Don't Buy Bitcoin Now - At USD6000

[thinair]

To preddict the market, we have to pay attention to the more stable prices before and after Mt. Gox in 2013/2014.

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.   

So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.

So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.

Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
      "Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.

Another question that others should ask:
      "Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.   

Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"

[Red-Apple]

i don't know if you wrote this before and now you are copy pasting it but price is >$7100 now

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8.

you should check the charts sometime because you couldn't be more wrong.

oh and by the way, price going from (for example) $0.01 to $1 may seem like nothing to you NOW but it is exactly the same as price going from $1000 to $99,000. that would be the exact same 9900% rise

[thinair]

i don't know if you wrote this before and now you are copy pasting it but price is >$7100 now

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8.

you should check the charts sometime because you couldn't be more wrong.

oh and by the way, price going from (for example) $0.01 to $1 may seem like nothing to you NOW but it is exactly the same as price going from $1000 to $99,000. that would be the exact same 9900% rise

My figures are from :
https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price.
They showed USD 8.00. If you think you have the data, just show - don't do one-liner. Share your great knowledge with the rest of us.

I don't care about the USD 7100 figure "now". I suspect you are the type trying to talk the market up.

[QHoster.]

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.

[thinair]

It was suggested not to use Bitcoin as asset.

Even when you acquire bitcoin as an "asset", there is a time to buy and a time not to buy.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Panicking bears, shills & trolls. I guess it’s their season now the price is rising at a rapid speed. Now is definitely the time to buy if you’re not in already. Bitcoin is going to the moon, nice try though OP.

[allocatespetrified]

To preddict the market, we have to pay attention to the more stable prices before and after Mt. Gox in 2013/2014.

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.   

So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.

So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.

Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
      "Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.

Another question that others should ask:
      "Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.   

Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"

Thanks for all this research,  honestly I'm going to try and sell my btc,  here's hoping that there are buyers.  

[leex1528]

I agree that you probably shouldn't buy right now. 

But I do have to throw an argument in, I think in the long run Buying now you will still be able to make money.  In the short term I do anticipate the price going down quite a bit, and I would recommend pouncing on it then.  In less than 2 years we will see Bitcoin at or over 10,000 per coin.  So in the long run you are going to make money no matter what.

[thinair]

I agree that you probably shouldn't buy right now. 

But I do have to throw an argument in, I think in the long run Buying now you will still be able to make money.  In the short term I do anticipate the price going down quite a bit, and I would recommend pouncing on it then.  In less than 2 years we will see Bitcoin at or over 10,000 per coin.  So in the long run you are going to make money no matter what.

There is the golden rule:
"Sell when others are buying or when the market is hot"
"Buy when everyone is selling or when the market is cold."

[procryptoguy]

Buy at anypoint untill 13th of november ,cause people will buy untill then no matter what.
Altcoin will drop by price and btc will be high as usal.
So buy now and donot re great. 

[dasdo]

Yes, I also agree that now you should not buy bitcoin when it is at the peak of the price. We need to wait a bit and I think in the near future there will be a correction to 4000-4500 $. But it is not exactly.

[StreakW]

depending for people bro, even if he buy BTC now, he still profitable in the future
if not buy now, when?? when the price over $6000, bitcoin price will go to the moon

[Jet Cash]

Too late - I've just withdrawn the money in my domain sales account, and I've taken it in Bitcoin. I've already lost a bit by waiting for the correction, so I've decided not to wait in the future. I'm not spending the Bitcoin, it's all savings, so I expect the price will be higher even if it drops over the next couple of weeks.

[thinair]

Buy at anypoint untill 13th of november ,cause people will buy untill then no matter what.
Altcoin will drop by price and btc will be high as usal.
So buy now and donot re great. 

A hard fork means your BTC would now be in both blockchains; but it is simple common sense that one of the two ledger must be invalidated in order that bitcoin is to be trusted - and survive. If the two forks last for years and I have my UTXO (unspent coins) in both ledger, that means both ledgers have been compromised. One must die off! Or one becomes the alt coin.       

There is no "free lunch" - never! Any "free forked coins" must come with a risk; it is a matter of good judgment over bad or luck.

After a fork, there are double supply of coins with two blockchains. There is a greater propensity to have greater sell pressure at each blockchain. But the number of new buyers per blockchain is halved. So it means a 50% or more price re-evaluation per blockchain - at USD 3000. 

[thinair]

There is a simple strategy to make money by just a simple controlled buying and selling strategy. It works for stocks, forex as well as for bitcoins - for the super rich.

1) First acquire large amount of bitcoins. They are now the so called whales (those owning large number of BTC) who are the 1% very intelligent, sharp  and very rich speculators - think George Soros. They are also smart to know that there are very alluring aspect of bitcoins to the small 99 % mass speculators/investors.
2) Use the simple : "Buy Furious Sell Patiently Strategy" repeatedly over a period.
It works this way.
a) Plan pushing the market up - say for a year (bitcoin has risen from May 2016 till present  for 1½ years).
b) Say for a 16 hr trading cycle per day, buy  X BTC in 4 hr EVENLY. Sell the same X BTC in the next 12 hr EVENLY - like a robot.
c) Repeat the same pattern of buying in a short period and off-loading the same amount in a much longer period. The pattern of 16 hr cycles per day is just a suggestion. It could be buying in 1 day and off loading in the next 3 days the same number BTC.
d) In this manner, throughout the 1 - 1½ year, the whale manipulators  do not increase its holding of BTC.
This strategy in general will make the whales a profit as - on average - he would be buying low and selling high for 1½ years WITHOUT the need to increase his BTC holdings.   
e) NOW, after the 1½ year of pushing up the market, the price should be at its peak - USD 7000.
f) It is now the time for the SLOW KILL.
Use the strategy of OFF LOADING HIS large holding of BTC - over a long period of 3 YEARS :
SELL A LARGE AMOUNT EVENLY OVER 3 YEARS:
   Sell X BTC per day for 3 years.     
No strategy needed. Just do it as if by robots. He would - on average - be selling at highs what he bought at lows. It is not Quantum Mechanics, but simple averaging and probabilities. 

That's how the top 1% outplays the other 99%.

[Anonymous Kid]

Yes, I also agree that now you should not buy bitcoin when it is at the peak of the price. We need to wait a bit and I think in the near future there will be a correction to 4000-4500 $. But it is not exactly.

Possibly...

[Washball]

Why not, just buy as much bitcoins as you can. The peak is not there yet, maybe next year. It will now rise to 10K and much higher next year. Buy and hold and you'll make a fortune.

[matuson]

Yes, I also agree that now you should not buy bitcoin when it is at the peak of the price. We need to wait a bit and I think in the near future there will be a correction to 4000-4500 $. But it is not exactly.

Possibly...

With every rise in the price of bitcoin aktiviziruyutsya trolls. They do not know that this attack will not stop? But even if we assume that bitcoin price will drop to $ 4,000, that would be 4 times the price rise for the year. As it will stop new users. Give me an alternative to bitcoin. It is not and therefore, bitcoin is coming.

[Proficiency]

Yes, I also agree that now you should not buy bitcoin when it is at the peak of the price. We need to wait a bit and I think in the near future there will be a correction to 4000-4500 $. But it is not exactly.

Possibly...

With every rise in the price of bitcoin aktiviziruyutsya trolls. They do not know that this attack will not stop? But even if we assume that bitcoin price will drop to $ 4,000, that would be 4 times the price rise for the year. As it will stop new users. Give me an alternative to bitcoin. It is not and therefore, bitcoin is coming.

You are so right!
I think the price will go up!

[thinair]

Why not, just buy as much bitcoins as you can. The peak is not there yet, maybe next year. It will now rise to 10K and much higher next year. Buy and hold and you'll make a fortune.

You are right. If you know it will rise to 10,000, you should buy now at 7000 and sell at 10,000.

This is the strategy call : "buy low sell high"