I think the real problem is whether BFL will run out of cash before shipping all the devices owed to customers. It seems they are using pre-order funds for R&D, therefore they may not have enough funds left to ship to all the customers.
This isn't a real concern. They start shipping at reasonable levels, they will NOT have cash flow problems. They won't have to even begin to clear the backlog. If they shipped 1000 units in a week, enough people would jump on the bandwagon to cover shipping with ease.
of course the odds of them doing that don't look to hot..
Unless they can't make enough money per unit to pay cost of goods, salaries, rent, etc. They are getting their chips in low quantities which means they are using what is called a Multi-project wafer (MPW). That means the chips are anywhere from $40 to $80 a piece. They originally planned on putting one chip per Jalapeno, but now they have to put 2 per Jalapeno. The chips are easily the most expensive part of the device.
They have to make 60,000 devices and that will cost them at least $6 million, probably more like $12-18 million just to buy the parts for them.
In 2-3 months the Avalon based Klondike boards arrive and triple the mining difficulty. Can BFL get enough pre-orders in now to make enough product to matter?
