Bitcoin: The World’s Most Dramatic Bubble Ever?

[XECTA]

First it was tulips. More recently it was tech stocks and then the housing market. Lately, it’s all about bitcoin.

All four share a common denominator: They suffered through financial bubbles, or bubble-like conditions. The first three ended badly. The jury is still out on what’s in store for bitcoin.

[jamie_farrel]

Sometimes I feel like it is. However, any bubble can help you make a lot of money if you're smart. So, if you feel like spending some time trying to figure it out how things work, you might end up rich and happy, you know? 

[sangtuosimino]

The feeling is not too bubble in technology stocks, the Holland tulip is the first, for hundreds of years, people had to buy some is the dream of hundreds of years after their children can be free of wealth. Bitcoin may be a bit different, bitcoin may have a big bubble, but I think not so fast

[Crypdon]

This bubble is going to burst soon, we've all seen it before! I think it will happen in November now that the fork is cancelled and the move to alts will begin

[Periodik]

This bubble is going to burst soon, we've all seen it before! I think it will happen in November now that the fork is cancelled and the move to alts will begin

I am interested on what will happen next. But I am pretty confident Bitcoin will recover from this dip. I don't know how deep it is, maybe $5000. I am willing to take a bet that bitcoin reaches $10,000 before 2018 ends. We can use reliable escrows here to mediate.

[dothebeats]

Bah. Another "bitcoin is a bubble" post. Bitcoin's rise in price could be anything else, and to think that infrastructure and businesses are built on top of the tech makes me think that it's here to stay and not just other crazy bubble mania like we have had in history. If this is indeed a real bubble. the real question is when will it end and at what point? No one knows for certain, and if it's indeed a bubble, all we can do is cash out whenever we're in the green and enjoy.

[franky1]

Bah. Another "bitcoin is a bubble" post. Bitcoin's rise in price could be anything else, and to think that infrastructure and businesses are built on top of the tech makes me think that it's here to stay and not just other crazy bubble mania like we have had in history. If this is indeed a real bubble. the real question is when will it end and at what point? No one knows for certain, and if it's indeed a bubble, all we can do is cash out whenever we're in the green and enjoy.

it is a bubble. but what you got to realise is that the housing bubble also had technology and infrastructure, businesses built on top of it.
a bubble is not about vapourware that vanishes into zero value once people realise its valueless.. a bubble is about something real that expands above its natural level based on alot of hot air(speculation).

this means that there is a natural level of value.. and the speculation ontop is the empty expanse that can burst.

with all speculation on assets there will always be a expansion of the price based on pure idiotic speculation/value over pricing.
and when it bursts it doesnt go to zero it just drops to a natural more realistic value, these natural realistic values are found on the markets by 'resistant points', values at which people will refuse to sell at because they deem the asset holds more value. some people call it 'the new low' or 'the new bottom' and yes the housing market did not drop to zero where people could buy a house for 1cent, but it definitely had a bubble and that bubble did burst.

so atleast realise that bitcoin is in a bubble. and know the real issue is that without good real utility. the natural waterline at the bottom of the bubble can decrease. which is why people should care more about the infrastructure, business and utility of bitcoin because without any of that holding the water line up, then when bubbles burst it causes more devastation to the fiat lovers who see the price crash more

[Xervo]

Because bitcoin is an artificial product. He is in no way reinforced, he is controlled by 6-7 people. I think it will soon be moved more promising crypto-currencies.

[StrikerEureka]

Of course it is a bubble because it is super trendy now and everbody wants to catch the hypetrain to sell higher later. But the real value of bitcoin is made when there are no speculators anymore and only users then we will see what supply and demand do to the price. Could be higher than now, could be massively lower than now.. only future will tell

[jjacob]

You don't know that it is a bubble, until it bursts,
I think this statement applies to most people who are calling Bitcoin a bubble
Bubble = Rally I missed.

[zarados]

Bah. Another "bitcoin is a bubble" post. Bitcoin's rise in price could be anything else, and to think that infrastructure and businesses are built on top of the tech makes me think that it's here to stay and not just other crazy bubble mania like we have had in history. If this is indeed a real bubble. the real question is when will it end and at what point? No one knows for certain, and if it's indeed a bubble, all we can do is cash out whenever we're in the green and enjoy.

Agree, I usually seeing this moment like a discount time for bitcoin. And the percentage of its decrease was also a percentge of its discount. You'll never knew when it comes and you'll never knew when it is over. So far, holding bitcoin for long term still a wise strategy, but if you're an expert in trading, you should sell it when its on a peak, and wait for next bottom to buy back.

[Monro3000]

I hope you do not want to sow panic among users of this forum? If you're worried that this is another bubble, then do not mess with it. Even during soap bubbles there are winners and there are losers.

[krishnapramod]

There is an interesting article about crypto J-curve, boom and bust cycles. Going through the history, it is evident that Bitcoin already has been through a few boom-bust cycles and a few more will come. Bitcoin's valuation depends on current utility value (CUV) and discounted expected utility value (DEUV). Bitcoin is going through a phase where DEUV outweighs CUV. Rather than deriving value from its current utility, it is more speculative and when speculators bolt for the exist, DEUV drops, and lack of CUV results in a correction. But then as the CUV of Bitcoin increases, the DEUV expands once again, another bull run followed by a correction. The pattern would play out until there is an equilibrium between CUV and DEUV, both of them expanding in tandem.

The cycle will play out again… and again… and again. In macro-patterns and micro-patterns I expect many J-curves to play out, the difference is one of time scale. By macro-pattern I refer to a decadal time-scale. Each prior peak of DEUV will pale in comparison to the following peak in DEUV, creating an ever refreshing J-curve. That J-curve will be composed of many micro J-curves, the periodicity of which is still being determined.

Ultimately, at steady-state, a cryptoasset should be mostly composed of CUV, with a tad of speculation happening at the margin. At this point, the multi-decadal J-curve should start to taper, ultimately resembling an S-curve as the years of utility roll on. The amount of continued speculation around future utility will depend on how much of the target market has already been captured, and how much the protocol has ossified. Of course, this is all theory, so don’t expect perfect patterns in reality. But so long as utility waxes over the long-run, we’ll make it to the (full) moon.

https://medium.com/@cburniske/the-crypto-j-curve-be5fdddafa26

[shamzblueworld]

Well even if it is, it is an invention, and even when this bubble pops, there will be no undoing of that invention, the blockchain, the crypto currency, that is not a bubble. It will keep going forward, with or without bitcoin.

[Wendigo]

Bah. Another "bitcoin is a bubble" post. Bitcoin's rise in price could be anything else, and to think that infrastructure and businesses are built on top of the tech makes me think that it's here to stay and not just other crazy bubble mania like we have had in history. If this is indeed a real bubble. the real question is when will it end and at what point? No one knows for certain, and if it's indeed a bubble, all we can do is cash out whenever we're in the green and enjoy.

it is a bubble. but what you got to realise is that the housing bubble also had technology and infrastructure, businesses built on top of it.
a bubble is not about vapourware that vanishes into zero value once people realise its valueless.. a bubble is about something real that expands above its natural level based on alot of hot air(speculation).

this means that there is a natural level of value.. and the speculation ontop is the empty expanse that can burst.

with all speculation on assets there will always be a expansion of the price based on pure idiotic speculation/value over pricing.
and when it bursts it doesnt go to zero it just drops to a natural more realistic value, these natural realistic values are found on the markets by 'resistant points', values at which people will refuse to sell at because they deem the asset holds more value. some people call it 'the new low' or 'the new bottom' and yes the housing market did not drop to zero where people could buy a house for 1cent, but it definitely had a bubble and that bubble did burst.

so atleast realise that bitcoin is in a bubble. and know the real issue is that without good real utility. the natural waterline at the bottom of the bubble can decrease. which is why people should care more about the infrastructure, business and utility of bitcoin because without any of that holding the water line up, then when bubbles burst it causes more devastation to the fiat lovers who see the price crash more

I too think it's a big ass bubble that is going to pop soon. What do you think the real value of 1 Bitcoin is though? I would say $1000 or slightly more of whatever it costs to mine 1 coin in electricity bills. I don't mine so I am not up to speed on that one. And in my opinion Bitcoin has zero utility as of now. The real utility is in the Blockchain technology and it has a price tag of $0 because it's essentially free. Bitcoin can come and go at any time but the Blockchain tech is here to stay.

[gabmen]

First it was tulips. More recently it was tech stocks and then the housing market. Lately, it’s all about bitcoin.

All four share a common denominator: They suffered through financial bubbles, or bubble-like conditions. The first three ended badly. The jury is still out on what’s in store for bitcoin.

I don't wanna look at it as negatively as that since i've invested quite a lot but if you think about it, its possible. I think people like me should just be extra cautious and always have a fall back plan because this bubble popping isn't impossible

[hasmukh_rawal]

At first I thought it is not a bubble and I used to scold people whoever said it was. But now I have realised that it actually is a bubble. 
As the price increases more and more people are attracted towards it which creates more demand and hence the price increases more.
The BTC bubble is said to reach $10,000,000 and that is when it will burst and rip apart everybody. Still it's just a theory and nobody actually know what's gonna happen.

[SixOfFive]

Prior to BTC, all three are centralized and just a trend.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a technological revolution in the payment mode. Although rising price of BTC is just a demand and supply effect, still I believe that BTC got a lot of potential to grow as new users are jumping in this market everyday.

[kimochidesh]

Tulips, tech stocks and housing market have one thing in common that is they all are centralized and controlled by a person or co. whereas BTC is people's currency. Everybody has an equal control on it, that made people trust on it. So I don't think BTC is a bubble.
I can see only 1 reason for its downfall....that is a Govt. negative stand on it. Otherwise nobody can stop BTC to become most valuable and HODL currency ever.

[Lyancy001]

Oh yeah? A bubble? Okay, just don't blame yourself for not getting with us. But if it is truly a bubble, then congratulations. Bitcoin is somehow unique at this point of era, we may have a new set of currency now.