150k USD startup budget. Help needed!

[Bitcoinorama]

In that case I sincerely look forward to seeing what you have to offer and apologise for any crossed wiring. Best of luck, again.

I genuinely wasn't hinting at anything. I think the amount of hours you've spent on this forum is clouding your judgement. We'll welcome the scrutiny once we start marketing anything. The reason why I've invested in our own chip development is simply because none of the previous suppliers were up to the standards we usually expect in the world outside of Bitcoin.

I'd genuinely like to see a UK entrant 'Abdi Mohammed'.

Quite a bit underhand there. By the way, that wasn't meant as a snipe but that got under your skin for some reason.

Working on anything below 65nm isn't a garage operation and we worked that out quite a long time ago. Most the R&D is currently being outsourced to a design partner with close ties to the foundry we'll be using.

All that matters is time to market and price and with the added value of a lack of a risky pre-order deposit we haven't got much to worry about.

Who was underhand, me, or you? I know I wasn't. I just stated facts. You just alluded to me having a less than innocent intention, which is crap, and totally underhand. Follow my posting history. I started out on this forum busting scams. There's nothing to bust with KnC, so don't cry foul play on my part there. Me visiting them is just my commitment to due diligence on my part. My sharing of that info, is nothing more than I attended and others have a right to know what went down. Nothing untoward there, they have talent, fact. I'd sure as hell visit you before investing, because you're appearing on this scene as a nobody. If you're not a scam, there is nothing to worry about, and you'll undoubtedly do your best to provide evidence to the contrary. Just be aware that people are jaded with BS, and no one knows who you are, or your intentions. You've yet to meet Phinneaus Gage and have him scrutinise you...

28nm, in a few months, with sub $1,000 products is a bold claim from Industry experts, let alone a rag trader from Birmingham. Why do you have an issue with me questioning that?

If you think that's someone being anything less than cautious, I suggest you be less sensitive, because any proposal you follow through here will be torn to pieces and every minor aspect questioned. Your partners better be comfortable with that as well, as people are going to want to know everything you care to share that is not sensitive competitively speaking.

Good luck, genuinely...

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[Loredo]

How did you get $150k without having any idea what you were going to do with it?  Pay me some % as a consultant and I'll give you some advice.

And I'll give you some for free, which will be worth every penny you pay for it.

By autumn, 150K will likely buy you, retail off the rack, between 10 and 15 Thps.  By then (think Avalon, KnC, bitfury coming online in force, and BFL at their rate) the network could easily be as high as 750 to 1000 Thps.  You would then be, at that rate, somewhere around (1/10)% of the network, or somewhere around 4 (rounded) BTC per day.

At that constant rate, and under $100 BTC xRate, you would be looking at around 50 weeks for gross revenue to cover capital investment.  Alternatively, you could back-of-envelope pro forma 1000 Thps steady state for the network, and thus, use that 4 BTC as a "constant" rate.

Money for Nothing and Chicks for Free is in it's final few weeks of run.  Make sure you and/or your investors understand bitcoin mining is rapidly morphing, best-case, into an attractive-to-some, reasonable-risk-adjusted return business.    

[Rampion]

Essentially If you had 150k to spend on bitcoin machines what would you do?

I would wait.
(i'm extremely serious).

I would buy 150k$ worth of BTC, then wait.
(i'm extremely serious too).

This.

The guy knows what he's talking about, he have run a big mining op.

[greaterninja]

If I had 150k, I would work on designing a highly efficient FPGA.  Then maybe turn it into an ASIC chip with FPGA to ASIC Conversion.


OR I would do DIY ASIC like Avalon.  Chips are ~100k USD, hundreds of PCB run in thousands range.

[johnyj]

You should use them to cooperate with some university researchers to get the next generation quantum mining chips out  

Or you just buy bitcoin with those money, average down

[Professor James Moriarty]

 I would suggest to stay away from machines with that kind of money . The difficulty just rises up all the time and your ROI would be very long whereas you can have a start-up that takes bitcoin as a payment or even basically selling and buying is more than enough.

 When you buy 100k worth of bitcoins at 98 and sell it 102 , thats enough profit to keep going on that path

[Flying Hellfish]

Essentially If you had 150k to spend on bitcoin machines what would you do?

I would wait.
(i'm extremely serious).

I would buy 150k$ worth of BTC, then wait.
(i'm extremely serious too).

I wouldn't at all, not for the short term. Lot's of idiots have ignored repeated advice not to use debt to finance mining.

Do you realise what this means when companies start to deliver and the hashrate is a lot greater?

A lot of coins being sold to recoup ROI, and cover debt.
This equals a likely fall in BTC price, unless mainstream adoption causes more parties to buy.

I would be bricking myself right now if I'd got into debt for ASIC development and pre-orders.

Of course this scenario may not happen like this, but market pricing is dependant on sellers vs. buyers, and blatantly there will be a sudden rush of sellers.

There is nothing courageous about using debt in this situation, or more than one can afford to lose. Only a total idiot would be buying ASIC pre-orders with borrowed money!

$100 is a very psychological number, a milestone, it's the reason we are bouncing around it now.

I tend to disagree with both of the bolded statements.  With regards to the first one, ~3600 coins a day is ~3600 coins a day and it will be ~3600 coins a day until the next BH.  There is already a percentage of mined coins that are turned in to fiat quickly from miners so technically all that can happen is that percentage increases by a variable/unknown amount.  I think you are over valuing the miners contribution to the price of BTC.  11+ million coins, a 1+ billion USD market cap should be able to absorb any "extra" coins being turned into fiat quite easily with little to no affect on the price IMO.

With regards to the second one we are only hovering around the $100 range because that is the value currently set by the market and the market demands.  If a shit ton of coins hit the market somehow the price will drop, if supply slows down the price will go up.  Remember we flirted (or did we actually hit $300 usd) which is much more "psychological" than $100, remember not everyone has been around since $3.00 or $10.00 coins.

[crashoveride54902]

if i had 150k to invest i'd maybe buy 1 or 2 in hand avalons and buy btc with the rest and then buy AM shares in auction on this forum n btct...but that is just me...I'm crazy like that

but good luck to you and i hope you don't lose any money

[regular]

Maybe contact Yifu and see if you can do a big block order like horserider did.

[Loredo]

Remember we flirted (or did we actually hit $300 usd) which is much more "psychological" than $100, remember not everyone has been around since $3.00 or $10.00 coins.

That run up is all the more interesting because it coincided with the banking crisis in Cyprus, where there was a clear, present, and, ultimately, not totally unfounded threat to large foreign deposits (a large plurality of which were Russian, of reported questionable origins).

If it did happen that there were large BTC purchases as flight from "hard" currencies (I know, "fiat," but until they no longer trade trillions of USD per day in the open markets, they are real currencies), or as flight from such bank accounts, it would have been one of the first instances of true, large demand for BTC rather than flow from  speculative scalp trading of the xRate.

And that, again, if it happened, speaks well for the value of BTC if and when adoption and acceptance spreads to a critical mass.