US Inflation

[DaMut]

how about right now we're on the journey to find something new ?
what i mean is human is a weird existence they will never satisfy with what they have,
right now we have U.S as our money but everytime it get worse,
do not you think it's a bit odd in your view ?
and i believe U.S will not be the first one and will not be the last one either.
right now U.S has lost its credibility,
but it does not mean Bitcoin has it right now.

some people said U.S inflation caused a huge boost for Bitcoin,
may be yes may be no,
because everything can be happen with it and i believe fundamental analysis will not show us what is going on fully.
let see what will it be in the future

[phrost]

Well in that case, 6-8% is complete bullshit. Gas is very cheap compared to the last decade, groceries aside from beef show very little price change, things like car parts, clothes, utility bills, home improvement supplies, tools, etc etc etc do not show any significant inflation. What has gone through the roof is real estate in many parts of the US, and of course stocks are way up.
I see no signs of the kind of inflation in everyday purchaes that people are talking about in this thread. It may happen, but it's not happening  as far as I can tell.Most likely it is just hype to get the btc price to keep rising, but it has no basis in fact.

chesthing, I'm gonna have to flat out disagree with you on that. Do you even pay bills, bro?

My electric bill has doubled since 2009
My health insurance monthly premium has doubled since 2007
My haircuts have doubled since 2007
My grocery bill is up about 40% per shop since 2009
My oil changes have doubled since 2007
My water bill is up about 50% since 2009
New cars cost 30-40% more than they did in 2007
Most fast food is up about 25-30% since 2009
A sit down fine dining experience is up about 50% since 2009 (just look at the cost of a single cocktail now!)

Things that don't affect me, but I've heard that:
Rent is up about 20% over the last 4-5 years in major metro areas.
Real estate is back up to pre-2008 crash levels, and climbing higher still.
Cost of an average college degree up about 30-40% since 2007.

You're right though in that gas has gone down, and shit from China (ie., clothes, tools, home supplies, etc.) hasn't gone up all that much. But everything else has!

And the MAJOR thing that hasn't budged in a decade across the board is.... WAGES.

Excellent observation! I agree.

Take a look at this article: https://dailyreckoning.com/revealing-real-rate-inflation-crash-system/

Govt took out health care, energy and some types of foods from CPI-U method of calculation and also made this method unclear.

 

[phrost]

...I do think that the growth of bitcoin prices is kind of an indication that the dollar is losing credibility...

This conclusion is kind of problematic. Bitcoin has outperformed every other currency and every other asset class
on this planet as well. Therefore you can´t really argue that the dollar is losing credibility, because compared to
Bitcoin everything has lost credibility.

However, you are probably right that the dollar has lost credibility.

Take a look at the development of the purchasing power of the $ over the last decades:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mAg6FMpNGpM/Ta9ICcEMonI/AAAAAAAABBM/UoQG8vxtBX0/s1600/U.S.%2BDollar%2BPurchasing%2BPower.jpg

US printed a lot since 2008 and also nations are buying gold. Things are getting weird and they will not stop printing.

http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart2_11-04-13.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/05/20150527_russ_0.jpg

[Samarkand]

...
US printed a lot since 2008 and also nations are buying gold. Things are getting weird and they will not stop printing.

...

Interesting charts, phrost!

However, the Chinese also have problems of their own:
https://www.ft.com/content/a6086a9a-5059-11e7-bfb8-997009366969

China's shadow banking system can be described as credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular Chinese banking system.[1] China's shadow banking system has experienced rapid growth since the global financial crisis.[2]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/04/soaring-rates-shadow-banking-add-fears-chinese-debt-warns-world/

Maybe they are not only accumulating gold due to the loss of trust in their $ holdings, but also to be able
to stay in power when the shit hits the fan in their own country.

[dothebeats]

Lol the numbers seem to be on steroids and the government is reporting statistics which are way off than what is actually happening. This is bad, and could really lead into a big financial crisis yet again. The US have been enjoying their time printing their lovely dollar without knowing that other countries have just lost faith about it.

Oh boy this is exciting and terrifying at the same time.

[farhaan]

US government has tried its best in the past to restore the dollar value.But i think that it would not be successful any more in doing so.We al know that the US government prints dollars not based on the gold value it holds.Also,USD ha enjoyed almost seventy years as the global reserve currency and now,it is in its final stage.USD mainly gained value due to OPEC countries deciding to sell crude oil only for dollars.But now,china and russia have started to buy petrol from iran not in USD ,but in their own currency.So,its really a bad time for US.

[jjacob]

Lol the numbers seem to be on steroids and the government is reporting statistics which are way off than what is actually happening. This is bad, and could really lead into a big financial crisis yet again. The US have been enjoying their time printing their lovely dollar without knowing that other countries have just lost faith about it.

Oh boy this is exciting and terrifying at the same time.

Terrifying for the foreign governments who will be left holding worthless US dollars. If you are talking about other participants in the global economy, if the US government doesn't screw up, others will. Different central banks seem to be competing amongst themselves to  do the largest quantitative easing. When the inflation demon pops up, they will run in the opposite direction.

[BartS]

Lol the numbers seem to be on steroids and the government is reporting statistics which are way off than what is actually happening. This is bad, and could really lead into a big financial crisis yet again. The US have been enjoying their time printing their lovely dollar without knowing that other countries have just lost faith about it.

Oh boy this is exciting and terrifying at the same time.

Terrifying for the foreign governments who will be left holding worthless US dollars. If you are talking about other participants in the global economy, if the US government doesn't screw up, others will. Different central banks seem to be competing amongst themselves to  do the largest quantitative easing. When the inflation demon pops up, they will run in the opposite direction.

The problem with those countries is they have no option left, if they dump those dollars then the dollar becomes valueless and the economy of the world crumbles because of it, but if they keep those dollars then the US keeps printing more dollars and they keep storing them, they have no way to win the game and they know it, that is why they are not doing anything except spending some of those dollars to get some assets in return.

[Torque]

...I do think that the growth of bitcoin prices is kind of an indication that the dollar is losing credibility...

This conclusion is kind of problematic. Bitcoin has outperformed every other currency and every other asset class
on this planet as well. Therefore you can´t really argue that the dollar is losing credibility, because compared to
Bitcoin everything has lost credibility.

However, you are probably right that the dollar has lost credibility.

Take a look at the development of the purchasing power of the $ over the last decades:

US printed a lot since 2008 and also nations are buying gold. Things are getting weird and they will not stop printing.

Yeah, there's no way that China and Russia would be importing and stockpiling Gold like crazy if they didn't know that the PetroDollar as reserve currency is one day going to end. When exactly, no one knows, but from the rate of increase in their Gold holdings we could be as little as a decade away, or still two decades out. But make no mistake, the dollar is slowly dying. Everyone needs to be prepared by stocking up on a little Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and other deflationary assets.

[adaseb]

First iPhone ever released $400 (June 2007)

10 years later

iPhone 8 cost $700
iPhone X cost $1000
take average of these 2.
----------------------


I'd say its a pretty accurate inflation indicator

[phrost]

First iPhone ever released $400 (June 2007)

10 years later

iPhone 8 cost $700
iPhone X cost $1000
take average of these 2.
----------------------


I'd say its a pretty accurate inflation indicator

LOL.
You just summed this thread up with this example.
Thank you.
EOT;

[teilwalL05]

First iPhone ever released $400 (June 2007)

10 years later

iPhone 8 cost $700
iPhone X cost $1000
take average of these 2.
----------------------


I'd say its a pretty accurate inflation indicator

LOL.
You just summed this thread up with this example.
Thank you.
EOT;

In my opinion bitcoin had rise significantly big right now that even the people that don't know what to do with bitcoin have the most interest in earning it even if they don't have any idea how to, you can surely use that term of an Iphone changing it's price significantly too, that is a big leap of price we can see that a lot of people are doing right now and that is to convert their Fiat to bitcoin.

[phrost]

First iPhone ever released $400 (June 2007)

10 years later

iPhone 8 cost $700
iPhone X cost $1000
take average of these 2.
----------------------


I'd say its a pretty accurate inflation indicator

LOL.
You just summed this thread up with this example.
Thank you.
EOT;

In my opinion bitcoin had rise significantly big right now that even the people that don't know what to do with bitcoin have the most interest in earning it even if they don't have any idea how to, you can surely use that term of an Iphone changing it's price significantly too, that is a big leap of price we can see that a lot of people are doing right now and that is to convert their Fiat to bitcoin.

Yes, for sure. I spent all this year studying US inflation data, I found a lot of indicators that suggests a much higher inflation than govt has been presenting(2%). There are many inflation indicators between 6-10%(if you use 80s method you will reach 10%) and it scares me because we all know that to an inflation became a hyperinflation is quick as flash. Although the current US inflation calculation methods are not transparent the evidences is very solid. I never thought about the iphone but it really makes sense as another great example. Regards, phrost.

And it's no wonder that Bitcoin shows up as the best investment of the past 2 years.

-x-

Keep calm buy bitcoins and be phrost.

[audaciousbeing]

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

There is no way there wont be some level of secrecy in government publications no matter how transparent they want to make themselves or independent the body publishing the report so far they are affiliated with the government. If they are reporting a bad scenario just know that the report has been painted to be less bad and if they are reporting a good report, have it at the back of your mind that something have been added to make it better than the original and real position.

This is not only happening in the United States but all other countries of the world that believes in Information Management and put themselves in a position of deciding what the public needs to know as against what they ought to know. Believing that the truth will do more damage if allowed to the public domain.

[Torque]

Maybe some of you guys were too young to remember, or maybe you were in school at the time. But I remember the Financial Crisis of '08/'09 very well. It wasn't my first rodeo either living through a major market crash ('00/'01).

But when I saw all the talk about major financial institutions and banks failing, and talks of massive govt bailouts for the Central Banks, and at the same time all these sleazy, narcissistic banksters were still receiving massive $$$ million dollar bonuses, I knew that this time things really were different. Knowing the old saying about how the world's wealthy elites "Privatize successes and socialize losses", I knew that there was no way in hell that the Powers That Be were just going to let the free market run it's course and wipe out those ill managed financial institutions that the wealthy elites rely on for their wealth, status and positions. I KNEW that they were going to somehow "socialize all of the losses" of these massive bank bailouts, and now ten years later we are seeing the knock on effects of those socialized losses through lack of GDP growth dragged down by mega govt and corp debt, massive money printing, 0% interest rates, and thus lack of wage growth coupled with a significant increase in yearly inflation.

This how they had always planned to spread those losses throughout the population. This was by design. As if no one would notice. Every working man and woman has basically seen their total purchasing power cut in HALF during the last ten years, and their wealth decline, their debts level increase, etc. while the wealthy elites have actually gotten exponentially WEALTHIER during that same period. They never suffered a minute long, and never will. That's why they act so indifferent to what's really happening on the ground to Average Joe. Meanwhile the rest of us have suffered. The elites' paper wealth will also continue to rise, because the Central banks are committed to pumping cheap money into the stock markets pretty much indefinitely and buying up everything. In fact all of the FAANG stocks are in the process of being nationalized by the world banks right under our very noses. The U.S. stock market is in a melt up.

And I believe that it is gradually going to get worse. Over the next decade, GDP growth will continue to be anemic for the major countries, govt and corp debt will continue to balloon out of control, healthcare premiums will skyrocket, entitlements will suffer and start to default, inflation will still creep up at a steady 6-8%/yr rate, and wages will cap out for most of the middle and upper middle class.

The only way to combat all of this is to fight this insidious inflationary, stagnant environment that's going to be with us for some time. To invest in your future. Live a modest lifestyle based on what you can pay cash for. Stay active and healthy. Pay down and wipe out all of your personal debt, and invest like crazy in all of the deflationary assets that you can: Bitcoin, gold, silver, real estate, land, art, collectables, etc. Use it all to build up your wealth, and then diversify to have your money make more money.

[phrost]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother-with-the-cpi/#11474e3a200b

[Coffee135]

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

There is no way there wont be some level of secrecy in government publications no matter how transparent they want to make themselves or independent the body publishing the report so far they are affiliated with the government. If they are reporting a bad scenario just know that the report has been painted to be less bad and if they are reporting a good report, have it at the back of your mind that something have been added to make it better than the original and real position.

This is not only happening in the United States but all other countries of the world that believes in Information Management and put themselves in a position of deciding what the public needs to know as against what they ought to know. Believing that the truth will do more damage if allowed to the public domain.

I am not a supporter of the government but in this case I think they are right. The government's duty is to ensure the stability of the economy. Can you imagine what will happen in the country if you are a banker, or Minister and say that next year you will buy for $ 2-3 times less goods than it is now.

[aardvark15]

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The high inflation in the United States and around the world is one reason why scarce commodities like cryptocurrencies and gold will do well in the future.

Fiat currencies are worth less with each passing year but Bitcoin (and most altcoins) were designed to have a limited supply to make them deflationary.

However, someone did point out that the cryptocurrency market is being flooded with new coins so in a way, there is a huge supply. Some will succeed, but most will fail. I think the cryptocurrency market might be better off if there were only 10 or 12 cryptocurrencies that were widely used.

[F3arl3ss]

Again like others I cannot seem to grasp how the inflation rate could be above ~2%, all market data tends to point to this.

Looking at FED data from the last 35 years (1982-2017), prices have increased by an average of 2.4x. This compounded yearly over 35 years yields: 2.5%.  Please someone explain how it is even remotely possible to have rates about 6-8%???

[ivrynx]

The US dollar is growing weaker, it is just considered a paper note, it is not backed up by gold or any assets, it is just used to buy oil, but you can still use any other currency to buy oil, they just turn the US dollar to petrodollar, which in turn will lead to the us dollar's fall, and as we had seen in so many depressions, an increase in the value of oil, means a decrease in the value of the dollar and loosing it's buying power. It is much better to invest in cryptocurrencies today, rather than just on dollar alone, since dollar will soon be obsolete, because people will realize, there money is of no value.