Rs 55-60/$ is a 10% move over weeks.
costly rupee good for importers, they will have to pay less for usd and if usd cost less they can buy more and import more. that way local manufactures have to compete with cheap import, bad for economy. Cheap rupee good for exporters, exporters usd will generate more in INR. Good for exporters bad for economy too, overheating. At present scenario there is no good choices. Cheap rupees good for IT for exporters and real estate which depends on IT revenues. But that is worst scenario for country, from higher ground it will be harder to fall.
Faster growth faster it will hit the wall. And wall is there waiting. What is interesting to know for me personally, what is indicators and what is time when this bubble will collapse, what is recovery scenario, which sector of economy will lead to recovery, what time recovery will take.
Many businessman in India understand this trend, if local businesses got sold and moving abroad, what to expect from foreign investments, nothing. In situation like this consulting based on System Dynamics programs like Stella can give very valuable decision taking tool for large corporations. If somebody looking to start such consulting and have experience in SD and Stella I will be interested to look into business opportunity in this area.
One example. 7 years ago Mittal acquired Arcelor paid euro 26.5 billion. Now no body need steel in Europe, because nobody buys cars in Europe. Plant is closed workers, rioting on streets. 7 years ago for me personally it was clear, it is BAD business decision. I doubt Mittal even recovered this 26.5 billion. Not counting for bribes he paid to politicians.
Most of this troubles rooted in sick financial system ect. If we can show big businesses on very scientific way by using SD as a tool, that there is alternative in form of bitcoins existed, be sure big money will come to bitcoins. All regulatory issues will be solved. Because business will do what ever it takes to survice. Smart people selling now businesses bringing a lot of profit and moving abroad. Not so smart buying and they need our help, because few years latet max 2 years, same as Mittal they will be closing and nobody will want to buy their factories. Instead of closing down in few years from now, they can start building up and form alliances now on new more reliable monetary platform. As we can see that regulatory issues can be solved very simple, Germany example.
