Should BFL Stop Taking New Orders?

[Phoenix3333]

It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?

[jeroenn13]

Where are your sources of this news?

[Phoenix3333]

Where are your sources of this news?

Just the math involved.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226107.0

[cescan]

It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?

yes, due to Difficulty hardware mining!

[Xyver]

Yes, but most of the math continues to predict that we will continue with an exponential rise in difficulty, which will only happen if stupid amounts of miners keep entering the network, which will only happen if BFL and the other companies continue to take orders.

No more orders, no new miners, no higher hash rates, no higher difficulty.

[mustyoshi]

Even at 400M difficulty and .15 $ per kwh you'd only have to theoretically produce 29GH/w (more if you use a pool) to cover electricity costs, the Jalapano gets around 133GH/w so the 50GH unit probably has 120-130 GH/w efficiency due to more chips and stuff.

So there is no reason for them to stop taking orders as their units will be useful for a while.

[lazydna]

Even at 400M difficulty and .15 $ per kwh you'd only have to theoretically produce 29GH/w (more if you use a pool) to cover electricity costs, the Jalapano gets around 133GH/w so the 50GH unit probably has 120-130 GH/w efficiency due to more chips and stuff.

So there is no reason for them to stop taking orders as their units will be useful for a while.

like the GPU age. asics will have to start budgeting for electricity costs and up front investment costs.
we're going through a transition phase until total hashrate *must* plateau eventually.

[k9quaint]

Even at 400M difficulty and .15 $ per kwh you'd only have to theoretically produce 29GH/w (more if you use a pool) to cover electricity costs, the Jalapano gets around 133GH/w so the 50GH unit probably has 120-130 GH/w efficiency due to more chips and stuff.

So there is no reason for them to stop taking orders as their units will be useful for a while.

At 400M difficulty, a Jalapeno would not recoup it's capital costs even if difficulty was flat for 6 years. You have to hope the exchange rate rises while you mine, but if that happens you are better off buying BTC than buying a Jalapeno.

[GigaWave]

Even at 400M difficulty and .15 $ per kwh you'd only have to theoretically produce 29GH/w (more if you use a pool) to cover electricity costs, the Jalapano gets around 133GH/w so the 50GH unit probably has 120-130 GH/w efficiency due to more chips and stuff.

So there is no reason for them to stop taking orders as their units will be useful for a while.

like the GPU age. asics will have to start budgeting for electricity costs and up front investment costs.
we're going through a transition phase until total hashrate *must* plateau eventually.

One big difference, which the OP is trying to point out. GPUs weren't on back order for a year and people weren't running the calculations wrong, IE using the current difficulty as their ROI gauge/calculator. I'm hoping ASIC haven't been over bought, but with the number of new start ups and a YEAR worth of undelivered devices, we are looking at a huge unknown. It doesn't look pretty.