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重磅!白银市场恐将上演一场逼空大戏
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Topic: 重磅!白银市场恐将上演一场逼空大戏 (Read 75 times)
yxo493
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重磅!白银市场恐将上演一场逼空大戏
November 21, 2017, 08:07:32 AM
#1
全球顶级白银分析师Theodore Butler给白银多头带来了一个巨大的好消息。
Butler是研究白银期货交易的顶尖专家,以下是他的主要观点:
多年来,白银市场大的买家和卖家是技术型对冲基金,而像摩根大通这样的大型投行通常作为他们的对手方。这些技术型对冲基金一般在价格上涨时做多、下跌时做空,并且根据市场价格调整头寸。
但在过去三年,出现了一种新型对冲基金,Butler称之为核心非技术型基金,他们不交易,只买入并持有。从2013年-2015年期间,他们一共积累了4万手白银期货合约,近期增加到了6万手,大约3亿盎司白银长期多仓。
这些多头头寸的持有者利用期货作为白银投资工具等待银价走高。
除了以上这类白银多头主力,还有一些小型投资者,他们的头寸在2万手,这样总的白银长期多头仓位达到了4亿盎司。
Butler写道,“将这些长期投资者持有的这4亿盎司白银与目前全球现存的白银以及通过生产可以获得的白银数量进行比较,发现这些数字并不匹配。
4亿盎司白银大约占全球白银总量的25%或者50%的可开采部分,而每年的白银产量不到1亿盎司,因此没有足够的实物白银可以兑付COMEX白银期货上长期多头仓位。”
既然全球白银总量无法支撑起COMEX白银核心多头持仓,那么是谁在支撑呢?
答案是COMEX八大空头玩家。
据CFTC最新的白银持仓数据显示,八大交易商一共持有了93283手白银净空头,大约等于4.65亿盎司白银。
这八大空头中,没有一家是矿业公司,除了摩根大通是因套保而持有空头仓位外,其余均为投机性做空白银,一共持有大约7万手白银核心空头头寸。如果考虑到所有空头参与者的头寸,COMEX白银空头的总持仓达到了7.5-8亿盎司。
这样就形成了白银市场多空之间的对峙。
但是一个对空头非常不利的因素是,COMEX白银交付压力很可能来自工业领域的买家,因实物白银短缺,这将导致交付高峰或者逼空的到来。
银价每涨10美元,这七大空头(除了摩根大通)将损失35亿美元。如果白银价格强劲上涨,空头将很快抵挡不住而被迫平掉空头仓位,这将引发价格继续上涨,并造成投资者争夺实物白银。
Overdoom
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Re: 重磅!白银市场恐将上演一场逼空大戏
November 21, 2017, 09:06:45 AM
#2
白银其实有可观的升值能力,因为金价已经暴涨过很多回了.
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