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Author Topic: Why is everybody so sure Segwit2x is going to be just another fork?  (Read 337 times)
naf (OP)
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November 01, 2017, 07:46:05 PM
 #1

It is very clear to me that this isn't "just another fork".

I found the best explanation in an article from Forbes:"Will This Battle For The Soul Of Bitcoin Destroy It?" Oct 23th 2017.
Briefly, they explain that the question that divides the community is how to upgrade the network to accommodate more transactions at any given time. SegWit2x plan triggered the upgrade to SegWit in August and planned to raise the block size to 2MB in November. In the meantime, Bitcoin has been a 1MB coin featuring SegWit — the coin that the developers want but the miners did not allow. So now the developers and their supporters are doing their best to prevent the upgrade to 2MB, or at least to ensure that the 1MB coin with SegWit survives and is labeled the real Bitcoin.
However, the future of bitcoin depends on four main groups: 1) core developers, 2) miners, 3) exchangers and 4) users. A number of exchanges and wallets have indicated that they expect to support both chains, at least initially. Core developers and users are likely to support the original bitcoin whereas miners would make a better profit in the new Segwit2x. However, the final result depends on the complex balance among these four groups. In any case, November fork is not "just another fork". It is crucial to bitcoin and it cannot have replay protection because the whole point is whether we are OK with SegWit or we want SegWit2X. This is a developer ideological-political decision that would mostly depend on miners and users reception.

I wonder whether it is due to most people in this forum are users that we really don't care about technical and ideological matters, and see all forks just as free money/bitcoin pumping events. Be careful and confirm that somehow SegWit2X has replay protection before celebrations..

More details in: "Will This Battle For The Soul Of Bitcoin Destroy It?"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2311281.msg23447760#msg23447760

https://forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/?c=0&s=trending#73a466721362

"Bitcoin transactions are grouped into blocks that get processed every 10 minutes. The amount of data that can be included in any given block is limited to 1MB — an arbitrary cap instituted early on to prevent spam on the network. However, transaction volume has been growing, making blocks full, pushing up transaction fees as people compete to ensure that their transaction makes it into the next block or one soon after. While everyone agrees the number of transactions that can be processed at any given time needs to be increased, there is no consensus around how."

"The first group says, actually, if we make the houses bigger, then it’s going to be a bit harder for the many people who make them. We might end up with fewer builders overall, which would be dangerous, because then the power of constructing these houses will become more centralized into the hands of fewer players. And if that happened, not only would they have too much power, but then a government or other hostile actor could target them in order to stop us from building houses altogether.
The second group says, but to go from a minuscule-sized house to a tiny one isn’t going to make it that much more difficult for the builders. Plus, organizing better will only give us more space gradually over time, while doubling the size of the house will give us space we really need overnight.
This is the debate that’s gone back and forth for at least three years."

"The efficient organizer side includes the cypherpunks who envision a world in which the barriers to anyone running their own Bitcoin node (like running your own email server instead of using Gmail) are low, keeping the network as decentralized as possible and therefore further beyond the reach of any government or control by any entity or group of entities."

"The bigger block side includes several venture-backed startups who have brought millions of people to Bitcoin such as the two biggest wallets, Coinbase and Blockchain who have an estimated 30 million crypto users altogether. Other popular companies on this side include Xapo, which is one of the top five Bitcoin storage companies globally and whose CEO Wences Casares may be the entrepreneur most responsible for getting Silicon Valley excited about Bitcoin; Shapeshift, which CEO Erik Voorhees says sees 2-3% of the daily global Bitcoin transactions; Circle, which has backing from Goldman Sachs; Blockchain, whose investors include Lightspeed Venture Partners and Richard Branson; and the biggest investor in the space itself, Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group.
Their vision for Bitcoin is of a new form of money not dictated by any government or central bank but created and used by the people — lots of people, including traditional Wall Street financiers investing in Bitcoin, people in developing countries making $5 transactions, people in developed ones paying for $5 for a cup of coffee.
One of the largest Bitcoin holders, Roger Ver, who is a proponent of big blocks, says the small blockers “think it’s just an interesting science experiment, and they can have everybody running Bitcoin on their Raspberry Pi at home. For me, I want to build a currency that’s going to replace the euro, the dollar and the yen, and every other government-issued currency around the world, and in order to do that Bitcoin needs to scale massively.”"

"If cypherpunks vs. entrepreneurs represents the philosophical divide, SegWit vs. SegWit2x is the political one — and it’s intensely political. Bitcoin’s four main stakeholders are the tech-focused core developers, the profit-driven miners, the business-oriented startups and the users"

"Given that 85-90% of miners are signaling that they support SegWit2x, let’s assume that that’s how much hash power goes to that chain. Meanwhile, if 85-90% of users really do support the 1x chain as the chain split tokens indicate, to the point where they are willing to give up coins on the 2x chain to buy more 1x coins (and assuming that they’re not foiled in their attempt to do so by a replay attack), then it really does become a game of chicken. However, who blinks first is highly dependent on price.

The key to the 2x side winning is for the miners to act in concert and hold on, even if the other chain is more profitable, until the 1x chain becomes unusable and users flee to the 2x chain. How long they can do so depends on whether mining the 2x chain will simply be less profitable than mining the 1x chain or actually unprofitable. Part of the miners’ motivation to push for bigger blocks has to do with the fact that transactions on the blockchain itself pay miner fees. The more of those that are shifted to layer 2, the less they make in such fees. So, while mining the 2x chain may be less profitable or even unprofitable for some time period, they may be willing to make that tradeoff for their long-term goal. If the 2x chain prevails, 1xers who tried to boost the chance of their coin winning by selling the 2x coins in droves may end up losing money. "

"However, while the SegWit2x side could win in a number of scenarios, the opposite could happen too. The 1x chain could be more profitable not only because of the current chain split token spread, but also because users on the 1x chain may pay high fees to try to get their transactions pushed through the infrequent blocks. These factors could entice miners to mine that chain. Blocks then wouldn’t be as slow and the chain could have fewer problems, which would boost the confidence of 1xers and push the price up, which would draw more miners, and so on, in an upward spiral until the SegWit2x chain is unprofitable for so long that almost all the miners defect from it back to the 1x chain."
"There should not be any signed int. If you've found a signed int somewhere, please tell me (within the next 25 years please) and I'll change it to unsigned int." -- Satoshi
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November 01, 2017, 10:10:39 PM
 #2

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However, the future of bitcoin depends on four main groups: 1) core developers, 2) miners, 3) exchangers and 4) users.

miners will mine whatever makes them profit.
exchanges will accept pretty much any coin these days so they dont care

but what really makes a coin useful, popular and ultimately the main coin is what the coin that merchants accept.. meaning coinbase /bitpay due to the merchant shopping cart services they offer. ill emphasise merchant tools part of coinbase, not the exchange part

core will and are doing everything they can to ensure x2 is an altcoin and not a core upgrade proposal.

personally i would have been happy with the x2 IF it was allowed as a bitcoin upgrade. but knowing its just a bait and switch plan of the bscartel just to get segwit and then backtrack out of x2 like they did last year and year before by only wanting anything more than a 1mb base block to be an altcoin..

anyway x2 will 100% be an alt.. and knowing that coinbase and bitpay are bscartel controlled, this whole x2 drama is just an over hyped clams3.0 scenario

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November 01, 2017, 10:22:10 PM
 #3

miners will mine whatever makes them profit.
Yes, but major pools can support the SegWit2x chain at first, so that the legacy chain becomes inconvenient to use, which could help to push up the price of the new chain in the very short term.  Admittedly this would not have a lasting effect, but it's possible for much of that support to stay or for it to have a domino effect on further users.
but what really makes a coin useful, popular and ultimately the main coin is what the coin that merchants accept
I'm not sure I even believe that.  I strongly doubt that much of the money people have invested in BTC is invested with the intention of spending at merchants anymore.  Some of it is but I doubt it's the majority.

Looks like SegWit2x will be an alt, but a significant one which is accepted and sometimes supported by a variety of major services, so it'll at least not be irrelevant.

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November 01, 2017, 11:36:18 PM
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I strongly doubt that much of the money people have invested in BTC is invested with the intention of spending at merchants anymore.  Some of it is but I doubt it's the majority.

supported by a variety of major services, so it'll at least not be irrelevant.

major services... im guessing by reading your first statement where you are practically saying that merchants dont matter in this economy (facepalm) that the services you speak of are just the silly exchanges that accept any crap coin..

as i said unless there is an actual PURPOSE of a coin (need to have it to buy something) then all that is left is the speculative bubble market of exchanges, thus no different then clams or other altcoin of no purpose than to speculate

so merchants are relevant if its to be considered a proper REAL WORLD REAL USAGE currency rather than just a speculative exchange investment in the bubble market

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November 02, 2017, 12:25:42 AM
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Because the core is the core. We have seen what happened to cash and gold already so I am crossing my fingers that same will happen to x2. Anyway, I don't think I should speak anything about this matter because I am still holding on to those forks until now. I mean I haven't sold my forks from cash to gold yet. Whatever happens in the future, I have equal amount of "bitcoins". Whatever will be, will be.
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November 02, 2017, 11:46:25 AM
Last edit: November 02, 2017, 01:04:58 PM by franky1
 #6

Because the core is the core.

core is not the core.

if you start thinking core is the single point of decision then you have already given in to centralisation...... think long and hard about the statement i just said and dont automatically go to defense mode.

but the rest of your post just goes to show most centralists only care about free coins and not decentralisation, not consensus and not bitcoin upgrades, its all about increasing future fiat profit not bitcoins longevity/ethos

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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