It is not a bubble

[freightjoe]

"It is not a bubble" is what we hear every time from people invested in an asset hoping it will make them rich.



Before the dotcom bubble burst, dotcom shares were not a bubble said the people investing in shares. It can only go up they said. NASDAQ is going to the moon and will reach 100.000. They said. And then they lost.



Before the housing price bubble burst, house prices were not a bubble said people who were borrowing more and more money. It can only go up they said, because there will never be more land. They said. And then they lost.


It is so predictable that it is sad.

[mOgliE]

What you say is true..

And it is also actually sad because things are bouncing back. Banks are entitled to make whatever investment they wish and housing prices are not bind (wheter up or down).

But I guess that you think the same about the bitcoin, right? The difference here is that there are technical and computational limits that cannot be ignored by people, even though they are rich, influencial, powerful or the 3 at a time. I do not say that bitcoin can make everybody rich, but I sincerely think that it is the safest place for bet and trading that we currently have.

[freightjoe]

but I sincerely think that it is the safest place for bet and trading that we currently have.

Why do you think that?

In the housing bubble, at least there was a lower limit to the drop because there was a physical asset (the house and land) to stop the drop in value

In the dotcom bubble, at least there was a lower limit to the drop because there were companies actually providing goods or services to stop the drop in value

In the Bitcoin bubble there is ..... nothing......

[100kk]

Many people also think about it and do not rule out such an outcome. It will be a tragedy for the followers of cryptocurrency if this happens.

[richlipkin]

OP: So when did you sell your BTC? 2k? 3k?

Sounds like someone is salty that the value is now high and rising.

The old adage goes, "a bubble is a bull market you don't have a position in."

[freightjoe]

OP: So when did you sell your BTC? 2k? 3k?

Sounds like someone is salty that the value is now high and rising.

The old adage goes, "a bubble is a bull market you don't have a position in."

The same as we always see in a bubble - those who are in it will stop at nothing to make excuses to delude themselves into why it is not a bubble.

[secondgarlic]

Calling it a bubble is fearmongering at this stage, in my opinion. The price is volatile, yes, but it is not even close to the dot com bubble. Back then, everyone was investing in tech company stocks because the idea was that they couldn't fail whatever happened. But that's not the case for cryptocurrency, just look at altcoins, there are a lot of them which do not even take off.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not ruling out the eventual possibility of a bubble, but I don't see its indicators right now.

[TheQuin]

In the dotcom bubble, at least there was a lower limit to the drop because there were companies actually providing goods or services to stop the drop in value

That's not entirely true as many of the dotcom bubble companies went bankrupt and no longer exist so their share value did indeed go to zero. What was left were the successful ones that are now some of the largest and most profitable companies on the planet.

This might well be a bubble but it is one that has barely started. The dotcom bubble was measured in the trillions while cryptocurrencies are still in the billions. Less than 5 million people out of a world population of 7.6 billion have a cryptocurrency wallet. There will be an inevitable bursting of the bubble, these things tend to do many repetitions. We've already seen busts back in 2012 and 2013, each time it came back stronger. How many more times will it do it? When will become a mature market like the Nasdaq? Who knows, but I think quite a few years yet.

[freightjoe]

Back then, everyone was investing in tech company stocks because the idea was that they couldn't fail whatever happened. But that's not the case for cryptocurrency, just look at altcoins, there are a lot of them which do not even take off.

But then it is exactly the same - all the religious followers of Bitcoin are all saying exactly that: "Bitcoin cannot fail no matter what happens. Just hodl".

[talkbitcoin]

you have been calling bitcoin a bubble for a long time, and each time you come here and call it a bubble for the past who knows how many years, the price keeps on rising. the thing about a bubble is that a bubble doesn't last many years! they shape up fast and burst suddenly. and the way up is not accompanied by any major corrections like the 20%-30% drops we had. that is contradicting what you have been trying to say here.

[tomforgery]

Many say it is a bubble because price change fast and most was thinking it will crash but till now price increase and many trusted companies trust in it make it a big chance to invest it

[freightjoe]

This might well be a bubble but it is one that has barely started. The dotcom bubble was measured in the trillions while cryptocurrencies are still in the billions.

Going by that argument - 1.7 trillion was lost in the dotcom bubble. Bitcoins market cap is now about 1/10 of that. Wit the growth we are seeing in Bitcoin, we will reach that level in less a year. Poof, bubble bursts.

[Dendy69]

Bitcoin and other coins are bubble. Look at that temper of growth. Look at exponent growth. It can't be "natural". It is absolutely speculative. And also crypto is stiil not secured by anything phisical. What is the base of bitcoin? Code. Blockchain technology. That's all. So it is a bubble

[paolo099]

well, as history taught us that nothing is too big to fail, BTC is not immune and can happen in this crypto world as well but this is a bit catastrophic point of view.
Am i a believer? yes but i don't consider BTC a religion, for me it's an amazing project who's still going strong with an huge support by the community, despites all the fuds going around (like most of your topics), don't take it personally but like somebody said in this topic, it seems you are just salty because BTC is not yet dead.
Will it die? for sure but for me it will be replaced with something different because the technology behind to run it it's already there.
If it's a bubble i guess it will last longer than us but for now, the price is still growing and that's a fact.

[TheQuin]

Going by that argument - 1.7 trillion was lost in the dotcom bubble. Bitcoins market cap is now about 1/10 of that. Wit the growth we are seeing in Bitcoin, we will reach that level in less a year. Poof, bubble bursts.

You must be looking at the market cap of the composite index rather than everything on the Nasdaq exchange which at last nights close was $8.13 Trillion.

[freightjoe]

Going by that argument - 1.7 trillion was lost in the dotcom bubble. Bitcoins market cap is now about 1/10 of that. Wit the growth we are seeing in Bitcoin, we will reach that level in less a year. Poof, bubble bursts.

You must be looking at the market cap of the composite index rather than everything on the Nasdaq exchange which at last nights close was $8.13 Trillion.

1.7 trillion was lost when the nasdaq crashed in the dotcom bubble

[TheQuin]

1.7 trillion was lost when the nasdaq crashed in the dotcom bubble

I didn't dispute that. I also don't dispute that one day a similar amount may be lost in crypto. I'm pointing out that Nasdaq recovered that $1.7 Trillion loss and is now valued at $8.13 trillion. Bitcoin and crypto have been through boom and bust cycles already, more will follow but that will not be the end.

[freightjoe]

1.7 trillion was lost when the nasdaq crashed in the dotcom bubble

I didn't dispute that. I also don't dispute that one day a similar amount may be lost in crypto. I'm pointing out that Nasdaq recovered that $1.7 Trillion loss and is now valued at $8.13 trillion. Bitcoin and crypto have been through boom and bust cycles already, more will follow but that will not be the end.

NASDAQ took more than 15 years to recover - many cannot wait for 15 years to get their money back

[garytheasshole]

1.7 trillion was lost when the nasdaq crashed in the dotcom bubble

I didn't dispute that. I also don't dispute that one day a similar amount may be lost in crypto. I'm pointing out that Nasdaq recovered that $1.7 Trillion loss and is now valued at $8.13 trillion. Bitcoin and crypto have been through boom and bust cycles already, more will follow but that will not be the end.

Crypto has multiple bubbles, it's a bubble inside a bubble next to other bubbles.

[TheQuin]

NASDAQ took more than 15 years to recover - many cannot wait for 15 years to get their money back

Indeed those that don't time their buying and selling well will get hurt. That's the nature of getting involved in markets.

Crypto has multiple bubbles, it's a bubble inside a bubble next to other bubbles.

That's exactly it, each one bigger than the last. We don't yet know how many more times this will happen before the market matures. At the moment this is still a market dominated by a few early adopters and enthusiasts so I think it's got a long way to go yet.