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Author Topic: Don't Buy Bitcoin Now - At USD6000  (Read 2470 times)
PrasannaPR
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November 02, 2017, 08:23:19 PM
 #21

Whatever any post says Bitcoin will be bitcoin, because it has created a positive feel in every situation It has been criticized. Bitcoin answered by action (just look at the price vs time curve). Any price is right price to buy BTC.
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November 03, 2017, 10:56:16 AM
 #22

There is a simple strategy to make money by just a simple controlled buying and selling strategy. It works for stocks, forex as well as for bitcoins - for the super rich.

1) First acquire large amount of bitcoins. They are now the so called whales (those owning large number of BTC) who are the 1% very intelligent, sharp  and very rich speculators - think George Soros. They are also smart to know that there are very alluring aspect of bitcoins to the small 99 % mass speculators/investors.
2) Use the simple : "Buy Furious Sell Patiently Strategy" repeatedly over a period.
It works this way.
a) Plan pushing the market up - say for a year (bitcoin has risen from May 2016 till present  for 1½ years).
b) Say for a 16 hr trading cycle per day, buy  X BTC in 4 hr EVENLY. Sell the same X BTC in the next 12 hr EVENLY - like a robot.
c) Repeat the same pattern of buying in a short period and off-loading the same amount in a much longer period. The pattern of 16 hr cycles per day is just a suggestion. It could be buying in 1 day and off loading in the next 3 days the same number BTC.
d) In this manner, throughout the 1 - 1½ year, the whale manipulators  do not increase its holding of BTC.
This strategy in general will make the whales a profit as - on average - he would be buying low and selling high for 1½ years WITHOUT the need to increase his BTC holdings.   
e) NOW, after the 1½ year of pushing up the market, the price should be at its peak - USD 7000.
f) It is now the time for the SLOW KILL.
Use the strategy of OFF LOADING HIS large holding of BTC - over a long period of 3 YEARS :
SELL A LARGE AMOUNT EVENLY OVER 3 YEARS:
   Sell X BTC per day for 3 years.     
No strategy needed. Just do it as if by robots. He would - on average - be selling at highs what he bought at lows. It is not Quantum Mechanics, but simple averaging and probabilities. 

That's how the top 1% outplays the other 99%.


That sounds intresting, but you need practically zero trading fees to do that. I think there are such deals for stock daytrading, but I bet there hasn't been efficient exchange for bitcoin from day one.
thinair (OP)
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November 03, 2017, 02:28:48 PM
 #23

There is a simple strategy to make money by just a simple controlled buying and selling strategy. It works for stocks, forex as well as for bitcoins - for the super rich.

1) First acquire large amount of bitcoins. They are now the so called whales (those owning large number of BTC) who are the 1% very intelligent, sharp  and very rich speculators - think George Soros. They are also smart to know that there are very alluring aspect of bitcoins to the small 99 % mass speculators/investors.
2) Use the simple : "Buy Furious Sell Patiently Strategy" repeatedly over a period.
It works this way.
a) Plan pushing the market up - say for a year (bitcoin has risen from May 2016 till present  for 1½ years).
b) Say for a 16 hr trading cycle per day, buy  X BTC in 4 hr EVENLY. Sell the same X BTC in the next 12 hr EVENLY - like a robot.
c) Repeat the same pattern of buying in a short period and off-loading the same amount in a much longer period. The pattern of 16 hr cycles per day is just a suggestion. It could be buying in 1 day and off loading in the next 3 days the same number BTC.
d) In this manner, throughout the 1 - 1½ year, the whale manipulators  do not increase its holding of BTC.
This strategy in general will make the whales a profit as - on average - he would be buying low and selling high for 1½ years WITHOUT the need to increase his BTC holdings.  
e) NOW, after the 1½ year of pushing up the market, the price should be at its peak - USD 7000.
f) It is now the time for the SLOW KILL.
Use the strategy of OFF LOADING HIS large holding of BTC - over a long period of 3 YEARS :
SELL A LARGE AMOUNT EVENLY OVER 3 YEARS:
   Sell X BTC per day for 3 years.    
No strategy needed. Just do it as if by robots. He would - on average - be selling at highs what he bought at lows. It is not Quantum Mechanics, but simple averaging and probabilities.  

That's how the top 1% outplays the other 99%.


That sounds intresting, but you need practically zero trading fees to do that. I think there are such deals for stock daytrading, but I bet there hasn't been efficient exchange for bitcoin from day one.
[edit] about the need for "zero trading fee" - the profit from just buying low and selling high is sufficient to cover any trading fees. After a period of "not making profits" it would be a sign of a market top. STOP the "pump" and "DUMP"!

Actually, I found that what I describe is nothing but "pump and dump" as known in the financial world. My realization is that it really works - "pump the market furiously and sell patiently" - just simple principles about averaging!   I think it is what is happening now giving the price of USD7000. But bitcoin purists will refuse such an argument, saying this should be what bitcoins should be doing - RISE AND RISE.

I have just been thinking about how to implement a bitcoin trading system. I realized that actually it can easily be done.

1) The trading system even can do market making without risk by doing deals/agreement with bitcoin depositors. It could even implement borrowing their bitcoins to lend to short sellers, etc.
2) An efficient spot market could be created as long as there are large numbers of players. These also need to attract program trading using an API as they will be necessary to help efficient market making.
3) This efficient market will help the top1% to kill the 99%.
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November 03, 2017, 09:48:23 PM
 #24

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.
Even when you acquire bitcoin as an "asset", there is a time to buy and a time not to buy.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."
Those rules makes sense and I follow them, but right now bitcoin is incredibly hot, anything makes the price to go up, we have another fork in store and I’m sure the price is going to go up again, so your strategy is good for those holding long term but for those that want profits now, bitcoin is the best way to achieve those short term goals.
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November 03, 2017, 09:57:19 PM
 #25

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.
Even when you acquire bitcoin as an "asset", there is a time to buy and a time not to buy.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."
Those rules makes sense and I follow them, but right now bitcoin is incredibly hot, anything makes the price to go up, we have another fork in store and I’m sure the price is going to go up again, so your strategy is good for those holding long term but for those that want profits now, bitcoin is the best way to achieve those short term goals.
Well as long you have funds to buy more bitcoin just buy the price is soaring high. Still in the long term you can gain profit. Bitcoin is the best investment these days buy and hold in the end profit will gain.
thinair (OP)
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November 04, 2017, 06:49:47 AM
 #26

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.
Even when you acquire bitcoin as an "asset", there is a time to buy and a time not to buy.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."
Those rules makes sense and I follow them, but right now bitcoin is incredibly hot, anything makes the price to go up, we have another fork in store and I’m sure the price is going to go up again, so your strategy is good for those holding long term but for those that want profits now, bitcoin is the best way to achieve those short term goals.
In a sense you are correct that my rules are meant for long term investors who have the view that bitcoin should be held as an asset - even better than physical gold. But even long term investors may have a medium term strategy. If we are certain this current rally is a "pump-and-dump", we may sell half our BTC holding and to buy back at a much lower correction - the wait may even be two years from now. There is risk in ALL strategy. The current rally is vertical and NORMAL bitcoin purists CANNOT push the market up this manner; my guess is some very large powerful players doing the pumping.

My guess is that there may even be a correction back to USD2000 - very brutal. The rally started from May 2016 at USD450 . Even a good asset has a "price in the market's most recent memory." Who knows what this real hard fork on 15 Nov means (I am still thinking about the significance of this fork).

Short term strategy is always the most difficult. If your judgment is wrong, or you move too slowly, you may get caught off-guard and be slaughtered.   
thinair (OP)
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November 04, 2017, 07:04:07 AM
 #27

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.
Even when you acquire bitcoin as an "asset", there is a time to buy and a time not to buy.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."
Those rules makes sense and I follow them, but right now bitcoin is incredibly hot, anything makes the price to go up, we have another fork in store and I’m sure the price is going to go up again, so your strategy is good for those holding long term but for those that want profits now, bitcoin is the best way to achieve those short term goals.
Well as long you have funds to buy more bitcoin just buy the price is soaring high. Still in the long term you can gain profit. Bitcoin is the best investment these days buy and hold in the end profit will gain.
I have a good understanding about why many supports bitcoin. I know how the US Federal Reserve Bank(Fed) works. Many understand how fiat banking is a ripoff of the ordinary citizens and would have preferred a gold standard where banks cannot print money at will.

The first qualities needed of a future successful investor are two :
1) The ability to control one's greed.
2) patience.

If you buy now at this furious market (USD 7000), then you are breaking all two rules at once. I would guess such a person should not consider becoming a successful investor or speculator. He should try for a more stable usual career like becoming a teacher, doctor or engineer.   
thinair (OP)
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November 04, 2017, 07:21:43 AM
 #28

https://www.coindesk.com/price/

Coindesk prices :
Fri 3 Nov 8:00 UTC: Week's high  7400.
Sat 4 Nov 1:30 UTC: tested the 7000 support.

There seems to be a top coming.

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November 04, 2017, 08:26:55 AM
 #29

https://www.coindesk.com/price/

Coindesk prices :
Fri 3 Nov 8:00 UTC: Week's high  7400.
Sat 4 Nov 1:30 UTC: tested the 7000 support.

There seems to be a top coming.


This is not a big deal. I think the price of bitcoin will remain around 6500 to 7500 USD for the next few days. Most probably for a week. But holding bitcoin is still better than selling it because we have to see the price gains once again in the near future. Also I am waiting for B2X. I hope it will increase bitcoin value.
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November 04, 2017, 08:29:59 AM
 #30

It's good if we are not too fixated in a one statement an article only, we really have to conclude from some articles in accordance with the development of reality as well. It's been proven now that bitcoin at $7000, not bad for those who buy bitcoin at the price of $6000.. it can still provide an opportunity to gain profit in investing I guess. And I still believe for the fore (as time goes on), bitcoin price will last longer at $6500 and above it.
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November 04, 2017, 08:44:47 AM
 #31

There are Online Web Wallets who have built in exchange which you can covert your fiat into BTC , BTC to fiat money, Real time basing on their "built in"  rates for BTC and fiat. I am talking about Coins.ph. And yes some people are still purchasing and some of them are people who runs an ICO with bounties who pays on BTC and other people who pays ESCROW, Campaign Managers using BTC.
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November 04, 2017, 08:47:51 AM
 #32

Also,Do not just think Buying Bitcoin is just for it's increasing price but also for those people who want to use it genuinely as a payment/payment type, there are still more reasons for buying Bitcoin, Do not just put in a box and labelled that is just useful as a profit generator.
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November 04, 2017, 08:58:22 AM
 #33

People are constantly buying Bitcoin, but 2 days a Bitcoin can not pass  the $ 7300 level, I think there is a barrier that is not seen on that level. Or 7,259.8 (other barrier)

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November 04, 2017, 11:29:18 AM
 #34

To preddict the market, we have to pay attention to the more stable prices before and after Mt. Gox in 2013/2014.

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.   

So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.

So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.

Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
      "Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.

Another question that others should ask:
      "Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.   

Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"

I think we can buy bitcoin now, because I think the price will rise higher in the bitcoin next time. It can touch the mold $9000-$10000. should you buy and store bitcon will be a very lucrative investment. Good luck!
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November 04, 2017, 01:27:38 PM
 #35

Earlier,it was expected that many bitcoin holders would drop their bitcoins soon after getting free BTG coins to rebuy altcoins.So,there would be a fall in bitcoin price.If it had happened,then bitcoins could have been bought.

But what happened was totally opposite and bitcoin price started increasing steadily now reaching $7,198.The reason may be bitcoin holders would have thought that very soon within two weeks,another hard fork upcoming and so just hold bitcoins till november 15.So,for this reason,you should not buy bitcoins now.

So,you could wait until november 15 and there would be a huge confusion at that time and bitcoin price may fall at that time which would be better for buying it.

If you miss that chance,that may be your last chance of buying cheap bitcoins since segwit 2x is most probably expected to fail to gain more support and so,bitcoin price would surely skyrocket.

So,better use the opportunity nearer to november 15 for buying bitcoins at lower price.

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November 04, 2017, 02:31:25 PM
 #36

Many talk about the 15 Nov hard fork. Even those experts in the tech subforum seem to be uncertain what this HARD fork means technically.

I myself is still trying to unravel what it's true significance is. What I know is there will be two block chains that fork - differs - from the moment at fork - technically at a certain "height" X of the two block chains. After the height  X, blocks would have different transactions. There will be two BTC markets and "spot" quotes. The problem is your unspent  BTC would be in both chains. If both markets continue from height X with the SAME PRICE of $7000:
   
HURRAY! Your wealth doubles after the fork
       
But remember the rule - "THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH". The problem is which of the two blockchains can claim the "right of true succession".

Many here says the central bankers create fiat "out of thin air". Isn't it the same now to assume that the 15 Nov fork can create wealth "out of thin air" - somehow legitimately because BITCOIN IS DIFFERENT.
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November 04, 2017, 02:51:09 PM
 #37

Whatever any post says Bitcoin will be bitcoin, because it has created a positive feel in every situation It has been criticized. Bitcoin answered by action (just look at the price vs time curve). Any price is right price to buy BTC.

The cost of making a bitcoin is about $3000 at the moment. That could be a supporting price.
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November 04, 2017, 03:43:48 PM
 #38

Whatever any post says Bitcoin will be bitcoin, because it has created a positive feel in every situation It has been criticized. Bitcoin answered by action (just look at the price vs time curve). Any price is right price to buy BTC.

The cost of making a bitcoin is about $3000 at the moment. That could be a supporting price.
If the cost of mining gold increases, the mines would be abandoned - gold prices would rise due to no new supply.

If the cost of mining bitcoin increases, the miners stop mining - the bitcoin network would fail to work or response. When bitcoins cannot be transferred, it is a dead bitcoin.

Also, there is a perception that BITCOIN is THE CRYPTO - its future is secured. A thing is only supremely secured if God stamps it "permanently approved". Crypto and blockchain technology may have been "approved" by God - that's why it enters into our life. If a better and messianic crypto comes - bitcoin's worth would go to zero.     
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November 04, 2017, 10:34:03 PM
 #39

Its up to thethe people if they buy bitcoin or not But I suggest it's better if you have extra money in your wallet its bettwr if you buy bitcoin. Because even the price of bitcoin as od now is very high we dont know when the price continue to inceease or when the price decrease.
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November 04, 2017, 10:47:03 PM
 #40

TBH, bitcoin is overpriced. However this doesn't mean it still can't go up.

The hype is so big with bitcoin at the moment that i don't see a reason why $10000 per coin can't be achieved by the end of the year. As long as the media continues to mention bitcoin and investors continue to buy into bitcoin.

But in the end there will definitely be an adjustment that takes price down with it.
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