Insane Prediction for difficulty increases

[Mota]

Comparing BFL orders to KNC is like comparing VW to Ferrari.  BFL orders are pretty cheap, not everyone can order a 7000dollar unit, let alone 2 or more.

Also: Source? Where do you see that they will have that many orders? Not every order made translates to an order paid.

Just checked, my order number(apart from my preorder) was 1800ish. That was within the 890 paid orders. Now it's 2250ish. That's not 1800paid orders. They will get more orders once they deliver the first units, that is true, but I doubt they will order 100000 chips more without payment. So the next units will probably be more efficient and maybe even more powerful, but I don't think that they will be able to deliver them within weeks without chips.

AND even if they can, see post above. 400mil difficulty, still ROI in 220days. We are far from that. very far.
AND nobody cares for a quick ROI. If my unit can make me an ROI in 60 days, fine. If it takes 10 months, still fine.
I will make money off it as long as it is profitable, and that it will be a pretty long time after ROI.

AND if you check the Hashrate from the CPU to GPU switch, you will notice that it only rose about 30-45 times (depending on where you mark the swicth), and that was with way more affordable hardware. Most people bought their gpus one after the other.

[1714900428]

1714900428

[firefop]

 

Agree, anything parabolic is not sustainable, BTC price or Mining hashing power.
If you are right, then Asicminer is going to go bust unless they can kill off the competition somehow.

Correct - the problem with larger process and power hungry hardware is it's longevity. This is why BFL is still winning the race even though they've just started shipping.

Nothing in this thread is new information. We've always expected a spike in hash rate and difficulty upon asic release... followed by a low btc price because of miners cashing out to recoup investments.

The only real question is: after how many cycles will it end?

If you got a BFL single in the next 2 week - it would pay for itself in the first week. Even with new prices - and assuming BFL had stock on hand to ship - how many weeks before the difficulty gets so high that you don't think it's reasonable to buy more hardware. This is what we're dealing with.

But then - the weak hands are already buying inferior tech in a mad race to see who bankrupts themselves first. In some period of time (as the btc price crashes low and velocity slows way down) how many of them will turn of their miners - how many will sell them. (hint: you're seeing people trying to unload avalon hardware for insane markups already). How many will simply run the miners in the red... paying electricity out of pocket to accumulate bitcoin?

The only valid moves at this point are to buy as much 'most power friendly' asic gear as you can afford and mine with it until you've recouped all costs. That or just stop. The sooner the idiots figure this out the more stable the global hash-rate will become.

[ktttn]

This entire thread is terribly depressing 

No kidding.
I don't care about dollars. At all.
The more devices that mine bitcoins there are in the world, the better, regardless of how profitable they are in usd.
Also...
Kenya.
/unpopular opinion

[klintay]

OP 's predication for today was off well off.....

sorry there was a typo. that should not have been a prediction for today but for next month. Actually it is spot on. I said that difficulty would increase every ten days and that percentage increase would double every 40 days hence the difficulty x 1.2 to the power of 4 in the calculations. than means i am factoring in 10 day increases in difficulty. At the moment we are in the 20% every ten days. by 16/07 will will enter the 40% increase phase. Then 40 days from then we will enter the 80% increase.

[klintay]

i originally posted this on the 7th/06

difficulty was about 15,000,000. I said in ten days it would increase by 20%.

15,000,000 x 1.2 = 18,000,000

the next leg would be 27/06/2013, estimated difficulty = 21,600,000

[naRky]

Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

[PaperClip]

Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point

[naRky]

Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point

correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly

[Rampion]

Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point

correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly

Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.

Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious??  To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.

[naRky]

Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point

correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly

Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.

Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious??  To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.

sorry for that…my point is that my formula seems to be easier for me, i dont need mining calculator, remember the THs/difficulty point... but its only my opinion no flame please im complicated person

[Rampion]

Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point

correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly

Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.

Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious??  To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.

sorry for that…my point is that my formula seems to be easier for me, i dont need mining calculator, remember the THs/difficulty point... but its only my opinion no flame please im complicated person

The "mining calculator" is useful to a) include your costs (electricity, hardware) and b) factor the network hash rate increase (which equals to profitability decline in terms of constant BTC exchange rate), in order to project the results on a given timeframe.

You obviously do not need any online calculator to know how many BTC will generate X GH/s at X total network hashrate.

[Andijviesoep]

I made similar predictions, albeit a lot more conservative. The below graph shows relative profitability from day 0 up to 120 days, for variable daily difficulty % increases. I copied the explanation from my thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=237277).

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4104/pqor.png

The x-axis represents days, the y-axis represents daily difficulty increase in percentage, from 0.0% up to 2.0%. You can use the graph to visualize the decline from day to day in profitability for a given daily %difficulty increase. Start on a point on the top of the shape, above the green line (y-axis, x=0). Now travel parallel to the red line (increasing x, means increasing days). This will take you downwards into the 'valley'. Your profitability will decline, the speed of which depends on where you started above the green line (which daily %difficulty increase you chose). The only instance where your profitability does not decline is at the very edge of the figure, right above the red line, where y=0 (no difficulty increase). This of course will not happen. If you start from a point with small y (say y=0.1, means 0.1% daily difficulty increase) and travel along x, up to x=120 (120 days later), you will end up with P around 0.89, a relatively mild 11% decline in profit. However, if you do the same but start at the very edge of the graph, at y=2 (2% daily difficulty increase), you will end up in the corner nearest to the point of view, where P is only 0.095, a 90.5% decline in profit.

The OP's estimate is on average 5.8% per per day ((2.5+5+10)/3). I think this is extremely unrealistic considering the past daily growth hardly ever exceeded 2%. Despite this I also think ASICs really won't be as profitable as they might seem. Above all they are not really worth it considering the major unknowns in delivery time/durability and also Bitcoin's future, now that it has caught the attention of the main stream media, and more importantly mistrustful governments and shady unkown parties.