Very quick BOTE calculation with regards to this:
Approx 25 chainforks (of depth 1) per 3000 blocks.
http://blockchain.info/orphaned-blocksSo approx a 1/120 chance (or less) to have a chainfork when a block is produced.
For two chianforks you need at least this chance twice. In reality it's less probable because simply squaring the chance would include a one of two second chainforks that would spring from one block, instead of one from each.
Rough estimate of a two length chainfork < (1/120)^2 = 0.0000694...
We've had ~240000 blocks, so we'd expect about 16 chainforks of length 2 thus far.
If we look at chainforks of length 3, we see the expected amount is less than 0.14, which would line up with reality (excluding March this year)
Bytemaster, if you want I've got a python script I wrote a few days ago to simulate network propagation of blocks.