US Inflation

[BartS]

First iPhone ever released $400 (June 2007)

10 years later

iPhone 8 cost $700
iPhone X cost $1000
take average of these 2.
----------------------


I'd say its a pretty accurate inflation indicator

Every time you make those kind of exercises you see the real inflation, I have keep track of the price of milk in my country and I get similar results, according to our government the inflation is something like 3% or 4% per year but when I track the price of milk I get something close to 10% per year, you can do this with almost any product and you will get the same results in my country.

[1715152558]

1715152558

[1715152558]

1715152558

[1715152558]

1715152558

[1715152558]

1715152558

[1715152558]

1715152558

[Torque]

Inflation update.

Was at the grocery store the other day.

6 oz. package of raspberries cost $2.99/ea. !  Was $1.99 just 12 months ago.

6 oz. package of blackberries cost $3.99/ea. ! Was $2.99 just 12 months ago.

1 pint of blueberries cost $3.99/ea. ! Was $2.99 just 12-18 months ago.

16 oz. package of strawberries cost $3.99/ea. ! Was $2.99 just 12 months ago.

Not to mention that the store has gone with lower quality distributors now, as the fruit is always starting to mold and rot now in the packaging at the store before you've even bought it. Just last year and before that, it was always pristine looking and would last days.


But....b.but... the govt says inflation is less than 2%! Inflation isn't a concern!  

[Torque]

Inflation update for 2018:

Welp, Uncle Sam changed the tax laws this year so that corporations will enjoy a one-time lower corporate rate to repatriate dollars held in their offshore accounts. Which means that boat loads of fresh dollars will begin to flood back into the U.S. next year.

Couple that with M2 money supply velocity still going nowhere, and a flood of new dollars chasing fewer domestic goods and services, and what do you get? Higher inflation.

So you better back up the truck on deflationary assets like Bitcoin, PMs, real estate, etc. You're going to need to offset that inevitable rise in yearly inflation that will be felt by 3rd or 4th quarter of 2018, and well into the next decade.

[Samarkand]

...

Couple that with M2 money supply velocity still going nowhere, and a flood of new dollars chasing fewer domestic goods and services, and what do you get? Higher inflation.

So you better back up the truck on deflationary assets like Bitcoin, PMs, real estate, etc. You're going to need to offset that inevitable rise in yearly inflation that will be felt by 3rd or 4th quarter of 2018, and well into the next decade.

I agree with the basic premise of your post. However, you forgot
to mention the most important factor of influence - eventual interest
rate hikes or interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

If the Fed is going to increase interest rates multiple times in 2018 this
could prevent the inevitable rise in yearly inflation from happening.

Anyway, inflation is going to rise in the next few years, which obviously makes
Bitcoin and precious metals a mandatory part of every investment portfolio.

[Wilhelm]

The US dollar is built on debt.
There is more debt than money.
The system was made to accept an ever growing debt....

Nobody needs BTC to fix the US dollar because the US dollar is working as built.
But it would be cool to see a country as the US using Bitcoin to get their economy boosted

[Torque]

Some good reading:

http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2018/01/why-our-economy-is-in-depression-and.html

http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2016/09/were-reaching-end-of-road.html

http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2016/09/declining-global-money-supply-taking.html

TL/DR:
Buy Bitcoin, PMs, real estate, and other deflationary assets. Get your long terms savings out of the dollar!

[Torque]

Inflation update.

Was at the grocery store the other day.

6 oz. package of raspberries cost $2.99/ea. $3.99/ea.

16 oz. package of strawberries cost $3.99/ea. $5.00/ea.

Cucumbers now $1.69/ea. !!!!!!!

But....b.but... the govt says inflation is less than 2%! Inflation isn't a concern! 

[hahahafr]

US has the biggest inflation that has ever been seen during the last few years, they are printing more than 160 million dollars a day, that is more money than what i am ever going to see.
It is insane, they are the only country that doesn't stop creating more debt.

[Granxis]

I know that Donald Trump does not want a dollar with strong value, the dollar dropped against the Euro and the British Pound. I think inflation rates are not right, I think US inflation is more. So misleading inflation is being shown.

[ihsanskanzaone]

U.S. Inflation Rate, 2014-2017 ($ 100)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, the dollar experienced an average inflation rate of 1.12% per year. Prices in 2017 are 3.4% higher than prices in 2014.

In other words, $ 100 in the year 2014 is equivalent to $ 103.40 in 2017, a difference of $ 3.40 over 3 years.

The inflation rate in 2017 was 1.99%.

you can see here = http://www.in2013dollars.com/2014-dollars-in-2017

in contrast to the bitcoin that will not experience inflation because the number is only 21 million and every 4 years the amount of bitcoin is released relative to the previous cycle and this will keep repeating so it will not cause inflation.

[Torque]

The inflation rate in 2017 was 1.99%.

you can see here = http://www.in2013dollars.com/2014-dollars-in-2017

Suuuuure it was. Is that why the dollar fell 10% in 2017 alone?   /s 

Btw if anyone was wondering, the US economy has completely flatlined and is going nowhere. Expect inflation to keep rising.

Evidence:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

[vectorshield]

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The information is useful and it confirms the data you see in reality, many people complain about the rising prices but they never take the time to make a comparison of prices of the same thing in different years if they did they will realize very quickly the official stats are a lie.

[Samarkand]

...

Btw if anyone was wondering, the US economy has completely flatlined and is going nowhere. Expect inflation to keep rising.

Evidence:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

Couldn´t the steep decline in the velocity of money be explained by the huge
inflow of money in real estate and the capital markets? These funds are tied up for longer
periods of time and therefore can´t circulate in the economy.

Of course this is fueled by the expansion of the money supply by the central banks
all over the world.

I´m just unsure how reliable the velocity statistic is as an indicator of general
economic activity in the US. Anyway, I obviously agree with your argument that
the US inflation rate is much higher than the official statistics suggest.

[Torque]

Couldn´t the steep decline in the velocity of money be explained by the huge
inflow of money in real estate and the capital markets? These funds are tied up for longer
periods of time and therefore can´t circulate in the economy.

Of course this is fueled by the expansion of the money supply by the central banks
all over the world.

I´m just unsure how reliable the velocity statistic is as an indicator of general
economic activity in the US. Anyway, I obviously agree with your argument that
the US inflation rate is much higher than the official statistics suggest.

The fact is that in the U.S., mom and pop Average Joe are up to their eyeballs in peak debt and bills, and therefore have no free cash flow to spend on fun/needless things and services like they were in the last two decades. They've cut back just about everywhere they can, and any discretionary money they get is now going straight to debt servicing. That's why money is not moving domestically. Meanwhile over the last decade they've seen their wages go nowhere, and thus their purchasing power has declined 20-35% in that same time frame. All their bills went up.

And look at the chart, the current M2 money velocity is even lower that the ~1.7 average going all the way back to the 1960's. It's at the lowest level in 55 years!

[Samarkand]

...
The fact is that in the U.S., mom and pop Average Joe are up to their eyeballs in peak debt and bills, and therefore have no free cash flow to spend on fun/needless things and services like they were in the last two decades. They've cut back just about everywhere they can, and any discretionary money they get is now going straight to debt servicing. That's why money is not moving domestically.

And look at the chart, the current M2 money velocity is even lower that the ~1.7 average going all the way back to the 1960's. It's at the lowest level in 55 years!

I agree with everything you said.

Additionally, rising rents probably are another reason for the lack of disposable income.
If you pay more than half of your after-tax income for rent/housing you don´t have any
funds for fun/needless things.

The real question is how long this situation can continue. People, who are equally worried about
rising Inflation have been predicting a collapse of the economy that hasn´t happened, because
the central banks keep on expanding the money supply. We will see how far they can kick
the can down the road...

[Torque]

Gary Cohn, the White House Chief Economic Adviser on tape admitting that job growth and wage growth have flatlined:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5717818506001/

Quote:
".... for the last 3,4,5 years, we've had no wage growth in the United States, and the [employment] participation rate has remained stagnant at best.... we NEED to see wage growth in this country, something we haven't seen in almost a decade."

Finally we have someone from the U.S. Administration admitting the problem!

[Torque]

Warning: The Financial System Just Made a Tectonic Shift
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-23/warning-financial-system-just-made-tectonic-shift

*the sound of trumpets*
"Inflation is coming! Inflation is coming!"

[Idrisu]

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

I just hear this inflation issue just now on CNN and I think this should create Btc/usd bullish market. I think in Asia section dollars fall again all others currency today. In days to come dollars is going to get weaking against bit coin. I will still be holding my bitcoin as I have confidence that it is going to bance back very soon.

[alyssa85]

Warning: The Financial System Just Made a Tectonic Shift
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-23/warning-financial-system-just-made-tectonic-shift

*the sound of trumpets*
"Inflation is coming! Inflation is coming!"

The US is raising interest rates - that should squeeze any inflation out of the system. I predict that US rates will be over 2% by the end of this year.

[Basmic]

Whatever is happening to dollar is as a result of investors now identifying bitcoin as a store of value and they are now converting savings to hold. The popularity of bitcoin is far reaching to the economy of the world so far as dollar is concerned.

It seems to me that the Americans understood this and now will start to operate. Bitcoins have had the chance to become number one currency. But the greed of all those involved in the bitcoin community have turned the bitcoin bubble. A lot of people thought that bitcoin would allow them to become millionaires. Now we fully depend on what tactics you will choose America. If they decide to destroy bitcoin they would do it.