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Author Topic: BitCoin Future  (Read 963 times)
walidzohair
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June 28, 2011, 11:40:12 AM
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After Seeing the latest hacks and price effects I started to think that BTC prices are directly related to the "daily transaction volume" which reflects the "need" for this new revolutionary currency and hence the pricing and the future of this experimental software.

I know it will be long (really long like in 10 years) time before miners(= the network and the future of BTC) start earning their fees from transaction fees rather than new blocks. Yet "daily transaction's volume" is the major criteria for "how this project is doing?"

But anyways, right now I can imagine the transaction's volume "demand" is split between two major things:

1) Black markets like SilkRoad/Hack,..etc. which is not the future and is to be shut down and traced 'soon'. and this is a "positive demand".

2) Pooled mining rewarding. which again is a "passive demand".

3) Exchange Trading, i.e. trading transactions in places like mtgox and tradehill. yet another "passive demand" as it include no services or goods.

4) Few are the places that accept BTC and have considerably important traffic that would reflect on the total network.


It would be nice to see something more advanced than the usual block explorer/bitcoin watch to reflect the total network daily transaction volume and maybe point out some major stock markets in a category like view (polled mining rewarding share, black markets share, amazoncoin , google coinout shares Smiley .. etc).

Again, the daily transaction volume reflecting the adoption of this commodity/fiat money by major players or even countries is the cross road for this project to Either CHANGE THE WORLD or at least introduce new concept with decent shares of the world daily commerce volumes OR to be a remarkable HISTORY lesson with mid-range success ended by painful bubble.

I am trying to make it non-technical/non-financial in this post and its comments .. just the average Joe scope.

Please leave comments and IDEAS.

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phatsphere
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June 28, 2011, 11:49:26 AM
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well, i thought it's about futures. to increase the btc adoption of merchants ("positive demand" Huh), one needs futures. i.e. a website where a merchant can "negotiate" a contract in a way like:

"On the 1st of the next month [or in 2 months, whatever], i'm sending you up to 100 btc. no matter where the exchange rates are then, now, or in between, i'll get $15 [or 10 or 20, whatever] for each BTC."

unless there is a service like that (that's really working and not cheating), merchants will have a hard time.
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June 28, 2011, 11:50:13 AM
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It would be nice to see something more advanced than the usual block explorer/bitcoin watch to reflect the total network daily transaction volume and maybe point out some major stock markets in a category like view (polled mining rewarding share, black markets share, amazoncoin , google coinout shares Smiley .. etc).
I would like to see a black market exchange ticker, that would be kewl!

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
walidzohair
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June 28, 2011, 02:30:31 PM
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It would be nice to see something more advanced than the usual block explorer/bitcoin watch to reflect the total network daily transaction volume and maybe point out some major stock markets in a category like view (polled mining rewarding share, black markets share, amazoncoin , google coinout shares Smiley .. etc).
I would like to see a black market exchange ticker, that would be kewl!

Cheesy well black market can be under "others" category or something like "weed market" Tongue
walidzohair
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June 28, 2011, 02:36:41 PM
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Anyway , According to the BTC watch .. there are 4M BTC sent in the last 24 hour in 10k transactions out of the total of 6M BTC ! - and we wounder why it is high volatile market.

I wounder if there is any kind of monopoly .
DamienBlack
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June 28, 2011, 02:41:05 PM
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3) Exchange Trading, i.e. trading transactions in places like mtgox and tradehill. yet another "passive demand" as it include no services or goods.

I would like to point out that one of bitcoins main features is the ability to transfer money. Some exchanges are what you would call "passive demand". But if someone is trying to get $50,000 from Russia to the US, then these exchanges are "positive demand".

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walidzohair
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June 28, 2011, 04:25:44 PM
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[/quote]

 But if someone is trying to get $50,000 from Russia to the US, then these exchanges are "positive demand".
[/quote]

I agree. But usually that would be direct BTC send instead of exchange fees. well that make sense. But again you are right .. in many cases going through an exchange would be more porfessional. Yet the question what is the percentage of "money transfers" done using exchanges ? or does it all just trading the coin against itself and its prices ?
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