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Author Topic: What Litecoin means for Bitcoin (and crypto in general) once it's on Mt.Gox  (Read 8530 times)
acoindr
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June 22, 2013, 08:58:26 PM
Last edit: June 22, 2013, 09:14:31 PM by acoindr
 #41

Almost everything claimed about litecoin is hype:

By whom? By me?

Please point to one thing I've ever said about Litecoin that is hype and not factual. I've said that Litecoin has 4x faster block times than Bitcoin, and this can be preferable to many users in many cases. I don't think that's false. I've also said Litecoin using a different algorithm can be beneficial if Bitcoin's breaks or vice versa. I also believe that is true, because once you have a large economy in motion it's very damaging for all transactions to suddenly need to halt. If there is only Bitcoin and nothing else then if Bitcoin ever fails for any reason, whether technical, or corruption, or whatever else, then it means severe global economic damage to all that use cryptocurrency (since there is only Bitcoin).

Scrypt is not GPU proof, as we've seen. It's not FPGA or ASIC proof either.

Again, when have I ever said Scrypt is GPU proof? For that matter please link directly to where anyone said that. They may have, but I'm not going to believe that simply because you said it.

What I think is more likely is you have a misunderstanding of why Scrypt was chosen for Litecoin.

Scrypt is designed to raise the resource demands of the algorithm making the size and the cost of a hardware implementation much more expensive, and therefore limiting the amount of parallelism an attacker can use. Specifically, the algorithm is designed to use a large amount of memory. There is a significant trade off in speed in order to get rid of the large memory requirements. I'm paraphrasing here from wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrypt

Such a trade off often exists in computer algorithms: you can increase speed at the cost of using more memory, or decrease memory requirements at the cost of performing more operations and taking longer. The idea behind scrypt is to deliberately make this trade off costly in either direction.

Ultimately this means mining litecoins is done with a different efficiency for GPUs, FPGAs and ASICS than mining bitcoins. This doesn't mean these systems can't mine litecoins effectively. It only says they do so with a different efficiency, which is the point.

2.5 minute block times have very little effect in real use-cases.

That is your statement. Is it a fact? I don't think so. In fact, I know it's not, because I personally have experienced the beneficial effect of having LTC confirmed quicker as compared to BTC when I transacted LTC. Are you saying I wasn't a real use case?


It's only useful for depositing BTC at an e-wallet, by reducing the time it takes for the deposit to be considered confirmed.

Have you ever heard the expression time is money? Do you know where that comes from? It's because at any given time having access to money at one point can have a different value than having access to the same amount at some other point. For example BTC exchange rates fluctuate. Some cryptocurrency users trade coins daily trying to make a profit. If their coins can't be confirmed at some location before they have access to trade them when and where they want to it can cost them real money.

Shorter block times do NOT make Bitcoin-alts more secure.

Who said they did? Again, link to the problematic claims you cite.

They reduce the time it takes for transactions to reach the maximum level of network security, but reduce that maximum level by wasting more honest work on latency.

What do you mean "reduce the maximum level"? Are you suggesting there is some cap for the total computing resources Litecoin can use?

It's a trade-off between securing transactions more quickly and making a blockchain more secure from >50% attacks.

No it's not. A block chain, any block chain, is only as secure from 51% attacks as the amount of resources it takes on average to outperform the honest network. That's true of Bitcoin and all proof of work only block chains. All of Litecoins 2.5 minute blocks now are far more secure than  Bitcoin's blocks when it was only Satoshi and a few others (like Hal Finney) mining Bitcoin. Also note that combined proof of work and proof of stake coins like Novacoin (which I also support) add another dimension to the 51% attack issue.

I personally think a shorter block time is in fact a slight protocol improvement, ...

Well which is it? Above you said 2.5 minute block times have very little effect in real use-cases.

... but I don't think an alternative network with this feature makes up for the advantage Bitcoin has in the size of its network of users/nodes, its hashrate and the amount of supporting services/software it has,...

I'm not sure if you're aware that amount of users/nodes, hashrate, and amount of supporting services/software for any block chain including Bitcoin can change. Again, when it was only Satoshi and Hal Finney mining Bitcoin in 2009 how much of the above support did it have?

... and claims suggesting otherwise are pure hype by miners looking to make money on their low-demand coins.

Here again you're saying a lot about claims made but linking to nothing. I'll be more inclined to think you have a legitimate gripe about hype if you can link to something.

I also don't think it makes sense to start a new blockchain that resets everyone's currency holdings to zero every time a minor protocol improvement comes along. It's better to upgrade the Bitcoin protocol over time in my opinion.

I don't believe a reset of everyone's wealth to zero for protocol changes is wise or welcome either. I believe in upgrading Bitcoin's protocol when possible too.

I strongly disagree. Litecoin is near copy of Bitcoin, and is less useful than it in almost every use-case.

Is that a fact or your opinion? I mean the part about being less useful in almost every use case? I believe it's only your opinion.

You're defining the market as anything you and litecoin miners want.

No I'm not. I understand a market has differences of opinion. That's why I'm spending significant time in this written exchange with you. It's also the reason there are buy versus sell actions on exchanges.

Since I, and others who don't want Bitcoin-based networks to fragment, are also part of the market, you can't accurately say that the market 'wishes' for MtGox to add litecoin and other Bitcoin-alts.

It's true I can't say that for the entire market, but I didn't. Like I said above people within a market can (and will) have differences of opinion. However, market pressure will usually result in some action or another. I'm saying market pressure can be the reason Litecoin will be more of a success than it is already.

You're dwelling on a technicality that is completely irrelevant to my point, which is that Bitcoin users and investors are hurt by the adoption of nearly identical networks that add new coins that can be used in similar roles as bitcoins.

Not if those investors also hold the other coins.

A bitcoin is an arbitrary unit.

No it's not. If you think it is then sell me a bitcoin for $1.00.

In any case, what's important is that the adoption of near copies of Bitcoin leads to a rapid rate of inflation in the Bitcoin-based cryptocurrency money supply. I think that's bad.

Creation of alt-coins doesn't automatically mean adoption of them. Have you any idea how many alt-coins there are now?  More than you can count on two hands.

I think either Bitcoin will remain the dominant cryptocurrency, or we will see increasing fragmentation and inflation of BTC-based cryptocurrency.

I had similar thinking at first. I didn't always support Litecoin. When it was announced I probably felt a bit like you do now towards it, as an unnecessary entrant to the scene. I later came to believe an ecosystem with only Bitcoin is the real danger. There is too much that can go wrong. Everything would have to go perfectly, and history has shown that usually isn't the case when it comes to Bitcoin.

I don't think it's likely that Bitcoin will only have one competing parallel network, and no more after that. In other words, it's either a universal money protocol known as BTC or it's a steadily increasing number of incompatible protocols.

Again, there is already far more than Bitcoin on the scene. What you don't seem to appreciate is that the majority of them don't have traction. Can't you see things appear to be progressing more closely to what I predict than you do?

I disagree with your assessment of this being the best way to plan against the corruption of Bitcoin. I explained my opinion on what is a much better way to create a Bitcoin-alt:

fork the blockchain with all of the transaction data that exists up to some point in time, so the new blockchain doesn't dilute the currency holdings of all Bitcoin users.

How in the world do you decide which point in time is the right one to invalidate transactions? You're saying a much better way to create a Bitcoin alternative is an intentionally disastrous hard economic fork?

This way, if you had 50 BTC in the original network, you would have 50 BTC in the new network too.

Not if you received those 50 BTC for a payment after the fork cut off for valid transactions.

Perhaps the market agrees with them and it will overrule you.

That can happen too. In fact I said the market was bigger than myself and my detractors too in the thread where I first proposed supporting Litecoin as a solution to the Bitcoin foundation.

I disagree. I think almost all of the code and concepts used in BTC-based cryptocurrency are 'Bitcoin technology', since it came from Bitcoin, and the many developers who contributed to the BTC network (and were renumerated in BTC for their work).

I didn't say the code wasn't 'Bitcoin technology'. I said all code doesn't belong only to something called Bitcoin. If you think it does you need to become familiar with what open source means.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_source
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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June 22, 2013, 10:15:58 PM
Last edit: June 22, 2013, 10:31:31 PM by amincd
 #42

By whom? By me?

By many of those who promote it, not you.

Quote
I've said that Litecoin has 4x faster block times than Bitcoin, and this can be preferable to many users in many cases. I don't think that's false.

I think it's not true that this is preferable in 'many cases'. In the vast majority of cases, either propagation confirmation is adequate (point of sale), or waiting 30-60 minutes for multiple block confirmations is not a hindrance because shipping takes longer than that anyway.

Quote
I've also said Litecoin using a different algorithm can be beneficial if Bitcoin's breaks or vice versa. I also believe that is true,

I think this is hype, for the reason that Bitcoin switching to a new hashing algorithm wouldn't take any longer - and I think would be much faster - than diverting all transaction activity to a new blockchain.

Quote
Scrypt is designed to raise the resource demands of the algorithm making the size and the cost of a hardware implementation much more expensive, and therefore limiting the amount of parallelism an attacker can use.

The resource demands of mining will always trend towards the revenues of mining. Therefore, the only factor that determines the resource demands of mining is the value of coins generated by mining. The proof of work algorithm is completely irrelevant.

In other words, your claim is unfounded hype, and misunderstands the economics of mining.

Quote
Ultimately this means mining litecoins is done with a different efficiency for GPUs, FPGAs and ASICS than mining bitcoins.

The claims that I saw repeatedly made by scrypt supporters is that it makes a Bitcoin-alt GPU-proof. Those claims stopped being made when GPU mining became more efficient than CPU mining for scrypt-based Bitcoin-alts. After that, the most common claim was that scrypt was FPGA/ASIC-proof, meaning that there wouldn't be large enough gains in mining with FPGAs/ASIC to ever make GPU mining uncompetitive.

I think even litecoin miners are starting to acknowledge that this is not true, as discussions on how to design and develop scrypt FPGAs/ASICs are becoming more common.

Quote
2.5 minute block times have very little effect in real use-cases.

That is your statement. Is it a fact? I don't think so. In fact, I know it's not, because I personally have experienced the beneficial effect of having LTC confirmed quicker as compared to BTC when I transacted LTC. Are you saying I wasn't a real use case?

What I mean is that it's more useful in a very small percentage of use-cases. Claims suggesting otherwise are hype designed to pump the currency in my opinion, and are motivated by the fact is that litecoin has very little to differentiate it from Bitcoin (having 99.99% of its code based on Bitcoin's) so its promoters need to play up its differences.

Quote
It's because at any given time having access to money at one point can have a different value than having access to the same amount at some other point. For example BTC exchange rates fluctuate. Some cryptocurrency users trade coins daily trying to make a profit.

I agree that this is an advantage. I already said as much. My argument is that it makes up a very small minority of use-cases of BTC-based cryptocurrency.

Quote
They reduce the time it takes for transactions to reach the maximum level of network security, but reduce that maximum level by wasting more honest work on latency.

What do you mean "reduce the maximum level"? Are you suggesting there is some cap for the total computing resources Litecoin can use?

By wasting more honest work due to more latency, shorter block times reduce the hashrate needed to successfully execute a >50% attack.

Quote
It's a trade-off between securing transactions more quickly and making a blockchain more secure from >50% attacks.

No it's not. A block chain, any block chain, is only as secure from 51% attacks as the amount of resources it takes on average to outperform the honest network.

Yes it is. Take some time to understand what I'm arguing instead of rushing to disagree with me.

Latency only affects honest miners. Someone attempting a >50% attack does not need to worry about latency, since they are building on their own blocks. With shorter block times, the ratio of propagation time to mining time increases, and the honest miners lose more of their work to orphan blocks, which increases the advantage of the attacker.

It's for this reason that a blockchain with 10 second block times would be very easy to >50% attack. The rest of the network would lose a huge amount of work to orphan blocks, while an attacker could secretly build its alternate chain with no work lost to orphans, and then release it on the network.

Quote
I personally think a shorter block time is in fact a slight protocol improvement, ...

Well which is it? Above you said 2.5 minute block times have very little effect in real use-cases.

What do you mean "which is it"? I just stated "very little effect", which doesn't contradict "slight protocol improvement". If it has a very slight positive effect, then it would be a slight protocol improvement.

Responding to your misinterpretations of my comments is getting tiresome.

Quote
... but I don't think an alternative network with this feature makes up for the advantage Bitcoin has in the size of its network of users/nodes, its hashrate and the amount of supporting services/software it has,...

I'm not sure if you're aware that amount of users/nodes, hashrate, and amount of supporting services/software for any block chain including Bitcoin can change.

That's irrelevant to my point which is that right now, using Bitcoin is much more convenient for almost any use than using any Bitcoin-alt, because it has a larger supporting economy, which more than makes up for any slight disadvantage that it has due to a longer block time.

Quote
... and claims suggesting otherwise are pure hype by miners looking to make money on their low-demand coins.

Here again you're saying a lot about claims made but linking to nothing. I'll be more inclined to think you have a legitimate gripe about hype if you can link to something.

You're denying that this hype (e.g. scrypt being ASIC proof) has been regularly promoted by Bitcoin-alt hypers? Do I really need to spend time digging up instances of it and quoting them for you? In any case, I'm not going to spend that much time to convince you. You can choose to believe me or not.

Quote
I also don't think it makes sense to start a new blockchain that resets everyone's currency holdings to zero every time a minor protocol improvement comes along. It's better to upgrade the Bitcoin protocol over time in my opinion.

I don't believe a reset of everyone's wealth to zero for protocol changes is wise or welcome either. I believe in upgrading Bitcoin's protocol when possible too.

Everyone's currency holdings in the new blockchain are reset to zero. To the extent that the new blockchain replaces the Bitcoin blockchain in certain niches, it reduces the value of the coins held by Bitcoin users.

I strongly disagree. Litecoin is near copy of Bitcoin, and is less useful than it in almost every use-case.

Is that a fact or your opinion? I mean the part about being less useful in almost every use case? I believe it's only your opinion.[/quote]

There's no way to prove something like this is a fact, so it's only my opinion.

Quote
You're defining the market as anything you and litecoin miners want.

No I'm not. I understand a market has differences of opinion. That's why I'm spending significant time in this written exchange with you.

Then please stop claiming that "this is what the market wants" and otherwise implying that being against Bitcoin-alts is opposing the market.

Quote
Since I, and others who don't want Bitcoin-based networks to fragment, are also part of the market, you can't accurately say that the market 'wishes' for MtGox to add litecoin and other Bitcoin-alts.

It's true I can't say that for the entire market, but I didn't.

You said "the market", which out any qualifiers, which implies "the entire market". You didn't say "much of the market" or "some of the market", just "the market".

Quote
I'm saying market pressure can be the reason Litecoin will be more of a success than it is already.

I understand. My view is that market pressure can lead to litecoin not becoming successful, and can lead to MtGox not supporting it.

Quote
You're dwelling on a technicality that is completely irrelevant to my point, which is that Bitcoin users and investors are hurt by the adoption of nearly identical networks that add new coins that can be used in similar roles as bitcoins.

Not if those investors also hold the other coins.

The other coins will continue to increase in number, so it's not an appealing investment. Inflation is a zero sum game. The only group that benefits is miners. With steadily increasing inflation, for the sake of miners, eventually investors could lose interest in all BTC-based cryptocurrencies. Much of the allure of Bitcoin is the prospect of 21 million bitcoins being used for a significant percentage of world commerce, but that goes away when there is nothing stopping Bitcoin 2, Bitcoin 3, ad infinitum, from being produced and taking market share from Bitcoin 1.

There's no denying that from an investor's point of view, an increasing number of blockchains gaining adoption reduces the allure of investing in coins.

Quote
A bitcoin is an arbitrary unit.

No it's not. If you think it is then sell me a bitcoin for $1.00.

Please stop misreading my comments. I know you can understand the point I'm trying to convey. What I'm trying to say is that the choice of a bitcoin as the standard unit of account in the Bitcoin economy is an arbitrary choice: it could be millicoins or Satoshis instead.

So when you claim that bitcoins are very 'scarce', because there are 21 million, you're assuming something that is completely arbitrary (the choice of bitcoin as the standard unit of account) is a fundamental physical quality of Bitcoin, as opposed to an accounting convention.

Fundamentally, the amount of bitcoin is not 'extremely scarce', because bitcoins can be divided to 8 decimal places.

Quote
In any case, what's important is that the adoption of near copies of Bitcoin leads to a rapid rate of inflation in the Bitcoin-based cryptocurrency money supply. I think that's bad.

Creation of alt-coins doesn't automatically mean adoption of them. Have you any idea how many alt-coins there are now?  More than you can count on two hands.

I didn't say 'creation'. I said 'adoption'. I'm trying to discourage adoption of near copycats of Bitcoin.

I think either Bitcoin will remain the dominant cryptocurrency, or we will see increasing fragmentation and inflation of BTC-based cryptocurrency.

I had similar thinking at first. I didn't always support Litecoin. When it was announced I probably felt a bit like you do now towards it, as an unnecessary entrant to the scene. I later came to believe an ecosystem with only Bitcoin is the real danger. There is too much that can go wrong. Everything would have to go perfectly, and history has shown that usually isn't the case when it comes to Bitcoin.[/quote]

Even if there are no major competitors to Bitcoin, there will always be many smaller ones, and those can provide all of the backup we need.

Bitcoin itself can also always be forked if it runs into major problems. I just don't see the need to risk serious fragmentation and loss of investor confidence in BTC to create a major, nearly identical, parallel network as a backup.

If it was extremely distinct from BTC that would be one thing, but all of the Bitcoin-alts will very likely have any weakness that BTC has, since their code is almost exclusively derived from BTC. Therefore, I see the benefit, in terms of providing a backup, as minimal, and not even close to making up for the risk it poses to investor confidence.

Quote
I don't think it's likely that Bitcoin will only have one competing parallel network, and no more after that. In other words, it's either a universal money protocol known as BTC or it's a steadily increasing number of incompatible protocols.

Again, there is already far more than Bitcoin on the scene. What you don't seem to appreciate is that the majority of them don't have traction. Can't you see things appear to be progressing more closely to what I predict than you do?

We can agree to disagree.

I think they will probably continue to not have traction, but I also believe though that if one of them does gain traction, then the likelihood of more following increases significantly. I see it as a serious risk, and worth trying to avoid.

I disagree with your assessment of this being the best way to plan against the corruption of Bitcoin. I explained my opinion on what is a much better way to create a Bitcoin-alt:

fork the blockchain with all of the transaction data that exists up to some point in time, so the new blockchain doesn't dilute the currency holdings of all Bitcoin users.

How in the world do you decide which point in time is the right one to invalidate transactions? You're saying a much better way to create a Bitcoin alternative is an intentionally disastrous hard economic fork?[/quote]

You pre-announce a new fork, giving people time to decide whether they want to upgrade to use the new network before it's created. It's pretty straightforward, and less disastrous for Bitcoin users than a competing blockchain being created in which they have zero BTC.

Even if they choose to not adopt the new Bitcoin-alt, at least in the event that it succeeds, they would still see their coins gain in value, since they hold some in the alt.

Quote
This way, if you had 50 BTC in the original network, you would have 50 BTC in the new network too.

Not if you received those 50 BTC for a payment after the fork cut off for valid transactions.

That's easy to solve. You include a minor change to the transaction format in the Bitcoin-alt, so that valid transactions in the Alt blockchain are invalid in the original blockchain, and vice versa.

Quote
That can happen too. In fact I said the market was bigger than myself and my detractors in the thread where I first proposed supporting Litecoin as a solution to the Bitcoin foundation disagreement.

Thank you for conceding that there is no way to know what the market will do or wants.

Quote
I didn't say the code wasn't 'Bitcoin technology'. I said all code doesn't belong only to something called Bitcoin. If you think it does you need to become familiar with what open source means.

I never said it 'belongs to Bitcoin', in the sense of being its property. Describing something as the 'Bitcoin market' or 'Bitcoin technology' doesn't mean I believe that the source code is not free to be modified and used to create parallel networks.
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June 22, 2013, 10:25:27 PM
 #43

Shorter block times do NOT make Bitcoin-alts more secure.
Who said they did?

All else equal, moderately shorter block times are more secure. Of course, that has to be weighed against the relative cost to perform such an attack on BTC vs LTC, given BTC's significantly higher hashing power.
 
reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/1cssqr/the_math_why_litecoin_is_more_secure_than_bitcoin/

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June 22, 2013, 10:26:48 PM
 #44

Shorter block times do NOT make Bitcoin-alts more secure.
Who said they did?

All else equal, moderately shorter block times are more secure. Of course, that has to be weighed against the relative cost to perform such an attack on BTC vs LTC, given BTC's significantly higher hashing power.
 
reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/1cssqr/the_math_why_litecoin_is_more_secure_than_bitcoin/

They are not more secure. That analysis misses the honest work lost to latency, which increases with shorter block times.
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June 22, 2013, 10:35:30 PM
 #45

All else equal, moderately shorter block times are more secure. Of course, that has to be weighed against the relative cost to perform such an attack on BTC vs LTC, given BTC's significantly higher hashing power.
 
reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/1cssqr/the_math_why_litecoin_is_more_secure_than_bitcoin/

They are not more secure. That analysis misses the honest work lost to latency, which increases with shorter block times.

Sure, for ridiculously short block times, but for 10 minutes [Edit: I mean 2.5 Smiley] average is latency loss significant enough to counterbalance the effect above? Source/numbers?

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June 22, 2013, 10:37:32 PM
Last edit: June 23, 2013, 02:30:28 AM by stdset
 #46

If Litecoin gets adoption comparable to Bitcoin, it's inevitable that they will compete.
Now let's try to imagine two scenarios:

1) Bitcoin wins. The more people accept a currency, the more people want to accept that currency as well. Bitcoin wins because of that network effect. Litecoin dies. The world moves foward with the new amazing technology, hopefully to become more free and prosperous. Bitcoin continues to appreciate by orders of magnitudes.

2) Litecoin wins. Bitcoin value crashes to 0. But so does value of Litecoin. Why? Because any sane individual sees that a cryptocurrency which was once the only cryptocurrency in the world, which, when other cryptocurrencies emerged, was called "the king of cryptocurrensyes", crashed. And litecoin is not different. Litecoin is nearly a copy of bitcoin. So, it will crash as well. One of greatest inventions of mankind will be wasted, the world will return to old and not so good fiat.

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June 22, 2013, 10:42:06 PM
 #47

All else equal, moderately shorter block times are more secure. Of course, that has to be weighed against the relative cost to perform such an attack on BTC vs LTC, given BTC's significantly higher hashing power.
 
reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/1cssqr/the_math_why_litecoin_is_more_secure_than_bitcoin/

They are not more secure. That analysis misses the honest work lost to latency, which increases with shorter block times.

Sure, for ridiculously short block times, but for 10 minutes average is latency loss significant enough to counterbalance the effect above? Source/numbers?

With 10 minute block times, 1% of honest work is lost to latency. With 2.5 minutes, I'm assuming it's 4%.

I personally think it's worth the loss in honest work to get more quickly secured confirmations, especially for a network like Bitcoin which has a massive hashrate making it safe from a >50% attack, but it's pretty subjective.

Also, shorter block times increases the advantage given to mining nodes with more connections to other mining nodes and faster internet connections, which counteracts decentralization.
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June 22, 2013, 10:58:43 PM
 #48

If Litecoin gets adoption comparable to Bitcoin, it's inevitable that they will compete.
Now let's try to imagine to scenarios:

1) Bitcoin wins. The more people accept a currency, the more people want to accept that currency as well. Bitcoin wins because of that network effect. Litecoin dies. The world moves foward with the new amazing technology, hopefully to become more free and prosperous. Bitcoin continues to appreciate by orders of magnitudes.

2) Litecoin wins. Bitcoin value crashes to 0. But so does value of Litecoin. Why? Because any sane individual sees that a cryptocurrency which was once the only cryptocurrency in the world, which, when other cryptocurrencies emerged, was called "the king of cryptocurrensyes", crashed. And litecoin is not different. Litecoin is nearly a copy of bitcoin. So, it will crash as well. One of greatest inventions of mankind will be wasted, the world will return to old and not so good fiat.

That's basically what Hal Finney said about the consequences of a competing Bitcoin-derived cryptocurrency replacing Bitcoin:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10666.msg152988#msg152988
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June 22, 2013, 11:14:02 PM
 #49

And you really think litecoin will be the last cryptocurrency with an enthusiastic group of early adopters claiming it's a necessary 'silver to Bitcoin's gold'? No of course not. There will be others, and they will be push until MtGox puts them on the exchange too.

At this rate, cryptocurrency will have an inflation rate far above any fiat currency. This is already the criticism that Bitcoin's harshest critics are making against it, and now we see that it potentially has some merit, with late-comers to Bitcoin pushing for the addition of 84 million coins, on their Bitcoin 2 network, to the currency supply.
Indeed. It's all and only about perception. The economics of Bitcoin do not matter now (they never did really) - at all, unless you sell them. It doesn't matter if some argue Bitcoin is crypto gold or there's a finite number of Bitcoins that are divisable, or that others grumble about early adopters that gain more or that miners are the central banks etc etc.

The specific technical details of Bitcoin only ever had a finite lifespan for perceived relevance and perhaps optimising one's personal position. This is why if Bitcoin was to be more than temporal it should have just forsaken any economic doctrine (be it perceived as left/right, keynesian/austrian whatever) and just got the damn things out to people as quickly as possible and built an infrastructure to use them. To do this it has to be inflationary, not because inflation is good or bad but because the end game of cryptos was always going to be inflationary through replication.

And no I do not favour ltc, or btc for that matter over one another, except as a trade. Neither is going to 'win' - for all intents and purposes they're all going to become fungible. If not via forking, protocol adjustments to chase competition and best traits as progress dictates then in terms of spending power and utilisation options. Otherwise the alternative for each and all will be 0, which as somebody else here put it will be an incredibly wasted opportunity, for now.
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June 22, 2013, 11:30:22 PM
 #50

The economics of Bitcoin matter because storing value is a necessary feature of a currency. Inflation reduces its utility as a store of value, and by extension, as a currency.

Also, as Mike Caldwell has argued, adding inflation to Bitcoin would make it lose its virulence. The prospect of buying a bitcoin today that is
one day worth $1 million has played no small part in its rapid adoption.

One final problem with inflation of cryptocurrencies is that it wastes energy. If for example Bitcoin was a major global currency and had a permanent inflation rate of 3%, that would mean that the global economy would consume resources with a value equal to 3% of the bitcoin money supply each year to produce hashes. Mining is totally useless work other than the security it provides, and security equaling 3% of a global currency's market capitalization is over-kill.
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June 22, 2013, 11:34:32 PM
 #51

amincd, you seem to be arguing not from an objective view, but one with an admitted motivation. You feel it necessary to proactively work against market adoption of Litecoin.

I read your entire response, and feel very tempted to (again) counter most everything you said. However, I don't have the time or interest in drawing this out even longer.

Instead I'll focus in on one particular point you made to try and illustrate why you and I may always have large disagreement.

Quote
A bitcoin is an arbitrary unit.

No it's not. If you think it is then sell me a bitcoin for $1.00.

Please stop misreading my comments. ...

Fundamentally, the amount of bitcoin is not 'extremely scarce', because bitcoins can be divided to 8 decimal places.

The bold emphasis is mine.

You just said fundamentally the amount of bitcoin is not extremely scarce because bitcoins can be divided to 8 decimal places.

I'm not sure how to explain to you what you're missing, and why that statement is wrong.

Yes, actually bitcoins are in fact extremely scarce when compared to billions of people potentially using them. Remove all the other alt-coins from the picture for a moment, and say there is only Bitcoin with its 21 million coin limit. It is true you can divide each and every one of those 21 million bitcoins into fractions, but what you cannot do is come up with more total whole bitcoins.

That means if you go to a store that will accept bitcoins for payment then your wealth can never be diminished by someone that adds more units with no value to the system. Whether a shopkeeper wants to label product pricing as 1 BTC or 1000 mBTC is irrelevant since mathematically those are exactly equal. However, what you must understand is adding zeros to the 'mBTC' labeling doesn't bring any more actual bitcoins into existence.

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June 22, 2013, 11:44:59 PM
 #52

Quote from: acoindr
You just said fundamentally the amount of bitcoin is not extremely scarce because bitcoins can be divided to 8 decimal places.

I'm not sure how to explain to you what you're missing, and why that statement is wrong.

I said this to dispel your silly juxtaposition of '21 million bitcoins' with '7 billion people' in your argument that bitcoin is 'extremely scarce'.

Quote
Yes, actually bitcoins are in fact extremely scarce when compared to billions of people potentially using them. Remove all the other alt-coins from the picture for a moment, and say there is only Bitcoin with its 21 million coin limit. It is true you can divide each and every one of those 21 million bitcoins into fractions, but what you cannot do is come up with more total whole bitcoins.

That means their supply is limited. To call them 'extremely scarce' because there are 'only 21 million bitcoin' suggests that if there were '21 billion' bitcoins, they wouldn't be scarce, which shows a fundamental misunderstanding on your part on how the divisibility of bitcoin makes what units you divide them into irrelevant.

To put another way, I could counter that bitcoin currency is not extremely scarce because there will be 2.1 quadrillion Satoshis, which is more than enough for 7 billion people.

So it's not HOW MANY units there are in the currency's supply that's relevant to scarcity, it's the rate at which the currency's supply grows. It seemed to be you didn't understand this as you kept pointing to the fact that there are 21 million bitcoins and 7 billion people to try to support your scarcity claim.
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June 23, 2013, 12:08:16 AM
 #53

The economics of Bitcoin matter because storing value is a necessary feature of a currency. Inflation reduces its utility as a store of value, and by extension, as a currency.

Also, as Mike Caldwell has argued, adding inflation to Bitcoin would make it lose its virulence. The prospect of buying a bitcoin today that is
one day worth $1 million has played no small part in its rapid adoption.

One final problem with inflation of cryptocurrencies is that it wastes energy. If for example Bitcoin was a major global currency and had a permanent inflation rate of 3%, that would mean that the global economy would consume resources with a value equal to 3% of the bitcoin money supply each year to produce hashes. Mining is totally useless work other than the security it provides, and security equaling 3% of a global currency's market capitalization is over-kill.
I would agree with you if they were not replicable, but they are. The economics of limited supply and that of bitcoin matters only to those with bitcoins. The greater public couldn't care less whether it's called bitcoin, Acoin, Bcoin, specific hashing algorithms, protocols etc - only what purpose they serve and most significantly others' perception of their value as such. I agree that for now perception of Bitcoin as limited still prevails (I understand that's technically true) but that window is closing (and by Bitcoin I mean most Alts, I'm not criticising anything but principles). Yes adding inflation to Bitcoin would make it lose its virulence but with X million or billion alternatives the economic effect is and will be equivalent unless Bitcoin offers something, an infrastructure, a promise that none other now or in the future can. But it doesn't. It is possible that Bitcoin retains a high value as a specific asset traded between a specific group for specific purposes - in fact the price could be anything under those circumstances. But as a competing asset against others for broader adoption, subject to market forces, that's not going to happen.

On your energy point I agree again and is one of my major concerns about cryptos but I don't think (I also don't know) that's the issue at play yet. Ideally there'd be a means whereby cryptos could capture future energy use rather than that in the past.
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June 23, 2013, 12:26:13 AM
 #54

So it's not HOW MANY units there are in the currency's supply that's relevant to scarcity, it's the rate at which the currency's supply grows.

And you're wrong, again.

There will be a point in the future when no more bitcoins are rewarded for blocks - in other words no more currency inflation. Is that true or false?

The answer is true, but if that's the case then how can your statement also be true? It can't. You said it's the rate at which the currency supply grows that's relevant to its scarcity. In other words, if there is no currency growth (as will happen with Bitcoin eventually) then there is no relevance for scarcity. That is completely false.

There will be 21 million bitcoins in existence for the world, and no more available. That limit makes them scarce. Currency supply growth rates have nothing to do with it at that point.
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June 23, 2013, 12:46:53 AM
 #55

I would agree with you if they were not replicable, but they are. The economics of limited supply and that of bitcoin matters only to those with bitcoins. The greater public couldn't care less whether it's called bitcoin, Acoin, Bcoin, specific hashing algorithms, protocols etc - only what purpose they serve and most significantly others' perception of their value as such. I agree that for now perception of Bitcoin as limited still prevails (I understand that's technically true) but that window is closing (and by Bitcoin I mean most Alts, I'm not criticising anything but principles).

You could very well be right, but it's also possible that Bitcoin has a network effect, that will result in it maintaining its dominant market share despite the emergence of copycats.


So it's not HOW MANY units there are in the currency's supply that's relevant to scarcity, it's the rate at which the currency's supply grows.

And you're wrong, again.

There will be a point in the future when no more bitcoins are rewarded for blocks - in other words no more currency inflation. Is that true or false?

The answer is true, but if that's the case then how can your statement also be true? It can't. You said it's the rate at which the currency supply grows that's relevant to its scarcity. In other words, if there is no currency growth (as will happen with Bitcoin eventually) then there is no relevance for scarcity. That is completely false.

I'm not sure why you're having so much trouble understanding my argument. Either I'm doing a very poor job of articulating myself, or you're deliberately misunderstanding me to avoid admitting you were wrong.

Here's what I'm stating: it doesn't matter if the algorithm determined that there will only be 21 million bitcoins or 21 billion. All that matters is that the supply is limited.

When you claim that Bitcoin only has 21 million bitcoins, which makes it "very scarce" because there are 7 billion people, it suggests you don't understand this.

Quote
There will be 21 million bitcoins in existence for the world, and no more available. That limit makes them scarce. Currency supply growth rates have nothing to do with it at that point.

Once again, you're not understanding my comment. Currency supply growth would be zero after some point in time, since the total supply will be limited at 21 million. "No supply growth" and "limited supply" are two different ways of saying the same thing. At what particular quantity of coins the supply is limited at is irrelevant. The only thing that's relevant is that the supply *IS* limited.
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June 23, 2013, 12:57:58 AM
 #56

Nice try.

This

The only thing that's relevant is that the supply *IS* limited.

does not equal this:

So it's not HOW MANY units there are in the currency's supply that's relevant to scarcity, it's the rate at which the currency's supply grows.

You should be big enough to admit when you're wrong, not try to save face after I've pointed out how you're in error. When you're talking about money - currency supply, inflation, deflation, measurements (like what 1 bitcoin is), etc. - these things do matter.
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June 23, 2013, 01:32:25 AM
 #57

I was trying to convey the same point in both quotes. You should be above trying to misinterpret and misrepresent my comments to try to discredit my argument.
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June 23, 2013, 02:09:41 AM
 #58

I was trying to convey the same point in both quotes. You should be above trying to misinterpret and misrepresent my comments to try to discredit my argument.

Like I said, when it comes to money being specific matters. It so happens rate of inflation can absolutely be a factor in how scarce a currency is, and it usually is, but it's not the only factor as you said it is.

Fine distinction of terms and concepts is important, especially when discussing or formulating opinions on a topic as complex as money.
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June 23, 2013, 02:23:04 AM
 #59

I was trying to convey the same point in both quotes. You should be above trying to misinterpret and misrepresent my comments to try to discredit my argument.

Your arguments aren't very good to begin with.
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June 23, 2013, 03:55:14 AM
 #60

I was trying to convey the same point in both quotes. You should be above trying to misinterpret and misrepresent my comments to try to discredit my argument.

Your arguments aren't very good to begin with.

I'm not surprised that someone invested in litecoins doesn't think my arguments are very good.

I was trying to convey the same point in both quotes. You should be above trying to misinterpret and misrepresent my comments to try to discredit my argument.

Like I said, when it comes to money being specific matters. It so happens rate of inflation can absolutely be a factor in how scarce a currency is, and it usually is, but it's not the only factor as you said it is.

Fine distinction of terms and concepts is important, especially when discussing or formulating opinions on a topic as complex as money.

But I never denied that the 'rate of inflation' is a factor in how scarce a currency is. I took issue with your claim that bitcoin is scarce because its 21 million coin supply is insufficient for a population of 7 billion. It wasn't the rate of inflation that you were indicating was the source of its scarcity, but the low nominal number of coins, which in reality is irrelevant.

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