Bitcoin Global Road Map 2017-2028

[Al Ien]

Suggested topic is devoted to discussion of Global Road Map of Bitcoin BTC



Based on following factors (I-IV) suggested for discussion is the Bitcoin Global Road Map (V).


I Number of active bitcoin wallets

According to Mr.Woo's http://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/ research, bitcoin users double every 12 months. Mr. Woo makes corrections (S curve) based on real world human behaviour. Here comes wild idea that algorythms, based on mathematics and Laws of Universe are already changing real world human behaviour. Through smartphones, computers and gadgets they force us to move quicker to live more intense lives. They change us, attuning human schedule to Rythms of Universe, hence increasing people's efficiency.



II Halvings schedule (next is on June 12 2020) - recalculating of network difficulty

The network started on January 3 2009. First halving took place in 2012 which led to all time high of more than $1000 in November 2013. So, after halving bitcoin price can increase 10 fold. After next halving in 2016 we witnessed the power of third wave of bitcoin evolution in November 2017, when bitcoin rocketed to $7,900 and peaked $12,400 in Zimbabwe.
After next halving, which means that emission of bitcoin slows down and miners will be rewarded only 6.25 bitcoins (now 12.5) for one mined block. Which increases the cost of every mined coin. Because of the limited coins supply increases the price.


III Achievements of past 9 years of bitcoin existence

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/ 183 times Bitcoin could die. No other technology/product/startup is known that could survive under such huge pressure. That shows mathematical correctness of the protocol, flexibility and stability of Bitcoin Protocol. That means Bitcoin can evolutionate. It can change. Like a snake that gets rid of old skin, bitcoin is moving further, leaving its forks behind. Open to whole world's pressure, represented by banks, governments and financial institutions from outside and numerous challenges in form of soft and hard forks from inside, Bitcoin became capable to digest these pressures in the process of becoming holistic (i.e. indestructable) technology.

The Bitcoin Technology (Protocol) is so advanced and multifaced (combined knowlegde from Game Theory, Economics, Programming, Finance, Cryptography, Quantum Mechanics) that still there are only a few people who completely understand this technology. Since the Bitcoin building is so huge, some people see only separate floors of this building. Some see financial implications. Some see social implications. Some see that this technology can change the world completely - there will be no need in banks, governments, Systems. Some see the future of the technology in VR and IOT. Some call it digital gold. Some - digital currency. Some - digital assets. Probably we see birth of new class of asset, to which quite another approach should be taken by regulators. It is nither currency nor goods. It is all together, all kinds of assets represented in one digital form. 
The Technology is self-balancing, coming to dynamic equilibrium from any internal or external impulse, be it soft/hard forks or governmental pressure/attacks, between 4-5 parties, such as Developers, Wallets (People interacting with this technology), Finance (financial institutions, institutional investors), Miners and IoT in the future (yes, the Robots). Bitcoins can be traded 24x7, time moves 20 times faster in the world of Bitcoin, which can accelerate growth of human economics.



IV Hello New World !!!!

Bitcoin technology gives you freedom. Independence. But it also has another side of the coin - Responsibility. Personal. You are responsible for your money and if you were not conscious building cryptocurrency portofolio you can loose your funds. If you transfer to wrong address, you can't undo. No banks can help. No insurance company. You bear all the risks.
That increases awareness. That leads to forming many people making decision to take their Fate into their own hands. To be independent from the governments and banks. To have their own opinion how to live their lives. That means new way of living. No borders. Decentralised education, stimulating people to think independently to make decisions by themselves. Probably there will be merging of old (centralized) and new (decentralized) approaches in the world. Decentralization (New World) offers Competition to old centralized world, which can lead to mutual growth in the dance of Evolution.



V Bitcoin Global Road Map

---------------------------1 Birth of Bitcoin---------------------------

2007            Bitcoin Design and Coding
2008            October - White paper published

---------------------------2 Bitcoin's childhood------------------------

2009 Year 1. January - genesis (first) block mined. Year 1 (started from October 31 2008)
2010 Year 2. Bitcoin exchanges and bitcoin exchange rate established
2011 Year 3. Satoshi Nakamoto leaves the project, as it became self-sustainable
2012 Year 4. First Halving.
2013 Year 5. November $1000 peak
2014 Year 6. Massive correction 
2015 Year 7. Gaining stability
2016 Year 8. Second Halving. Segwit
2017 Year 9. Segwit 2x.
                   Around 0.2% of people (10-15 mln) using Bitcoin 
                   80% of coins mined.
                   Global acceptance among institutional investors.
                   By the Year 10 (November and December 2017) all time high $7,900

---------------------------3 Sky (Bitcoin's adulthood )--------------------------

2018 Year 10. $14,000-$27,000 (Fifth wave by Elliot)
2019 Year 11. Technologies such as Lightning Network (momentary payments, no 10 min waiting) are implemented in
                      the second layer of Bitcoin protocol.
                      Next Segwit 3.
                      Around 1% of people using Bitcoin.
                      Massive correction (50%+)
2020 Year 12. Third Halving.
                      Around 2% of people using Bitcoin.
                      Recovery and movement to 6 digits.
2021 Year 13. Around 4% of people using Bitcoin.
                     This year we will see 6 digits.
                     $100,000 per Bitcoin
2022 Year 14. Around 7% of people using Bitcoin.
                     Consensus with banks and governments - they Must Change to Survive.
                     Bitcoin wons this competition and banks/governments are forced to demonopolize themselves and change
                     their Attitude - State is People's Servant. State has to Serve People. 
2023 Year 15. Around 12% of people using Bitcoin

------------------------4 Space (Bitcoin's maturity) -------------------------------------

2024 Year 16. Fourth Halving?
                     Around 25% people using Bitcoin.
                     Blockchain technologies massively implemented
2025 Year 17. $1 Mln per bitcoin.
                     50%+ people using Bitcoin.
                     Bitcoin goes into Space (literally, to Mars).
                     Blockstream orbital sattelites broadcast bitcoin transactions worldwide and in the entire Solar System.
                     Technologies such as Atomic Swaps are implemented in top cryptocurrencies.
2026 Year 18. Segwit 4.
                     Massive correction.
2027 Year 19. Recovery.
2028 Year 20. Fifth Halving? 80%+ of people using Bitcoin.
                     Over $10 mln per bitcoin.
                     Irreversable changes (80 - 20 Law) in Human Society driven by Bitcoin technology.
                     Social changes.
                     Change in System of Values of Man.

------------------------- 5 Hello New World---------------------------------------------------

2032 Year 24. New generation (since 2012) is formed.
                     Total acceptance of bitcoin by all people.
                     Total death of fiat money.
                     With the evolution of AI possible human race economics growth up to 10 times.
                     $100 mln per bitcoin.
                     1 satoshi = 1 usd.
                     2,000 trillion dollar human race economics (now equals to 70 trillion dollars ) potential growth (AI, IOT,
                     Space industry etc.)

[davis196]

Pretty interesting post.Did you copypaste this from some article?
I will bookmark this thread and read it every year to check wether or not your predictions are true.
You are very optimisitc about the future.What if a mass cryptocurrency ban happens and cryptocurrencies are used only across the darknet?

[Paranuatu]

Hod do we get from this:

                  Around 0.2% of people (10-15 mln) using Bitcoin
                   80% of coins mined.

To 100% of people using bitcoin.

Is 98,8% of all people supposed to only benefit from the 20% of bitcoin left? Be left at the mnercy of the 0,2%? Other than that,  in the end it will be so difficult to mine that if cryptocurrency was to become a global thing, mining would take a significant portion of world electrical consumption.

[hugeblack]

till now all numbers given by Economics was wrong no one was think price will up to 7,900$ .

if we back to 2016 all say bitcoin died and can’t move up till price up to 3,000$ then say it is bubble and now many say bitcoin is burn money and must open our virtual money (like Russia ).

So any one say he can know bitcoin price is Lying Because it Depend on Simple Demand and Supply law .

BTW great post and nice tracking 

[Al Ien]

Pretty interesting post.Did you copypaste this from some article?
I will bookmark this thread and read it every year to check wether or not your predictions are true. Grin
You are very optimisitc about the future.What if a mass cryptocurrency ban happens and cryptocurrencies are used only across the darknet?

Thank you.
Just my subjective point of view on cryptocurrencies.
It is too late for global cryptocurrency ban. Ginny is already out of the bottle. Many states such as Japan and Swiss have realized that this technology is the future. So in case of cryptocurrency ban in let's say China a lot of cryptomoney will flow away to another jurisdiction (Japan for instance). This technology represents Fourth Industrial Revolution and every revolution leads to Change. To Redistribution of global wealth. And in this race only competitive states with open mind thinking will win.
Cryptocurrency is the next generation of money.
This complies with new cycle of human history - VR (AI, IOT, Robots, Google, Facebook etc). People have successfully explored Reality and in this cycle of human race evolution the task is to explore Virtuality (VR). This will give 1000x-100x boost to human race economics. Paper money are no good in Virtuality as well as gold, so for this humanrace economics quantum leap there is a need in a digital currency.
 First generation of money was cauri shells.
Second - gold.
Third - paper money
Fourth - digital money

[Paranuatu]

Pretty interesting post.Did you copypaste this from some article?
I will bookmark this thread and read it every year to check wether or not your predictions are true. Grin
You are very optimisitc about the future.What if a mass cryptocurrency ban happens and cryptocurrencies are used only across the darknet?

Thank you.
Just my subjective point of view on cryptocurrencies.
It is too late for global cryptocurrency ban. Ginny is already out of the bottle. Many states such as Japan and Swiss have realized that this technology is the future. So in case of cryptocurrency ban in let's say China a lot of cryptomoney will flow away to another jurisdiction (Japan for instance). This technology represents Fourth Industrial Revolution and every revolution leads to Change. To Redistribution of global wealth. And in this race only competitive states with open mind thinking will win.
Cryptocurrency is the next generation of money.
This complies with new cycle of human history - VR (AI, IOT, Robots, Google, Facebook etc). People have successfully explored Reality and in this cycle of human race evolution the task is to explore Virtuality (VR). This will give 1000x-100x boost to human race economics. Paper money are no good in Virtuality as well as gold, so for this humanrace economics quantum leap there is a need in a digital currency.
 First generation of money was cauri shells.
Second - gold.
Third - paper money
Fourth - digital money

We have had digital money, so to speak, for some decades now. The difference between VISA and bitcoin is that is is decentralized, however transactions are much slower and limited, fees much more expensive.

Is decentralization really such benefit that the whole world economy should shift to bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies?). I don't think so.

[Al Ien]

Hod do we get from this:

                  Around 0.2% of people (10-15 mln) using Bitcoin
                   80% of coins mined.

To 100% of people using bitcoin.

Is 98,8% of all people supposed to only benefit from the 20% of bitcoin left? Be left at the mnercy of the 0,2%? Other than that,  in the end it will be so difficult to mine that if cryptocurrency was to become a global thing, mining would take a significant portion of world electrical consumption.

Here is interesting moments.
This year #tothemoon (from $1000 to $8000, global interest to blockchain technology, a lot of governments started to seriously study this technology) rally happened partly because almost 80% of all coins have already been mined. So, 17 millions of bitcoins already distributed among 10-15 million people.

[CryptosapienZA]

Very interesting post. You have obviously taken a lot of time thinking this through. I can't say I disagree with anything you have stipulated. I hope it all come through. It would be nice to have something like this coming directly from Core so we know exactly where bitcoin is going. Right now us ordinary folk know nothing about what's happening with development.

[Al Ien]

DISCLAIMER

Above mentioned bitcoin price estimates represent subjective point of view of author and can not be basement for your financial decisions concerning above mentioned estimates. The figures are approximates representing stages of bitcoin evolution. Author bears no responsibility for any financial and ideological loss caused by this article.
 

[Al Ien]

Very interesting post. You have obviously taken a lot of time thinking this through. I can't say I disagree with anything you have stipulated. I hope it all come through. It would be nice to have something like this coming directly from Core so we know exactly where bitcoin is going. Right now us ordinary folk know nothing about what's happening with development.

Also amazed with this technology.
Tried to look at the whole picture, not zooming concrete figures but looking rather long term (and beyond :-))
Wanted to outline the key stages of this technology acceptance (and development) by people.