hashrate is dropping below prediction

[beaconpcguru]

BFL stopped mining on their own and starts shipping? j/k

^^^ THIS ^^^

seriously all of sudden a 500GHash unit shows up???

I'm going with these guys... BFL mined the bejesus out of customer machines and took it to the very brink of insanity/underhandedness. 

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[coinnewb]

The bids already closed, but do you guys think this will have true or false outcome?

"On July 1st, 2013, Bitcoin mining difficulty will be higher than 20,000,000."
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1021

[Voodah]

BFL stopped mining on their own and starts shipping? j/k

Could be Avalon stop mining with customer machine too..

This right here.

[EuroTrash]

Difficulty "recession" is knocking at the door.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

See last 120 blocks...

[Voodah]

Difficulty "recession" is knocking at the door.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

See last 120 blocks...

This rather interesting, but don't forget ASIC have only started to ship.. between avalon, bfl, and knc there are probably tens of thousands of units (ordered) waiting to ship...

[notme]

Difficulty "recession" is knocking at the door.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

See last 120 blocks...

This rather interesting, but don't forget ASIC have only started to ship.. between avalon, bfl, and knc there are probably tens of thousands of units (ordered) waiting to ship...

Meanwhile, if you order from ASICMiner, you can have your hardware within a few days.

[EuroTrash]

Difficulty "recession" is knocking at the door.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

See last 120 blocks...

This rather interesting, but don't forget ASIC have only started to ship.. between avalon, bfl, and knc there are probably tens of thousands of units (ordered) waiting to ship...

Meanwhile, if you order from ASICMiner, you can have your hardware within a few days.

Methinks: so maybe 3 major ASICs producers have coincidentally stopped their pre-shipping "burnin tests", more or less around the same time.

[notme]

Difficulty "recession" is knocking at the door.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

See last 120 blocks...

This rather interesting, but don't forget ASIC have only started to ship.. between avalon, bfl, and knc there are probably tens of thousands of units (ordered) waiting to ship...

Meanwhile, if you order from ASICMiner, you can have your hardware within a few days.

Methinks: so maybe 3 major ASICs producers have coincidentally stopped their pre-shipping "burnin tests", more or less around the same time.

KNC doesn't even have chips yet... Avalon has been recently exposed as mining with customer hardware with some credible evidence.  BFL claims they don't burn-in on bitcoin production net, but we all know what their word is worth.

[ehoffman]

BFL claims they don't burn-in on bitcoin production net, but we all know what their word is worth.

  +1 on that last sentence!

Still waiting for my single...  Should ship sometime...  Probably in one of the 'next week' that happen to fall within this year

[MJGrae]

ASICMiner shut off roughly 15 TH/s worth of mining equipment in the past 3 days. That is more than 10% of the world's hash power. That definitely had a big impact on it. I'm not sure why they did it by the way. It could be network or hardware problems, or maybe they don't want the difficulty to rise too much higher yet.

If this is true (and I have no clue if it is) I wonder if they're trying to work the difficulty in order to help those purchasing their USB Block Erupters. There's been a lot of controversy as to whether they would ever earn an ROI at the prices they were selling at so I could totally see ASICMINER trying to lame-duck the difficulty in order to protect the interests of those who bought their product.

If this were the case, I would commend ASICMINER for looking out for their customers.

Purely hypothetical, just an interesting thought.

[derpinheimer]

ASICMiner shut off roughly 15 TH/s worth of mining equipment in the past 3 days. That is more than 10% of the world's hash power. That definitely had a big impact on it. I'm not sure why they did it by the way. It could be network or hardware problems, or maybe they don't want the difficulty to rise too much higher yet.

If this is true (and I have no clue if it is) I wonder if they're trying to work the difficulty in order to help those purchasing their USB Block Erupters. There's been a lot of controversy as to whether they would ever earn an ROI at the prices they were selling at so I could totally see ASICMINER trying to lame-duck the difficulty in order to protect the interests of those who bought their product.

If this were the case, I would commend ASICMINER for looking out for their customers.

Purely hypothetical, just an interesting thought.

Losing out on $36000/day just to help a few people out? They'd have to really care about their customers for that.

[andrewsg]

The bids already closed, but do you guys think this will have true or false outcome?

"On July 1st, 2013, Bitcoin mining difficulty will be higher than 20,000,000."
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1021

True, there will be one retarget between now and July 1 and unless something very unexpected happens to the hashrate the new diff will be between 20 and 21m.

[mp420]

Could be just Northern Hemisphere summer and high temperatures. I wouldn't start drawing any economic conclusions here.

If difficulty drops low enough and price stays high, the GPU folks will turn their rigs back on.

[ehoffman]

Don't worry son...  Difficulty will rise...  As the ASIC start shipping  I think that whatever the BTC price does, at this point, just filling the pre-orders, the hashrate will rise.  And now, ASIC is a lot more profitable, power consumption vs return income.  So, even if price goes to 50$, or even 10$, ASIC will come!

If it were pre-ASIC era, then it would be another story.  Not a lot of folks are FPGA-mining.  GPU then would be the dominant miners.  But now, I don't think loosing even 50% of the GPU would make more then a dent on long term.  Well, in fact it is to be expected that GPU will phase out, unless BTC goes to 1000$ or LTC and other scrypt coins raise relative to BTC (in which case we'll see GPU migration).  But until now, it's pretty staying near 1 to 1.

Diff. is taking a small nap before it boom right now.  Expect the next weeks to be 'fun'

[Voodah]

Don't worry son...  Difficulty will rise...  As the ASIC start shipping  I think that whatever the BTC price does, at this point, just filling the pre-orders, the hashrate will rise.  And now, ASIC is a lot more profitable, power consumption vs return income.  So, even if price goes to 50$, or even 10$, ASIC will come!

If it were pre-ASIC era, then it would be another story.  Not a lot of folks are FPGA-mining.  GPU then would be the dominant miners.  But now, I don't think loosing even 50% of the GPU would make more then a dent on long term.  Well, in fact it is to be expected that GPU will phase out, unless BTC goes to 1000$ or LTC and other scrypt coins raise relative to BTC (in which case we'll see GPU migration).  But until now, it's pretty staying near 1 to 1.

Diff. is taking a small nap before it boom right now.  Expect the next weeks to be 'fun'

You're right as to the fact ASIC's have only started, and no matter what, diff will go along. We're only seeing some caution now, where all companies have been accused (and proven) to excessively burn in their products, and they have now stopped doing it (or maybe still doing it but a much lighter rate..)

BUT, I think you're definitely wrong on the profitable assessment. In fact, if you take the current prices and delivery times of all ASIC suppliers, they only ones that will get ROI are the KNC ones due to the extreme difference in price; and only if (and it's a big if) they ship no more than 1 or 2 months late. Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.

[MJGrae]

ASICMiner shut off roughly 15 TH/s worth of mining equipment in the past 3 days. That is more than 10% of the world's hash power. That definitely had a big impact on it. I'm not sure why they did it by the way. It could be network or hardware problems, or maybe they don't want the difficulty to rise too much higher yet.

If this is true (and I have no clue if it is) I wonder if they're trying to work the difficulty in order to help those purchasing their USB Block Erupters. There's been a lot of controversy as to whether they would ever earn an ROI at the prices they were selling at so I could totally see ASICMINER trying to lame-duck the difficulty in order to protect the interests of those who bought their product.

If this were the case, I would commend ASICMINER for looking out for their customers.

Purely hypothetical, just an interesting thought.

Losing out on $36000/day just to help a few people out? They'd have to really care about their customers for that.

Not necessarily care about their customers. But imagine the future losses in sales from people burnt by their USB ASICs if they can't at least pay for themselves because the company that they purchased the hardware from is too big of a player. Not saying it would definitely balance out, but it might.

[ehoffman]

Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.

So true...  I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago...  I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now.  Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI.

The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC.  All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today.  And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now.  The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too.  Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty.

[Voodah]

Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.

So true...  I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago...  I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now.  Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI.

The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC.  All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today.  And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now.  The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too.  Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty.

Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices.

So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down.

Looking bleak.

[notme]

Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.

So true...  I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago...  I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now.  Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI.

The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC.  All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today.  And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now.  The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too.  Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty.

Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices.

So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down.

Looking bleak.

ASICMiner is the only one shipping with reasonable lead times.  They sell for BTC.  Anyone selling for USD is only selling you a preorder.

[Voodah]

Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.

So true...  I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago...  I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now.  Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI.

The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC.  All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today.  And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now.  The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too.  Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty.

Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices.

So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down.

Looking bleak.

ASICMiner is the only one shipping with reasonable lead times.  They sell for BTC.  Anyone selling for USD is only selling you a preorder.

Yeah but they are not exempt from the crime. Take for example the usb miners they are selling right now. Approximately 1btc according to the groupbuy currently ongoing.

1btc = 330mh

That's absolutely ridiculous. That much hashing power with the current (somewhat slowed down) diff rate growth will never generate 1 btc, never ever.