting the restrictions on alternative forms of currency to let free market money emerge. Something like bitcoin would be ideal for this.

After the crash, if America does not turn its military might in on its own citizens, I think there will be a very strong recovery.

The other alternative, and this is the really terrifying bit, is that America is choked more and more over the next decade and supranational organizations (like the IMF through SDRs) prolong a collapse by shifting the costs to the rest of the world. This would keep the federal government in power for much longer and be much worse for the US and the world.

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June 28, 2011, 05:24:35 PM
 #13

Well if the crash happens or not do not depend from us, i just said "trigger"... but eventually it will happens (if it have to happens of course). And it's better that if it happens it won't be followed by another fail economy policy but by something better, who said bitcoin?
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June 28, 2011, 09:36:48 PM
 #14

The SDR is a temporary solution at best, given it is itself a fiat currency and its constituent componants (US dollar being the largest share) is set on a FIXED exchange rate.  That updates EVERY FIVE YEARS.

So now think about that in the context of use as a global currency - that means the official exchange rate for the SDR would be re-adjusted once every five years, based on the performance of that basket of currency....

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A Show for the Bitcoin Universe, Fresh Episodes Weekly!
Episode 3 out now at BitTalk.tv

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June 28, 2011, 10:11:50 PM
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Regarding the title of this thread, one day I dream to read:

Financial Times Story - "Bitcoin seen losing global reserve status due to competing crypto currency"
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June 29, 2011, 03:51:57 AM
 #16

It's funny - massive deflation is what really caused hard times.  If the dollar loses its reserve status, it's likely to lose strength and we'll tend towards inflation, which is the opposite situation.  All that means is people who don't cut and run for the stock market, global currency funds, commodities, or business investments will see their wealth destroyed - i.e. people who are too stupid or lazy to understand basic economics, which could be a lot of people seeing as how many Americans sold stocks at the market bottom and missed the rally completely and are now perma-butthurt and trumpeting gold and bit- oh wait a minute
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June 29, 2011, 04:16:58 AM
 #17

I sold some YUM at $56 Wink  It's good to be diversified for all outcomes.

BitTalk
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June 29, 2011, 10:01:59 AM
 #18

In spite of the fact that ShadowStats tends to be in a similar boat as Alex Jones for me (read:waaaaaaaaay to many paranoia-inducing drugs), they seem to be on this one. Roll Eyes

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June 29, 2011, 02:30:34 PM
 #19

old news. knew about it about 3 -4 yrs ago.
Why would anyone wants to hold US$ when the fed just prints money anytime it feels like it?
Every time more money got printed, the reserve holders' value shrink.

Trading MtGox USD for Dwolla/ACH deposit/Chase cash deposit
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=90115.0
Buy/Sell Call/Put Bitcoin options https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99853.0
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June 29, 2011, 05:45:16 PM
 #20

It's inevitable, but obviously a question of when.

My income is in dollars but I still hope for it to happen. I hope to have bitcoins, gold and silver before it does though.
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