WTS 71 Gh/s Avalon Unit in hand - overnight shipping

[yantis]

I have seen that and many like it before the problem is people don't take into account so many things. Below is not all my original thought as I have talking to a lot of people but in general something to think about:

- ASIC companies are not going to meet their target goal dates
- GPU/FPGAs will drop out of the market (right now its about 40 Th/s).
- FinCen rulings. If pools get regulated its a game changer.
- One the full return of a unit is over 3 or 4 months per unit the network hashrate will slow.
- These graphs are based on these huge percentage rates continuing on forever and they won't as most bitcoin miners have a low tolerance for risk.
- As soon as hash rate rises to 1-2Ph/s people will start to drop out of the race and the difficulty will quit rising in 30-40%/month jumps. At that point it should parallel what happened after the GPU spike when GPU mining became popular. It'll start to plane out.
- At a rate of difficulty increase of 50% per month starting this month (150Th/s network hash rate). You will still be looking at mining 159 coins within 1 year. That assumes after 12 months the network hash will be 12Ph/s. Once the existing miners choke on the difficulty it'll start to average out around 1-2Ph/s (5-8mos) and go down to 10-15% growth per month (probably less).
- I would estimate an monthly network hash rate increase for this year of 20-30% when all months are averaged. Given the current difficulty and planned future growth you should make 250BTC on this unit this year. Worst case you're looking at 3-4 years, best case 1 year (or less).

I have went out of my way actually sit down with a few of the upcoming ASIC companies and the math still works out. Its better to mine the bitcoin than to just hold it. Which is why I keep buying hardware. For a guy who is just trying to get rich and double his money in a few months then hardware isn't the way to go period and your foolish to buy anything. But if your holding bitcoin I think its a sound investment.

[PuertoLibre]

Ultimately he and anyone else can request whatever amount they choose. All it takes is one moron to think its worth it.   The moron loses  out but what does the seller care ? he just sold his almost worthless miner for 25 grand.

I doubt Yantis is a bad person.

What I think though, is that he knows he is giving people a bad sale. Though he is looking for a moron to part with his money/BTC.

This brings up the question: If each Avalon will now only produce in the neighborhood of 105 BTC. Then what is a fair price for each?

25% of expected income? 50%?

[ranlo]

I have seen that and many like it before the problem is people don't take into account so many things. Below is not all my original thought as I have talking to a lot of people but in general something to think about:

- ASIC companies are not going to meet their target goal dates
- GPU/FPGAs will drop out of the market (right now its about 40 Th/s).
- FinCen rulings. If pools get regulated its a game changer.
- One the full return of a unit is over 3 or 4 months per unit the network hashrate will slow.
- These graphs are based on these huge percentage rates continuing on forever and they won't as most bitcoin miners have a low tolerance for risk.
- As soon as hash rate rises to 1-2Ph/s people will start to drop out of the race and the difficulty will quit rising in 30-40%/month jumps. At that point it should parallel what happened after the GPU spike when GPU mining became popular. It'll start to plane out.
- At a rate of difficulty increase of 50% per month starting this month (150Th/s network hash rate). You will still be looking at mining 159 coins within 1 year. That assumes after 12 months the network hash will be 12Ph/s. Once the existing miners choke on the difficulty it'll start to average out around 1-2Ph/s (5-8mos) and go down to 10-15% growth per month (probably less).
- I would estimate an monthly network hash rate increase for this year of 20-30% when all months are averaged. Given the current difficulty and planned future growth you should make 250BTC on this unit this year. Worst case you're looking at 3-4 years, best case 1 year (or less).

I have went out of my way actually sit down with a few of the upcoming ASIC companies and the math still works out. Its better to mine the bitcoin than to just hold it. Which is why I keep buying hardware. For a guy who is just trying to get rich and double his money in a few months then hardware isn't the way to go period and your foolish to buy anything. But if your holding bitcoin I think its a sound investment.

A question that is about as important as expected ROI is how long the hardware is going to last. The bad part is that all of this is so new, it could be burning out in a couple months or it could last forever. There's a bit of risk with that alone.

[PuertoLibre]

Lets give Yantis and all other ASIC owners the benefit of the doubt:

Rather than losing 15% every 7 days, let make it only 1% every 7 days.



As you might imagine, this is an EXTREMELY rosy picture. It won't ever happen. Like someone posted, the next difficulty correction is shorter than 1 week and is actually 24% and not 15%.

So no matter how you shake it, ASIC resales are going to be fairly unprofitable. Even if you do Jedi Mind Tricks.

[PuertoLibre]

Yantis demands 30% per month profit loss. 7.5 percent loss in profits per week. A very rosy picture by a large margin, but Alright:

The results:



So...you will still not make back your spent money.

[crazyates]

Wait, people will pay 50BTC on a 10GH/s ASICMiner blade all day long, but they won't pay 5x that much for 7x the hashrate? What is wrong with you people!
For what it's worth, they're both overpriced.

[groomsxxx]

Nothing is wrong with US..those people that paid that were morons as well.

[ranlo]

Wait, people will pay 50BTC on a 10GH/s ASICMiner blade all day long, but they won't pay 5x that much for 7x the hashrate? What is wrong with you people!
For what it's worth, they're both overpriced.

A big part is also determined by when they paid. If they got them a month or two ago, they made a lot more while the diff was still lower than it is now.

[mgio]

Wait, people will pay 50BTC on a 10GH/s ASICMiner blade all day long, but they won't pay 5x that much for 7x the hashrate? What is wrong with you people!
For what it's worth, they're both overpriced.

Those people overpaid.

Also that was WEEKS ago when difficulty was about 10 million. Difficulty is going to be adjusted to be close to 20 million before these can even be shipped out to us.

[yantis]

PuertoLibre - Would love a copy of the google doc or excel if you could PM me. I would love to play with it..especially going out a few years.

I love a good debate though sometimes wish it wasn't in my sales thread but I am not hiding anything so it is what it is.

As for the comment on ASICMiner. All I know is I paid 2.1 BTC each for 80 block erupters.. hardly a good value... I don't know much about the blades but for sure they are not plug and play and seem to be more work than they are worth. Also, when you pay its mining to your account immediately and shipped overnight.. not waiting weeks to get the unit like the ASICMiner stuff or a preorder.

I have no idea what the market is going to do but I do know that I am keeping at least a dozen Avalons and will run them into the ground. Keep in mind I am doing a 10 year bet on Bitcoin. So for me I feel very confident in making my 250 Bitcoins back on these units and more likely in the next 12 months and the rest is just profit. I think people are highly over estimating difficulty but in case I am wrong on that I leveraged that with some good pre orders (like the 7 Jupiters I bought which I honestly don't think will hit till January even if they say September since they haven't even taped out yet).

I don't think the hardware will fail on these since even if a board failed you can just throw it into another unit (each unit holds 4 and comes with 3 so you have room for one spare albeit you might need a bigger power supply. There has not been a single reported Avalon board failure to date that I am aware of so I expect these to last years.

I think the simple fact that I am only selling a few of these units speaks for itself. BTW I paid more than 250 BTC for these on average and that was just this last week =). So if I thought it was all bad I wouldn't have bought them in the first place. I almost regret even offering them for sale with the amount of ranting and hate lol its just not worth it. I might just take down the whole offer lol.

My advice is if you are long Bitcoin this is a better investment than holding Bitcoin and I did put my money where my mouth is and continue to do so.

[grue]

what? 105btc back on a 250btc investment over a whole year isn't good?

I bet OP will say 105 back is great cuz you still have a 250btc machine, so you're at 355btc worth of hardware/btc, haha meanwhile he's trying to lock in a solid 2.5x profit on his hardware alone not counting what he's already made.

You know OP is a master interneter, he couldn't even find the proper sub-forum for his COMPUTER HARDWARE FOR SALE--->https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=75.0

bait

As for the comment on ASICMiner. All I know is I paid 2.1 BTC each for 80 block erupters.. hardly a good value... I don't know much about the blades but for sure they are not plug and play and seem to be more work than they are worth. Also, when you pay its mining to your account immediately and shipped overnight.. not waiting weeks to get the unit like the ASICMiner stuff or a preorder.

I have no idea what the market is going to do but I do know that I am keeping at least a dozen Avalons and will run them into the ground. Keep in mind I am doing a 10 year bet on Bitcoin. So for me I feel very confident in making my 250 Bitcoins back on these units and more likely in the next 12 months and the rest is just profit. I think people are highly over estimating difficulty but in case I am wrong on that I leveraged that with some good pre orders (like the 7 Jupiters I bought which I honestly don't think will hit till January even if they say September since they haven't even taped out yet).

I don't think the hardware will fail on these since even if a board failed you can just throw it into another unit (each unit holds 4 and comes with 3 so you have room for one spare albeit you might need a bigger power supply. There has not been a single reported Avalon board failure to date that I am aware of so I expect these to last years.

I think the simple fact that I am only selling a few of these units speaks for itself. BTW I paid more than 250 BTC for these on average and that was just this last week =). So if I thought it was all bad I wouldn't have bought them in the first place. I almost regret even offering them for sale with the amount of ranting and hate lol its just not worth it. I might just take down the whole offer lol.

My advice is if you are long Bitcoin this is a better investment than holding Bitcoin and I did put my money where my mouth is and continue to do so.

no, that's retarded. I don't care if ASICMINER or BFL are selling at $100 per GH, if they're not going to make ROI, no sane person is going to purchase, period. And your logic about "long Bitcoin" is fallacious. If you're paying $x now to get y BTC over the next 2 years, what's the point when you can spend $x now and get z BTC right now? (hint: y < z). I don't care if BTC goes to $1 or $100, you'll end up with more bitcoins just by buying. No matter how you slice it, 250 BTC is an insane price.

PuertoLibre - Would love a copy of the google doc or excel if you could PM me. I would love to play with it..especially going out a few years.

I love a good debate though sometimes wish it wasn't in my sales thread but I am not hiding anything so it is what it is.

holy crap are you retarded? it's just a few formulas + autofill.

edit: if took calculus in high school, you can integrate the function (1+z)^-x, where z = network growth in percent.

[PuertoLibre]

PuertoLibre - Would love a copy of the google doc or excel if you could PM me. I would love to play with it..especially going out a few years.

I love a good debate though sometimes wish it wasn't in my sales thread but I am not hiding anything so it is what it is.

As for the comment on ASICMiner. All I know is I paid 2.1 BTC each for 80 block erupters.. hardly a good value... I don't know much about the blades but for sure they are not plug and play and seem to be more work than they are worth. Also, when you pay its mining to your account immediately and shipped overnight.. not waiting weeks to get the unit like the ASICMiner stuff or a preorder.

I have no idea what the market is going to do but I do know that I am keeping at least a dozen Avalons and will run them into the ground. Keep in mind I am doing a 10 year bet on Bitcoin. So for me I feel very confident in making my 250 Bitcoins back on these units and more likely in the next 12 months and the rest is just profit. I think people are highly over estimating difficulty but in case I am wrong on that I leveraged that with some good pre orders (like the 7 Jupiters I bought which I honestly don't think will hit till January even if they say September since they haven't even taped out yet).

I don't think the hardware will fail on these since even if a board failed you can just throw it into another unit (each unit holds 4 and comes with 3 so you have room for one spare albeit you might need a bigger power supply. There has not been a single reported Avalon board failure to date that I am aware of so I expect these to last years.

I think the simple fact that I am only selling a few of these units speaks for itself. BTW I paid more than 250 BTC for these on average and that was just this last week =). So if I thought it was all bad I wouldn't have bought them in the first place. I almost regret even offering them for sale with the amount of ranting and hate lol its just not worth it. I might just take down the whole offer lol.

My advice is if you are long Bitcoin this is a better investment than holding Bitcoin and I did put my money where my mouth is and continue to do so.

Send me a Google Doc link and I will import the formulas. It's better if everyone gets to play with it.

[yantis]

PuertoLibre - you should just be able to go to google drive and import the excel file and then share with everyone and your good to go.

Grue - On your comment "And your logic about "long Bitcoin" is fallacious. If you're paying $x now to get y BTC over the next 2 years, what's the point when you can spend $x now and get z BTC right now? (hint: y < z). I don't care if BTC goes to $1 or $100, you'll end up with more bitcoins just by buying."

Can you explain this better? Keep in mind this is bitcoin that is being traded not fiat. There is no USD conversion etc. So I don't get what you mean. If I had 250 BTC bitcoin now how is that better than lets say 300 BTC earned via mining say two years from now? Since its a long bet your better off mining the bitcoin. Now if your using USD you are probably still better off mining than buying bitcoin for tax purposes since its so speculative and you can get the hardware depreciation.

[grue]

PuertoLibre - you should just be able to go to google drive and import the excel file and then share with everyone and your good to go.

Grue - On your comment "And your logic about "long Bitcoin" is fallacious. If you're paying $x now to get y BTC over the next 2 years, what's the point when you can spend $x now and get z BTC right now? (hint: y < z). I don't care if BTC goes to $1 or $100, you'll end up with more bitcoins just by buying."

Can you explain this better? Keep in mind this is bitcoin that is being traded not fiat. There is no USD conversion etc. So I don't get what you mean. If I had 250 BTC bitcoin now how is that better than lets say 300 BTC earned via mining say two years from now? Since its a long bet your better off mining the bitcoin. Now if your using USD you are probably still better off mining than buying bitcoin for tax purposes since its so speculative and you can get the hardware depreciation.

Buy ASIC from yantis @ 250 BTC:
207 BTC over the useful life of the ASIC


Buy BTC from mtgox at current prices:
250 BTC in your hands right now

you see the problem? Your 300 BTC calculation is bullshit as demonstrated by spreadsheets. You have to have an extremely rosy difficulty forecast to break even compared to buying BTC.

[yantis]

grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.

Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.

[dogie]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

[ranlo]

grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.

Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.

I agree. This is all a matter of opinion. When it all comes down to it, it's a simple solution of "if you don't want to buy it, don't buy it." I think at this point it's worth saying that different people are taking this different ways, and leave it at that.

With that said, good luck with the sale!

[PuertoLibre]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math.

When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement)

I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices).

I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week.

People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%.

If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering.

Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits.

[ranlo]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math.

When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement)

I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices).

I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week.

People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%.

If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering.

Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits.

I'm pretty surprised by the numbers myself. I thought even at, say 20% per couple weeks, it wouldn't hurt much. These charts show that even a small change can make a world of a difference.

[PuertoLibre]

http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsx

Alright, there is version 1. I had added an easy way to change the initial BTC amount as well as the frequency of profit loss and setting the percentage.

I post it without warranty. Any psychological harm due to this reality check should be billed to your local psychiatrist and not to me. If you find any strange errors feel free to let me know. (Also feel free to upload it to Google Docs as I don't know the in's or outs of that particular service.)