"Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' "

[crumbs]

No, I am stating that using the price of milk as evidence of runaway inflation is asinine, because it ignores all of the other factors that drive the price.

Then our Bureau of Labor Statistics is asinine. Tell it to the BLS.
The CPI has been adjusted all sorts of ways to reduce the visibility of inflation.  It is losing trust as a metric, so this suggestion of how to fix it should be well received by them.  Go for it.

I think you're on the right track.  Price of milk should be adopted as the new metric of national economy.  All them ivory tower chalkboard economists with their GDP this, standard of living that and their fancy learningz!  Got Milk?

Milk wasn't my choice.  Am just sharing what is out there.  
Thanks for contributing, since you brought up the new metric, how do you like to measure "national economy"?  
More data, please.

Milk seemed to be your choice, you effectively used it to illustrate the dollar's "multi-generational downtrend" just about here:

Over the last 10 years, our US Dollar, AKA Federal Reserve Note, buys about 45% less milk.
Using gold (lets be generous and use the highest price from 2003, US$363.58 and the lowest price from 2013, US$1,180 to make it look as bad as possible) if we were using gold to buy our milk instead of the FRN, we would get about 300% more milk.
If we used bitcoin, we'd own the farm instead.
So milk has been getting cheaper, just not cheap enough to keep up with the rate that dollars have been getting cheaper.

So dollars go bad faster than milk. 
Over this time period we did well if we sold dollars for milk, gold and BTC as fast as you get them.
Our SEC agent's wisdom must be based on the buy-low sell-high philosophy, the question is, will US$ ever be high?  Its on a multi-generational downtrend, we may just be looking for the greater fool.

I even liked your funny about "our SEC agent's wisdom." 
America's dairy farmers will shed a collective tear as they discover that milk's no longer Libertarian's economic indicator of choice, but i'm fine with falling back to the metrics already in place. 
Oh, and this:

Still trying to decide which of my sides haz redeeming merit so that i could cling to it

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[NewLiberty]

Milk seemed to be your choice, you effectively used it to illustrate the dollar's "multi-generational downtrend" just about here:

I was third on the Milk issue, by adding the national data, if you missed where that started..
The multi-generational dollar downtrend is a reference to other's previous posts (covering time since Fed 1913+), not the single decade of milk data.


The broader SEC Agent point of BTC being no replacement for any fiat currency is currently very valid.
BTC "whales" are investors with a few million's invested.
We haven't seen real whales yet, much less the leviathans lurking in the deep, so the volatility is going to keep wrecking the BTC market, until it doesn't.

[NewLiberty]

It's awfully convenient that you completely ignore the first paragraph of the post. You know, the part of the post that explains how his entire methodology is flawed?

I cant imagine why you would do that...

It was not ignored.  I agree that there is very likely a flaw, or more than one.  
I am however hoping for some substantiation of what you mean by "entire methodology is flawed", or a mention of the flaw to which you refer.
A single flaw may not completely destroy credibility.  As careful as we may be, we each have flaws.  You and I included.
If by methodology, you simply mean that it is wrong to analyze national data to determine how the method of calculating it changes over time, we'll disagree.

The CPI data is used to compute entitlements, and Inflation adjusted bonds.
So in budget balancing, it can be useful to skew it downward to slow growth of entitlements.  
Understanding the extent of the skewing seems a useful endeavor, so the methodology has at least some merit.
The reasons for skewing it when it is done, tend to list other reasons than entitlement cuts, but the effect is the same.  Clinton (quality adjustment) and Obama (chained CPI) administrations both cut entitlements in this way.

As an SEC agent, you know that the market reacts differently to "earnings" that appear due to an accounting change than it does to earnings that appear due to increased sales.

[crumbs]

Milk seemed to be your choice, you effectively used it to illustrate the dollar's "multi-generational downtrend" just about here:

I was third on the Milk issue, by adding the national data, if you missed where that started..
The multi-generational dollar downtrend is a reference to other's previous posts (covering time since Fed 1913+), not the single decade of milk data.


The broader SEC Agent point of BTC being no replacement for any fiat currency is currently very valid.
BTC "whales" are investors with a few million's invested.
We haven't seen real whales yet, much less the leviathans lurking in the deep, so the volatility is going to keep wrecking the BTC market, until it doesn't.

Today's status quo was *shaped* by all of such details.  The probability vectors [*giggle*] that ignored such things were quickly & unceremoniously pruned by reality.  I'm not sure if it's as obvious to everyone as it is to me.

[SEC agent]

It was not ignored.  I agree that there is very likely a flaw, or more than one.  
I am however hoping for some substantiation of what you mean by "entire methodology is flawed", or a mention of the flaw to which you refer.

He posts "alternate charts" for inflation (which are just the CPI with an arbitrary constant added....which is why his charts have the same exact curve but at a higher percentage level) which he says is necessary because CPI doesn't account for food and energy (which we know is bullshit).  

Here are is adjusted chart for reference:



When he misses such a basic fact about how CPI is calculated, and then proceeds to produce new "correct" charts and a website to spout bullshit on how the US Gov misrepresents statistical data, how could you possibly trust his word on anything else related to inflation? Or anything having to do with statistics overall for that matter?

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his credibility; I think at this point, you are just arguing for the sake of arguing (or at least I hope so).  

[Spendulus]

It was not ignored.  I agree that there is very likely a flaw, or more than one.  
I am however hoping for some substantiation of what you mean by "entire methodology is flawed", or a mention of the flaw to which you refer.

He posts "alternate charts" for inflation (which are just the CPI with an arbitrary constant added....which is why his charts have the same exact curve but at a higher percentage level) which he says is necessary because CPI doesn't account for food and energy (which we know is bullshit).  

Here are is adjusted chart for reference:



When he misses such a basic fact about how CPI is calculated, and then proceeds to produce new "correct" charts and a website to spout bullshit on how the US Gov misrepresents statistical data, how could you possibly trust his word on anything else related to inflation? Or anything having to do with statistics overall for that matter?

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his credibility; I think at this point, you are just arguing for the sake of arguing (or at least I hope so).  

It is simple.  He fully explains the methodology used behind the calculations in his charts.  These methods are clearly explained on his website.

It is factual, then that you misrepresent his methods.

We can proceed to the following conclusion, which fortunately, you have provided us.

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his YOUR credibility

[NewLiberty]

It was not ignored.  I agree that there is very likely a flaw, or more than one.  
I am however hoping for some substantiation of what you mean by "entire methodology is flawed", or a mention of the flaw to which you refer.

He posts "alternate charts" for inflation (which are just the CPI with an arbitrary constant added....which is why his charts have the same exact curve but at a higher percentage level) which he says is necessary because CPI doesn't account for food and energy (which we know is bullshit).  

Here are is adjusted chart for reference:



When he misses such a basic fact about how CPI is calculated, and then proceeds to produce new "correct" charts and a website to spout bullshit on how the US Gov misrepresents statistical data, how could you possibly trust his word on anything else related to inflation? Or anything having to do with statistics overall for that matter?

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his credibility; I think at this point, you are just arguing for the sake of arguing (or at least I hope so).  

It is simple.  He fully explains the methodology used behind the calculations in his charts.  These methods are clearly explained on his website.

It is factual, then that you misrepresent his methods.

We can proceed to the following conclusion, which fortunately, you have provided us.

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his YOUR credibility

It is less arbitrary than it seems.  What he does is subtract the "adjustments" that have been made to the CPI over the decades which were added to show a lower inflation number.
The adjustments were added in order to cut USA entitlement spending, which is indexed to CPI.

Sure, the original adjustments, and also subtracting them, could be called arbitrary.  They are what they are.  The information is useful in both forms.  

Fundamentally, neither of these metrics are perfect indicators of inflation, the shadowstats numbers are just showing what the CPI would show without the budget-saving adjustments.  Democratic presidents can more easily cut entitlements because they get buy-in from their opposition and those loyal to them more or less follow along, so Clinton and Obama have an easier time cutting the CPI.
The Bush folks had an easier time increasing spending.  This principle shows the political perversity of party politics.  It is easier to go against one's political base to get things done.

"Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former U.S. Senator Alan K. Simpson suggested a transition to using a "chained CPI" in 2010, when they headed the White House’s deficit-reduction commission. They stated that it was a more accurate measure of inflation than the current system and switching from the current system could save the government more than $290 billion over the decade following their report. "The chained CPI is usually 0.25 to 0.30 percentage points lower each year, on average, than the standard CPI measurements."
Whether the reason it was adopted was more because it was "more accurate" or that using this accounting trick improves the government picture "more than $290 billion over the decade following their report" can be left to your own imagination.  

US$290 Billion pays for a lot of SEC agents.  If one of the companies SEC agents regulate tried such an accounting trick, would the result be as easily accepted?

[Spendulus]

...It is less arbitrary than it seems.  What he does is subtract the "adjustments" that have been made to the CPI over the decades which were added to show a lower inflation number.
The adjustments were added in order to cut USA entitlement spending, which is indexed to CPI.

Sure, the original adjustments, and also subtracting them, could be called arbitrary.  They are what they are.  The information is useful in both forms. 

Fundamentally, neither of these metrics are perfect indicators of inflation, the shadowstats numbers are just showing what the CPI would show without the budget-saving adjustments.....

....
US$290 Billion pays for a lot of SEC agents.  If one of the companies SEC agents regulate tried such an accounting trick, would the result be as easily accepted?

May we politely request then, that our resident SEC Agent be replaced with one that was a better liar?

[Spendulus]

....content of what they say is what drives their credibility.  

Take Ick, for example; he claims that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens. Do I need to explain why this isn't credible, or why anyone with an ounce of sanity would ignore what he has to say?

You know, since we're all just having fun here and you've told your fair share of untruths, not even trying to place them in a proper form such as reframing of an argument, yes, let's start with the claim that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens.

Evidence that that may be so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDKdHuyQpHY

I rest my case.

[NewLiberty]

....content of what they say is what drives their credibility.  

Take Ick, for example; he claims that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens. Do I need to explain why this isn't credible, or why anyone with an ounce of sanity would ignore what he has to say?

You know, since we're all just having fun here and you've told your fair share of untruths, not even trying to place them in a proper form such as reframing of an argument, yes, let's start with the claim that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens.

Evidence that that may be so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDKdHuyQpHY

I rest my case.

I think SEC Agent has left us?

[Spendulus]

....content of what they say is what drives their credibility.  

Take Ick, for example; he claims that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens. Do I need to explain why this isn't credible, or why anyone with an ounce of sanity would ignore what he has to say?

You know, since we're all just having fun here and you've told your fair share of untruths, not even trying to place them in a proper form such as reframing of an argument, yes, let's start with the claim that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens.

Evidence that that may be so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDKdHuyQpHY

I rest my case.

I think SEC Agent has left us?

what?

so, then ... the world IS RULED BY....

[solex]

Don't know about multi-year rally, but the USD has just been spanked black and blue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/currencies-go-berserk-bernanke-kills-king-dollar

Interesting that BTC spikes sharply up too. Perhaps it is indeed becoming more integrated with the world's financial markets as time goes on.

[sidhujag]

Don't know about multi-year rally, but the USD has just been spanked black and blue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/currencies-go-berserk-bernanke-kills-king-dollar

Interesting that BTC spikes sharply up too. Perhaps it is indeed becoming more integrated with the world's financial markets as time goes on.

Yea bb being called on the bluff but he doesnt lie hes not a greenspan. Usd is a buy.