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Author Topic: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.  (Read 558 times)
boumalo
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November 19, 2017, 03:16:01 PM
 #1

I would like to tell you my opinion about the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.

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November 20, 2017, 07:28:25 PM
 #2

Do you really need to post this thread twice?
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November 20, 2017, 08:02:21 PM
 #3

Bitcoin become a currency that's for sure. But to call him a bubble too. Look at the growth in stock prices of companies that produce equipment for the miners. A contribution of bitcoin in the real economy. This is only the beginning. Let's assume Elon Musk will sell Tesla its only for bitcoins. He loves to shock the audience. Then there will be the opportunity to invest in bitcoins, Tesla's shares. I'm sure if the opportunity to profit from investing in bitcoin it will attract many investors. You are too hasty to call bitcoin a bubble.

 
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November 20, 2017, 08:12:01 PM
 #4

Bitcoin become a currency that's for sure. But to call him a bubble too. Look at the growth in stock prices of companies that produce equipment for the miners. A contribution of bitcoin in the real economy. This is only the beginning. Let's assume Elon Musk will sell Tesla its only for bitcoins. He loves to shock the audience. Then there will be the opportunity to invest in bitcoins, Tesla's shares. I'm sure if the opportunity to profit from investing in bitcoin it will attract many investors. You are too hasty to call bitcoin a bubble.

That's not true, if you were to look at the growth of Bitcoin at the moment you'd see that it's driven by traders, and not by people actually using Bitcoin for what it's intended to be used for. Yes we've added more and more trading volume over the past few years, but can you think about finding a place around you (local) that accepts Bitcoins for transcations? No, you probably can't.

This is a bubble, and it will pop,

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November 21, 2017, 09:32:36 AM
 #5

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

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November 22, 2017, 12:37:31 AM
 #6

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

I remember a time when 1 bitcoin was worth around $12. I earned 0.01 btc through faucets. A user on this forum named Otoh gave me 0.09 so that I could have 0.1 btc. (I still intend to pay him back for that someday, btw) Having seen bitcoin at $10-$12, it would be very easy to assume bitcoin was a bubble @ $200.

There's no doubt that bitcoin was $200 not long ago. The question as to whether bitcoin is a bubble may revolve around whether bitcoin was severely undervalued when it was priced @ $200. If btc was significantly undervalued (which it may have been) recent price gains could be sustainable.

There can be significant lag time between fundamental growth and actual price movements.

Bitcoin's high before $200 was $1,000+. It dropped from $1,000+ down to $200, if I'm remembering right. This could be evidence that bitcoin was severely undervalued @ $200. Its real value might have been more than $1,000.

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November 22, 2017, 05:53:31 AM
 #7



snip



Quote
Bitcoin's high before $200 was $1,000+. It dropped from $1,000+ down to $200, if I'm remembering right. This could be evidence that bitcoin was severely undervalued @ $200. Its real value might have been more than $1,000.


So this means its a bubble yet at the value of 8K plus where we still have the chance of bitcoin getting all high upto the mark of we don't know yet or have not imagined yet. Im sure people back in the time used to think in the same way as we are doing it right now. But in the current situation the ear has developed a lot and people actually know about the bitcoin in first place which makes it easier for them to invest into it even at this very much high point. It is the start line for them and how would they not invest it after knowing the history of bitcoin. The bubble is always will be there and as you said the thing could be down to any movement and with any unimaginable value or it could be upwards in the same way. We never know what the right and wrong bubble here but we do know that this is not the actual price for the bitcoin yet.



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November 23, 2017, 07:59:20 PM
 #8

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

Yes it can keep going up as long as people are willing to pay more for it but it will stop with the correct circonstances, it's very hard to say if the drop will be in a month or a year and from 8k or 40k but it has to happen if the use of bitcoins don't increase too much.

The longer the price stays relatively high, the stronger the price looks and we can keep having ATH, especially if the US Dollar is falling more and more rapidely in the meantime.

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November 23, 2017, 08:56:50 PM
 #9

Bitcoin become a currency that's for sure. But to call him a bubble too.


Him? So it's becoming a person now? Next thing we'll have ourselves a religion  Grin

Look at the growth in stock prices of companies that produce equipment for the miners. A contribution of bitcoin in the real economy. This is only the beginning. Let's assume Elon Musk will sell Tesla its only for bitcoins. He loves to shock the audience. Then there will be the opportunity to invest in bitcoins, Tesla's shares.
I'm sure if the opportunity to profit from investing in bitcoin it will attract many investors. You are too hasty to call bitcoin a bubble.

Are you really going to legitimize this assumption with that ridiculous example of Tesla shares? Please!

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

I don't agree. What if this bubble never pops because stores will start accepting it and you'll be able to turn your profits directly into goods without the need of exchanges?
Internet was also called a bubble back in the day.

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December 05, 2017, 11:15:03 PM
 #10

BCH seems promising, Bitcoin was sold as great for small payment, it's not anymore. For example, satoshidice now uses BCH.

Bitcoin has gone so far and is known and trusted by so many that it's easy to think it will remain a store of value for a lot of people. There will be huge swings in price though, it's hard to say how it will trade because it's a new market.

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December 06, 2017, 12:52:43 AM
 #11

This teatrise makes a lot of sense considering that no one knows what the market strength and penetration is presently. Neither do we know what it'll be when Bitcoin cap has gotten to its peak.

There doesn't seem to be any form of statistical data available with which speculative investors can make informed decisions. We all hope that the majority of adopters are believers. However, this is mere wishful thinking.

Someone actually likened Bitcoin to ponzi. This may be one extreme though, we are aware that most adopters are utilizing the coin as a digital asset in lieu of a digital currency. That sure may create a problem in the future.

One recourse would be wider applications as currency by the entrance of retail giants such as Amazon. Another is that Hope that the market would continue in its ductility over time.

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December 09, 2017, 02:11:13 PM
 #12

If an asset is overvalued than its original value,then its termed as a bubble.I don't think that bitcoin is overvalued.

On one hand, this conversation between Andreas Antonopoulos and Joe Rogan can easily make someone bullish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuoE5CXlIdY because Andreas emphasized the advantages in terms of privacy of having a decentralized digital global currency that is not owned by a nation or a company.

On the other hand, Max Reiser's mostly foolish arguments makes me bearish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IuXhlIbTVE : he mostly arbitrary choses that the price will be stable a bit before 100 K$ but if the price is stagnant for years, most people that bought to make a $ gain will sell because the best current use of bitcoin and the biggest reason why people buy and hold bitcoin will not be there anymore : keeping it to enjoy fiat currency gains. More people everyday are buying it for fear of missing on future gains and people who have it mostly keep their holding for even larger gains.

The more Bitcoin can be used to buy things, the more reason the price has not to come down. Bitcoin is very useful to hide value, keep it private and transfer it without being blocked by frontiers or government laws which is a great reason to have it for a lot of people, especially those being in countries where the bank system is bad or almost non existant and where the government is openly bad. But there are good alternatives to Bitcoin : Cash is still here, Gold, the Swiss Franc and other crypto such as BCH.

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December 10, 2017, 08:54:52 AM
 #13

I absolutely love the fact that every-time bitcoin has a spike there are droves of people rushing to the forums to try and be the "I told you so"-guy. These are the panic-sellers, the queasy long-term holders; For some reason even being privy to the history off bitcoins price and the repetitive pattern of these scared people being consistently incorrect and those same people being the ones to miss out on the second, third and fourth spikes.

I say, bitcoin is probably not a short-term bubble, because we've been through this dozens of times over the past years and it always turns out the same. It seems like the only thing that any of these people claiming it is a bubble have for evidence that it's going to "pop", is just simply that the price is too high, or a couple investors are going to exit; this is flimsy at best, and it's taught me that some people just won't believe what's in front of their face until it's too late.

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December 10, 2017, 09:03:00 AM
 #14

Look at the last price run, i will say also bitcoin as bubble.
In other case, bubble is not always bad. Just depending how we take the advantage from the price run.
People believe in bitcoin price correction and stay holding is better for the price stability then.
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December 11, 2017, 05:25:23 AM
 #15

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

I don't agree. What if this bubble never pops because stores will start accepting it and you'll be able to turn your profits directly into goods without the need of exchanges?
Internet was also called a bubble back in the day.

Yes it was a called a bubble (overpriced probably is a better term) and for a good reason because it eventually poped (prices declined sharply)
but that does not mean to say nothing good came out of this ... because internet was certainly an innovation ....
all this money coming into bitcoin and altcoins are giving the necessary money to make progress in the field

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December 11, 2017, 07:30:46 PM
 #16

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

I don't agree. What if this bubble never pops because stores will start accepting it and you'll be able to turn your profits directly into goods without the need of exchanges?
Internet was also called a bubble back in the day.

Yes it was a called a bubble (overpriced probably is a better term) and for a good reason because it eventually poped (prices declined sharply)
but that does not mean to say nothing good came out of this ... because internet was certainly an innovation ....
all this money coming into bitcoin and altcoins are giving the necessary money to make progress in the field


Most will agree it's likely we see a major correction within the next 2 years. Bitcoin has a lot of merit and strong believers but it needs to have a use AND it needs to beat the competition, neither are a given at this time.

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December 14, 2017, 05:23:30 AM
 #17

its probably a bubble but as long as the holders don't panic and sell all they have it will still grow
because of all the publicity the more it goes up the more people want to get in and not miss the uptrend

I don't agree. What if this bubble never pops because stores will start accepting it and you'll be able to turn your profits directly into goods without the need of exchanges?
Internet was also called a bubble back in the day.

Yes it was a called a bubble (overpriced probably is a better term) and for a good reason because it eventually poped (prices declined sharply)
but that does not mean to say nothing good came out of this ... because internet was certainly an innovation ....
all this money coming into bitcoin and altcoins are giving the necessary money to make progress in the field


Most will agree it's likely we see a major correction within the next 2 years. Bitcoin has a lot of merit and strong believers but it needs to have a use AND it needs to beat the competition, neither are a given at this time.
I don’t think so that bit coin is a short term bubble it’s all depends upon the holding. There are two factors effect in bit coin which is profit and loss. It also depends on your Investment that you are investing for a short term or a long term.

These things are effect the value of bit coin. Even its long term or short term. The mode of investment does not matter, what matters is that bitcoin always generates profit.

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December 14, 2017, 05:32:46 AM
 #18

Bitcoin become a currency that's for sure. But to call him a bubble too. Look at the growth in stock prices of companies that produce equipment for the miners. A contribution of bitcoin in the real economy. This is only the beginning. Let's assume Elon Musk will sell Tesla its only for bitcoins. He loves to shock the audience. Then there will be the opportunity to invest in bitcoins, Tesla's shares. I'm sure if the opportunity to profit from investing in bitcoin it will attract many investors. You are too hasty to call bitcoin a bubble.
What do you mean about becoming a currency? Like for real world currency? Haha wouldnt think about it too much your opinion is just absurd. Bitcoin becoming a currency means regulating every piece of it and putting rules to it. We users that earn independently would be offended by this statement. Your thoughts are impossible cause we dont even know who is the real creator of this bitcoin. Satoshi nakamoto was just an alias.
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December 14, 2017, 05:58:23 AM
 #19

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

I remember a time when 1 bitcoin was worth around $12. I earned 0.01 btc through faucets. A user on this forum named Otoh gave me 0.09 so that I could have 0.1 btc. (I still intend to pay him back for that someday, btw) Having seen bitcoin at $10-$12, it would be very easy to assume bitcoin was a bubble @ $200.

There's no doubt that bitcoin was $200 not long ago. The question as to whether bitcoin is a bubble may revolve around whether bitcoin was severely undervalued when it was priced @ $200. If btc was significantly undervalued (which it may have been) recent price gains could be sustainable.

There can be significant lag time between fundamental growth and actual price movements.

Bitcoin's high before $200 was $1,000+. It dropped from $1,000+ down to $200, if I'm remembering right. This could be evidence that bitcoin was severely undervalued @ $200. Its real value might have been more than $1,000.
most miners were operating at a loss when bitcoin was around $200, It was definitely undervalued. Not worth 1k, because that was certainly overvalued in jan 2014. But I think its safe to say that between jan 2014 and jan 2017 bitcoin was worth 1k, and that in jan 2017 $1k bitcoin was still undervalued.

$1k will never be seen again. a flash crash at the bottom of the next trough might dip to 2k, but I don't expect to see stable prices below 3k ever again. It's very likely that we could stay above $5k.
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December 14, 2017, 04:35:22 PM
 #20

I would like to tell you my opinion about the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.

One of the most common comments that we heard nowadays is the bitcoin is a balloon or not. The best answer to people who see bitcoin as a balloon is investors who invest with bitcoin. Many big companies are trading with it. Overtime we will see which one is right.

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