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对近期市场的一点思考
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Topic: 对近期市场的一点思考 (Read 828 times)
lb9188
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对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 08:45:11 AM
#1
接触比特币时间不长,从最初的无比兴奋,通宵达旦查阅资料,论坛潜水,到处找关于比特币的一切资料,现在还能清楚记起当时钱包进账第一笔比特币时那种无比兴奋滴赶脚!那是我接触比特币的第二天,当天就买入了几万的币,然只叹生不逢时,从买完币后,就开始进入下跌通道,直到现在,跌掉近10个点,但是我反而心里踏实了很多,亏损让我强迫自己迅速冷静下来,乐观分析市场的风云变幻。经过这段时间观察,目睹各种团购和代工业务如火如荼,巨量资金流入到少数某种程度初步形成垄断地位的厂商手里,本能告诉我巨大风险正在酝酿升温,风暴在悄然形成,有些人注定成为烈士!四月有神秘买家下20万娃娃龙芯片大单的情况下竟然还有这么多人参与团购,还是在发货期不定而且好几家性价比更高的矿机即将上市的时间节点,实在让人不解。须知现在矿机包括代工实在是暴利行当,可以预料不久暴利将被终结,算力将飙到超出想象,伴随着大量抛币造成的价格跳水,恐怕到时世界剩下的只能是一片白茫茫吧。谨以此文,提醒头脑发热的玩家,入市需谨慎,投资有风险!
innovation
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 09:09:23 AM
#2
我想你说的有一定的道理,但肯定不全对。
让时间证明您说的话吧。
ef_asm
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 09:31:51 AM
#3
短期内矿机大量发货会导致算力飙升、难度飙升,很多买了高价矿机的人亏本。
但是从长期来看,ASIC会带来两个变化:
1:难度上涨导致比特币网络不容易遭到51%攻击。(假如不考虑矿池的脆弱性的话)
2:专用矿机的制造技术成熟以后,垄断的风险反而会减小。因为技术成熟以后,各个厂家的生产成本差不多,到时候只能拼谁的电价便宜,以及谁的维护矿机运行的人力成本便宜。 若只考虑电价,矿机恐怕会向中东、俄罗斯集中,若只考虑保养矿机的人力,矿机恐怕会向中国或其他人口众多的地方集中。
lb9188
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 09:39:05 AM
#4
只是我个人一点想法罢了,可能不太成熟,欢迎讨论啊,集思广益更容易做出正确决定。让时间来见证一切吧,希望大家都能投资成功哈:-)
innovation
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 10:19:07 AM
#5
Quote from: ef_asm on June 22, 2013, 09:31:51 AM
短期内矿机大量发货会导致算力飙升、难度飙升,很多买了高价矿机的人亏本。
但是从长期来看,ASIC会带来两个变化:
1:难度上涨导致比特币网络不容易遭到51%攻击。(假如不考虑矿池的脆弱性的话)
2:专用矿机的制造技术成熟以后,垄断的风险反而会减小。因为技术成熟以后,各个厂家的生产成本差不多,到时候只能拼谁的电价便宜,以及谁的维护矿机运行的人力成本便宜。 若只考虑电价,矿机恐怕会向中东、俄罗斯集中,若只考虑保养矿机的人力,矿机恐怕会向中国或其他人口众多的地方集中。
我绝对对于大户来说,电价没有影响。可以忽略。
最后拼的是研发能力和售后服务。只有新技术能打破垄断和平衡。如果既有技术,又把售后做好,那肯定就是王者。
innovation
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 10:19:43 AM
#6
Quote from: lb9188 on June 22, 2013, 09:39:05 AM
只是我个人一点想法罢了,可能不太成熟,欢迎讨论啊,集思广益更容易做出正确决定。让时间来见证一切吧,希望大家都能投资成功哈:-)
期待成功。
lb9188
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 10:40:42 AM
#7
目前来看,竞争关键应该还是在成本上,这个成本主要是研发和生产成本,当然稳定性和售后也很重要,毕竟直接关系矿工收益,后期算力激增后才会慢慢转向拼电价格和功耗,那时能回本的早回了,回不了的基本这辈子也别指望了
bigteeth
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Re: 对近期市场的一点思考
June 22, 2013, 05:11:36 PM
#8
嗯,我也觉得团购代工风险收益不成比例。。想想还是算了。。
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