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Author Topic: When US debt ceiling is lifted . . .  (Read 4721 times)
d3wo
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June 29, 2011, 10:39:34 AM
 #1

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

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June 29, 2011, 10:50:01 AM
 #2

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

I dont think you meant to say that a country stores USD as their GDP. GPD is the measure of economic activity.

I think that all the countries know that the debt ceiling will be lifted and are ready for it or even have arranged some deal with the USA. F.e. at the begginning of the crisis the Federal Reserve bought a lot of the Freddie and Fannie debt from overseas (specially from China), and curiously enough China kept buying USA gov debt.
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June 29, 2011, 10:52:49 AM
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When the debt ceiling is lifted everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and life will continue as usual.  (The debt ceiling is one of those things that seems good on paper but which in practice serves only for political grandstanding and theatrics.)
d3wo
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June 29, 2011, 11:07:54 AM
 #4

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

I dont think you meant to say that a country stores USD as their GDP. GPD is the measure of economic activity.

I think that all the countries know that the debt ceiling will be lifted and are ready for it or even have arranged some deal with the USA. F.e. at the begginning of the crisis the Federal Reserve bought a lot of the Freddie and Fannie debt from overseas (specially from China), and curiously enough China kept buying USA gov debt.

Is that works somewhat like credit cards ? Like paying interest ?
If it's works like credit cards, then is not good for US citizen.
So US citizen paying more taxes to pay the interest ?

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June 29, 2011, 11:10:18 AM
 #5

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

Absolutely nothing will change.  The debt limit is raised every few years with the party in power claiming cats and dogs and assorted ocelots will rain down if it's not lifted, while the party without power claims the other is totally reckless and irresponsible.  A few years later the two parties swap positions and go at it again.  No one is dumb enough on either side of the political divide to risk default over a few political sticking points.

If both political parties suffer from a bout of insanity and refuse to agree on the new debt limit, bitcoin's value will plummet.  It's a pure speculative commodity (not currency) that has no impact upon 99.999% of the world's population.  Ask a villager in India whether they would prefer a bitcoin or gram of gold.  Ask a Chinese businessman the same question.  I bet a Greek factory worker would give the very same answer.

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sortedmush
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June 29, 2011, 11:12:38 AM
 #6

Is that works somewhat like credit cards ? Like paying interest ?
If it's works like credit cards, then is not good for US citizen.
So US citizen paying more taxes to pay the interest ?

It's worse than that. Check this out for a brief outline: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozbKt8HS8mU
nosfera2
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June 29, 2011, 11:14:56 AM
 #7

So US citizen paying more taxes to pay the interest ?

The US government prints more dollars to pay for the interest, the value of the dollar goes down and the US citizens pays more for everything they buy. That's how it works.  Until one day the dollar is so weak that it crashes and becomes worthless because no one will want it any more. The only reason the dollar is not much worse off right now is that the Euro is on shaky ground too.
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June 29, 2011, 01:18:39 PM
 #8

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

Absolutely nothing will change.  The debt limit is raised every few years with the party in power claiming cats and dogs and assorted ocelots will rain down if it's not lifted, while the party without power claims the other is totally reckless and irresponsible.  A few years later the two parties swap positions and go at it again.  No one is dumb enough on either side of the political divide to risk default over a few political sticking points.

If both political parties suffer from a bout of insanity and refuse to agree on the new debt limit, bitcoin's value will plummet.  It's a pure speculative commodity (not currency) that has no impact upon 99.999% of the world's population.  Ask a villager in India whether they would prefer a bitcoin or gram of gold.  Ask a Chinese businessman the same question.  I bet a Greek factory worker would give the very same answer.

There will be indirect effects. I am sure after awhile people eventually figure out something is going down. Especially when the debt ceiling keeps getting raised and people's cost of living keeps going up. Plus these days the main stream media openly admits that when the debt ceiling is lifted it means more money is being printed.


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d3wo
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June 29, 2011, 04:09:02 PM
 #9

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

Absolutely nothing will change.  The debt limit is raised every few years with the party in power claiming cats and dogs and assorted ocelots will rain down if it's not lifted, while the party without power claims the other is totally reckless and irresponsible.  A few years later the two parties swap positions and go at it again.  No one is dumb enough on either side of the political divide to risk default over a few political sticking points.

If both political parties suffer from a bout of insanity and refuse to agree on the new debt limit, bitcoin's value will plummet.  It's a pure speculative commodity (not currency) that has no impact upon 99.999% of the world's population.  Ask a villager in India whether they would prefer a bitcoin or gram of gold.  Ask a Chinese businessman the same question.  I bet a Greek factory worker would give the very same answer.

Quote
Absolutely nothing will change.
I think you are Absolutely wrong.
This is USA who's gonna lifting debt limits, not zimbabwe.
Perhaps somehow its gonna effecting some factor, maybe "trust" ?

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June 29, 2011, 04:25:47 PM
 #10

the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..
GideonGono
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June 29, 2011, 07:42:17 PM
 #11

- What is gonna happen to those country who stored USD as their GDP ?
Is this gonna make BTC value doubled/tripled because of usd value dive ?
What do you guys think ?

Absolutely nothing will change.  The debt limit is raised every few years with the party in power claiming cats and dogs and assorted ocelots will rain down if it's not lifted, while the party without power claims the other is totally reckless and irresponsible.  A few years later the two parties swap positions and go at it again.  No one is dumb enough on either side of the political divide to risk default over a few political sticking points.

If both political parties suffer from a bout of insanity and refuse to agree on the new debt limit, bitcoin's value will plummet.  It's a pure speculative commodity (not currency) that has no impact upon 99.999% of the world's population.  Ask a villager in India whether they would prefer a bitcoin or gram of gold.  Ask a Chinese businessman the same question.  I bet a Greek factory worker would give the very same answer.

Quote
Absolutely nothing will change.
I think you are Absolutely wrong.
This is USA who's gonna lifting debt limits, not zimbabwe.
Perhaps somehow its gonna effecting some factor, maybe "trust" ?

I was unaware that the USA is exempt from the laws of economic because it is "not zimbabwe"

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June 29, 2011, 08:13:20 PM
 #12

the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..

Tell that to the retired in another 10 years, after the social security and medicare system that they were taxed to pay into for their entire working lives is ended because there is no money in the trusts.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
serchanto
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June 30, 2011, 10:48:17 PM
 #13

the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..

Never say never (or always). Smiley

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July 01, 2011, 01:57:48 AM
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the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..

You're right on the second half, I don't think the US will default.

But to say the US$ is a stable investment is ridiculous.

Lets say I sell you 100 "Clinton Credits" for $10 each. Then you loan me 100 "Clinton Credits", with the expectation I pay you back 110 "Clinton Credits" at the end of the year.

Meanwhile, during the year, I redefine "Clinton Credits" so they're only worth $1 each.

I pay you back your 110 "Clinton Credits" at the end of the year, which you can then trade in for an 89% loss.

This is not a stable investment.

A promise to get repaid in fiat currency isn't really a promise if the lender controls the value of it. The only thing you can be sure of is that if you get paid back rubbish money everyone else will.

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July 02, 2011, 03:35:58 AM
 #15

the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..
"past results do not guarantee future performance"

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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July 02, 2011, 08:16:50 PM
 #16

Nothing changes, it just moves the inevitable. One day our current system will crash. As I don't live in USA, I don't belive it would be any different from past. Effects of the crash are just much larger.

Either default or hyperinflation... Or both...

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bitbetter
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July 02, 2011, 09:35:53 PM
 #17

the USD will always be a stable investment because we PAY BACK..

You're right on the second half, I don't think the US will default.

But to say the US$ is a stable investment is ridiculous.

Lets say I sell you 100 "Clinton Credits" for $10 each. Then you loan me 100 "Clinton Credits", with the expectation I pay you back 110 "Clinton Credits" at the end of the year.

Meanwhile, during the year, I redefine "Clinton Credits" so they're only worth $1 each.

I pay you back your 110 "Clinton Credits" at the end of the year, which you can then trade in for an 89% loss.

This is not a stable investment.

A promise to get repaid in fiat currency isn't really a promise if the lender controls the value of it. The only thing you can be sure of is that if you get paid back rubbish money everyone else will.



Do I have to mine for Clinton Credits? I want some.

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billyjoeallen
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July 02, 2011, 10:40:20 PM
 #18

When the debt ceiling is lifted everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and life will continue as usual.  (The debt ceiling is one of those things that seems good on paper but which in practice serves only for political grandstanding and theatrics.)


The usual isn't usual. You are suffering from normalcy bias if you think the usual is sustainable. the real debt ceiling is reached when the creditors don't want to lend any more money. That day is approaching.

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July 03, 2011, 05:59:53 AM
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It's worse for everybody if the US misses even one debt payment.

Whenever a country has done this, their currency crashes.

Defaulting is our fast track way to be Zimbabwe.

If you think a little inflation from more debt is worse, you're crazy. Look at prices from the 70s, 80s, and 90s. The change in nominal prices isn't really what is worse now compared to then. That much is business as usual going back a century now.

A little inflation privileges the now(current production aka people living and doing stuff now) over the past (aka debts of the past).

The USA just needs to stop being Mr Nice Guy aka everybody's bitch, and start playing the game the way we used to play, because that's how everybody else plays now. We forgot about it and got caught up in crazy dreams like 'globalization' and other BS.

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bitbetter
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July 03, 2011, 01:38:47 PM
 #20

When the debt ceiling is lifted everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and life will continue as usual.  (The debt ceiling is one of those things that seems good on paper but which in practice serves only for political grandstanding and theatrics.)


The usual isn't usual. You are suffering from normalcy bias if you think the usual is sustainable. the real debt ceiling is reached when the creditors don't want to lend any more money. That day is approaching.

But why would creditors stop lending money? That's their business. Despite the risks, there will always be someone to make money off of giving someone else money. If you're running a business, you don't stop selling your product and expect to make money. Personally--I feel like the debt ceiling is reached when nobody has any money to buy MORE credit. However--I agree, we are left with two options that really don't lead to sustainability whatsoever. We can't keep afloat based on the idea that it doesn't matter.

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