Bitcoin Block Halving Price Impact

[chino517]

My theory is that the block being halved creates a bubble-- it will drastically increase the price since miners will do one of three things

1) Sell their coins at a profit, if they are getting half as many bitcoins per block, over time they would be likely to charge at least twice as much.
2) Hold their bitcoins that they've mined. Holding them will also increase the price, as there are less coins being traded.
3) Stop mining.

The third would only happen if the electricity costs outweighed their profits which leads to my question--

Are miners currently a large enough portion of people selling bitcoins to significantly impact their price?

If the miners are a large enough portion of people selling coins, they would raise the price to remain profitable.

Whether miners sell or hold, the price should increase (assuming we continue to have increased adoption) when a block is halved. Once the price raises to a value that is considered "unreasonable" to bitcoin users who aren't mining, the price should drop to a more fair value.


This is all just speculation, and we really won't have "good" statistics for it until we get to see the next halving, but let me know what you all think.

Chino

[odolvlobo]

Are miners currently a large enough portion of people selling bitcoins to significantly impact their price?

3600 bitcoins are mined every day. About 50,000 BTC are traded every day. If every bitcoin that was mined was sold on on an exchange, those sales would only account for about 7% of the total exchange volume.

The fact that mined bitcoins are a small part of exchange volume and that there is no mining cartel, leads me to believe that the actions of miners have no effect on the price of BTC.

[mitsarasss]

Are miners currently a large enough portion of people selling bitcoins to significantly impact their price?

3600 bitcoins are mined every day. About 50,000 BTC are traded every day. If every bitcoin that was mined was sold on on an exchange, those sales would only account for about 7% of the total exchange volume.

The fact that mined bitcoins are a small part of exchange volume and that there is no mining cartel, leads me to believe that the actions of miners have no effect on the price of BTC.

Your numbers are incorrect because the 50.000 BTC traded every day include transactions happening from the same person at that day.

For example one buys at X price, then when price is y he sells. Then decides to buy again when price is Z and then sells.....
The TOTAL of those transactions is the number of coins traded each day.

For example that person can start with 100BTC keep on selling and buying all day and still have 100BTC at the end of the day, while the amount of "traded" BTC will be much higher that 100BTC.

So i believe the amount of bitcoins mined account to a much higher number of real daily trades.

[maurya78]

I think since halving is expected, the market will start pricing it in well before the event so that the halving itself will pass relatively uneventfully. Yes, it is broadly positive as it signals less (programmed) inflation in the future but we will see

[notlist3d]

No one could tell you for sure.  Personally I hope it will make it go up a decent amount in value, but it wont be instant.  I predict mining will be hard and slowly it will go up.

Again its just my opinion.

[BeginToMine]

It should create another bubble. Too bad we have only one halving happened before, there is nothing to compare.

[odolvlobo]

This topic was discussed at length before the previous halving and there were many predictions. In the end, the only thing that happened was that the difficulty went down a little. At that time, mining had only a small effect on the price, if any. This time around, it will have even less.

[gangplankk]

i think its just another bubble.

[AltcoinInvestor]

Are miners currently a large enough portion of people selling bitcoins to significantly impact their price?

3600 bitcoins are mined every day. About 50,000 BTC are traded every day. If every bitcoin that was mined was sold on on an exchange, those sales would only account for about 7% of the total exchange volume.

The fact that mined bitcoins are a small part of exchange volume and that there is no mining cartel, leads me to believe that the actions of miners have no effect on the price of BTC.

it's quite more than %7.

same bitcoins are just changing hands.

mined bitcoins are at least %25 percent of the total traded bitcoins.

[jambola2]

August 2016 ?

A bit early for speculation, isn't it ?

It is really likely that Bitcoin will go into tens of thousands or drop below 100$ (death) before that.

There is a chance that there will be an altcoin in the near future whose features are good enough to make it beat BTC. I really wish altcoin devs would stop churning clones, and let them be taken more seriously.

[Velkro]

It is really likely that Bitcoin will go into tens of thousands or drop below 100$ (death) before that.

I don't think it must happen, Bitcoin can be at 300-1200 range at that time also.

[Loophole]

It is really likely that Bitcoin will go into tens of thousands or drop below 100$ (death) before that.

I don't think it must happen, Bitcoin can be at 300-1200 range at that time also.

Of course, but for some reason, most of the bitcoin price speculations I found are either very optimistic (like price going up 10-fold a year, bitcoin replacing fiat, etc.) or very pessimistic (bitcoin going to fail completely in reaching mainstream, bitcoin going to be dead and replaced by another altcoin).