"The dollar does not fall, it just takes momentum".
While it may rise against your local currency, the dollar obviously falls relative to goods and services just about all the time for the last 100 years.
Since the dollar keeps falling, BTC will continue to "rise" even if its value relative to goods and services stays approximately the same, because it is measured against
fiat currency. So if people value BTC as high as they do now in 50 years, they'll most likely think that the price has more than doubled, even though it's actually stayed the same.
I think this is quite true for bitcoin at this moment
I think it's impossible to tell when a bear market is going to come, but it usually happens when people are the most complacent.