Bitcoin tech-analysis,the next wave (Cup and Handle formation)

[vssa]

I want to share with you all one of my observations about the latest bitcoin price patterns that I see,Cup and Handle formation(http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp),this indicates a change in trend.
A brack above the 113 level should take the price to around 125 min and 160 max price target ,(112 high -88 low*2.61).
IMG-
This scenario should play itself in a 1-4 days.

I must say that it is not my first year in the market and I have made some bold calls before, Which played themselves very well:

 Called the 0.0055 Bottom on LTC/BTC-https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157440.msg1667644#msg1667644
 Called the buy signal on 3.17.2013 at 48.15 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154119.msg1633552#msg1633552
 Called the correction from 49 to 33 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149817.msg1591419#msg1591419
 Called the rally from 5.2 on 5.31.2012 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96878.msg1067596#msg1067596,But that one was almost to easy...

Also I would like to recommend using this trading tools which I personally find very useful-
https://icbit.se/ and https://www.bitfinex.com/

Will be glad to here some feedback from you and if you find this analysis useful and you would like to see more posts of this type from me please donate to:
BTC:1BLHvLFo4CALBHqJSz1khoRrPkT3UAF9Pj
LTC:LUkHYqHZeFV2xg8vtEGXEAib1sjnEed2LP

[1714875883]

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[1714875883]

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[1714875883]

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[1714875883]

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[1714875883]

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[Jozzaboy]

I like it.

Minimum, I make a nice profit. Maximum, I can buy a new car after taxes. 

[vssa]

Update : 6H price chart wave count-


Colors-
Blue -major wave count
Purple-secondary wave count
Orange-wave 5 of major wave 3 count
Green-price target.

3 White on the MACD 13/32/7 histogram indicates wave 3 major count(lowest low )
4 White on the MACD 13/32/7 histogram indicates wave 4 major count ,because the current MACD is lower then the previous one and fails to break the 113 price.

The price target for the move down is 80 USD/BTC:


If you find this analysis useful and you would like to see more posts of this type from me please donate to:
BTC:1BLHvLFo4CALBHqJSz1khoRrPkT3UAF9Pj
LTC:LUkHYqHZeFV2xg8vtEGXEAib1sjnEed2LP





 

[smoothie]

ok so which is it? First or second analysis?

Or are you just trying to cover all grounds?

I figured you would pick one given your previous good calls. Guess not.

[vssa]

ok so which is it? First or second analysis?

Or are you just trying to cover all grounds?

I figured you would pick one given your previous good calls. Guess not.

It is the second analysis, the updated   

[Abandon]

The A wave should be moved over to the left, and the B wave risen above A to where A use to be, with C moved to where B was (this kind of wave would be called an Irregular Flat). Where the end of B was is now the start of Wave 1. And some other things. Also, I wouldn't count on Elliott Waves at a time like this. There's too many possible interpretations. I don't see the handle part going down much more, or at all.

Also the volume looks natural, I don't see any manipulation in it. The main reason this crash started was the Liberty Reserve incident, which broke the significant support we had going. The market isn't artificially propped up like you seem to be thinking. If anything, it's oversold. You can check the Accumulation/Distribution, and compare it to the crash on 2011 to see the difference.

[e521]

So yesterday was going up to 125-160, today is going down to 80, what about tomorrow?

[vokain]

So yesterday was going up to 125-160, today is going down to 80, what about tomorrow?

...if the handle breaks up past his 113 line, then yeah it will go to 125-160...but what the handle means is that it will decline before making such a move up, as it has.

[Dalib]

So yesterday was going up to 125-160, today is going down to 80, what about tomorrow?

...if the handle breaks up past his 113 line, then yeah it will go to 125-160...but what the handle means is that it will decline before making such a move up, as it has.

Today it is the maximum 114.48, but the greatest resistance is at $ 115. If we reach more than 115 today or tomorrow we will see some quick 118-119 $.

[vokain]

Hard to decide know whetheor not this is just artificial demand from the mtgox USD wire withdrawal issue though

[Frozenlock]

It's true demand... from speculators expecting a massive withdrawal of BTCs from other people. 

[Its About Sharing]

I think you mentioned this in the wall thread. And I'm not saying we don't go up, but this is not a cup and handle.
Please note:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

Definition of 'Cup and Handle'
A pattern on bar charts resembling a cup with a handle. The cup is in the shape of a "U" and the handle has a slight downward drift. The right-hand side of the pattern has low trading volume. It can be as short as seven weeks and as long as 65 weeks.

As the stock comes up to test the old highs, the stock will incur selling pressure by the people who bought at or near the old high. This selling pressure will make the stock price trade sideways with a tendency towards a downtrend for four days to four weeks... then it takes off. Below is an example of a cup and handle chart pattern:



Investopedia explains 'Cup and Handle'
A couple points on trying to detect cup and handles: Length - Generally, cups with longer and more "U" shaped bottoms, the stronger the signal. Avoid cups with a sharp "V" bottoms. Depth - Ideally, the cup should not be too deep. Also, avoid handles which are too deep since the handles should form in the top half of the cup pattern. Volume - Volume should dry up on the decline and remain lower than average in the base of the bowl. It should then increase when the stock finally starts to make its move back up to test the old high. Retest (of old high) - doesn't have touch or come within a few ticks of old high. However, the further the top of the handle is away from the highs, the more significant the breakout needs to be.

[Abandon]

I agree with you that this is far fetched to call this a Cup and Handle formation, but there might be a similar end result. Another note, the Cup and Handle patterns can be shorter than seven weeks, but the longer term ones are usually more reliable.

[Its About Sharing]

I agree with you that this is far fetched to call this a Cup and Handle formation, but there might be a similar end result. Another note, the Cup and Handle patterns can be shorter than seven weeks, but the longer term ones are usually more reliable.

Yeah, I'm not saying we won't go up. But, the idea behind the Cup and Handle is based on the buildup of pressure (You can almost visualize it).
So, I would imagine that smaller Cup and Handles might work, but since they are not really mentioned, I think the effect would be
much much less pronounced.

It is sort of like a "half pipe" for stocks.