Inside The November Fork and EXACTLY Which Coin you Should Back.

Hey my fellow cryptowarrriors -

The upcoming Nov fork has caused a bit of turmoil the market. BTC's price is surging, atls were dropping, people were seconding guessing Bitcoin Cash, some were even picking up Bitcoin Gold - but EVERYONE wants to know....

What the heck should I be doing to make the most money? Should I be in X or Y? What will this mean for Bitcoin? Should I get out now and run back to stocks?

I will go over some facts - outline whats going on and then give my thoughts behind whats happening in the market and whats likely to happen.

With less than a dozen days left before the SegWit2X fork, I thought I'd start gathering some facts before I start forming personal opinions and speculative conclusions. I refer to the SegWit1X chain as 1X and the SegWit2X chain as 2X for simplicity, and I have looked for very simple facts and safe assumptions. Here are the dots that I gathered:

• Fork at Block 494,784. Approximate date = 16th of November.

• The New York Agreement: The NYA involved parties representing about 83% of the then hashing power who all agreed to both hardforks - one for SegWit and another for an increased block size of 2MB (2X) within 6 months of the former. Further details in reference 1.

• It is safe to assume that miners will only mine the most profitable chain (possibly several chains in differing proportions).

• If whales pump a single chain it will gain more value. If this happens, miners will be more inclined to mine that particular chain only. This will result in the other chain(s)potentially losing overall mining attractiveness.

• 1X will continue to have a 1MB block and SegWit;

• 2X will have a 2MB block and SegWit;

• Bitcoin Cash (Just for info right now) currently has an 8 MB block with NO SegWit;

• Current Price Status (Futures) on BitFinex: 2X/BTC = 0.17; 1X/BTC = 0.83

• Current Mining Status: 2X = Around 85% of blocks are signalling for 2X.

• Lower mining power chain: Likely to be 1X. Fees likely to be extremely high as not many miners. Difficulty adjustment could take a few weeks, if not months. Until then it will be very difficult to transfer funds.

• Double-spending: Miners (from 2X) will have an ability and incentive to double-spend on the minority chain (lower mining power chain). If you have huge mining power, you can allocate some of it to just double-spend on the minority chain. Some people will possibly lose confidence in the minority chain as a result.

• Replay-Protection: Neither 1X nor 2X currently have replay protection.

Now what does all this mean

Very little.

Let me explain.....

Do a little experiment with me please. Think of the 1st word that comes to mind when I ask the following:

1. Name a tissue.
2. Name a soda.
3. What is the best brand of shoe?

-----

Likely you gave Kleenex, Pepsi/Coke and Nike/Rebook answers right?

Why?

Are they REALLY the best or are they the ones we KNOW? The brands thats resonate as "safe" choices with us?

Is the forked version of Bitcoin going to be better?
Yes. Its a better chain and I expect money to follow into it in the futures market then see a BIG dump for the first 2 days , then pick back up to 60-75% of the ATH....then slowly fade out to be a high priced ALT.

But how come? Arent over 85% of the miners are signaling for the forked chain!
Yes again my friend. However - like Bitcoin Cash, the bulk of the value is likely to be accrued in the lead up to the fork, not in the actual practicality of the forks implementations. The NYA agreement isnt binding and recent independent polls show that the REAL support is about 63% and fading.

If you are a miner and you hold a ton of Bitcoin and are going to get a ton of free forked coins , wouldn't you want everyone to think you are going to be mining that chain. Then the price gets driven up and you can sell off a large portion.

But come on - people are smart and they see that the problem the fork is solving is a fundamental issue with Bitcoin

Yes they are. However lets face a fact. Bitcoin is a store of value. I own many many BTC and have never spend 1 on a purchase. Contrary to what the world believes, the bulk of Bitcoins are held by about 300,000 people. And we aint spending them on flights to Oklahoma. We are HODLING them. The majority of Bitcoin holders do not own 1 full coin.

Being a store of value, the actual problems that the fork solves, are fairly immaterial in my opinion. Also Vertcoin is a better version of the fork and , if people are REALLY smart, they will gravitate to VTC (disclaimer, I have VTC) as a practical use tradable coin.

Big money is a coming

The announcement of the CME adding futures of Bitcoin, really did something amazing - it gave some credibility to the ancients that run the banking and investing word. I deal with some of these guys on a daily basis and can attest that our phone has been ringing off the hook with questions about SEC regulations and pending legislation - hedge funds and the like.

I can tell you right now - it took 9 years for them to start the giant slush fund of shitty fiat to roll into Bitcoin - its gonna take them 9 more before they even think about buying something that isnt BITCOIN.

So what does this all mean?
I get it. Fundamentally, the split is good. the GPU mining, the added decentralization, the bigger blocks, etc etc. But while we may be ready for it - the other 99.94% of people that are not into bitcoin yet, but will be soon (hopefully) arent.

I advise to sell off 50% of your x2 fork and hold the other 50% as a hedged bet.

In any event - these are my 2 cents . Hope you found it informative and happy trading!