Doubts about 2018 Market cap and Price Predictions

[paranoyak]

First I am a beginner and I need an expert opinion.

Everyone knows from the january 2017 bitcoin price went up %900 . Only 2017 was really profitable when we look at the time chart.

And everyone thinks  that it will be the same in 2018. But it wouldnt be so easy?

Also market cap went up 130 billion$ in one year.

I looked at companies with highest market cap in Stock markets like nasdaq.

Also it took one year to achieve 100 billion market cap value for that companies.

But for 500-700 billion $ market cap, it took 4-5 years to get that point.

And İs it possible  for market cap to expanse 500 billion $ in one year ?

And it s correlated with price right?

[pat4cryptoreal]

The rapid increase in the marketcap is due to some activities this year. Because of the forks this year bitcoin have attracted attention and interest of so many people which also lead to so many people investing bitcoin.

[meer45]

The year 2017 may be an outlier for all we know. The interest in bitcoin rose rapidly and this was reflected in the tremendous amount of percentage-wise increase of the bitcoin price. Will it happen again? Nobody can say for sure.

Pretty much everyone agrees that the trend will continue to rise, however not as sharply as it did in 2017. But, since established financial institutions are starting to realize the potential of bitcoin, market cap may experience a significant rise once again. So to summarize, an increase is definitely expected, but currently it seems difficult for the increase in 2018 to match the performance in 2017.

[Zarbout]

I think  this year is exceptional for all crypto market. I expect bitcoin to keep growing next year but it's hard to increase 900% again with price already high.

[joinfree]

Obviously that it is possible, but the only thing to achieve that is if people really decide to put all their funds in to bitcoin, and that is rarely going to happen because most people is only focused in earning more and more money, not on risking their money.

But bitcoin needs to be a normal currency in order to see more interest from the people, if some governments start to say that bitcoin is a really good currency and that it can be used by some many ways, it can really get more interest, and this will make people feel more confident and of course that the marketcap will increase by billions in just matter of time.

The marketcap increased by more than ten millions between yesterday and today (just a reminder).

[Vannie12]

Eventually, this year is another legendary time for bitcoin. Too many struggles but continuously brought up by different contributions. As being discussed, forks attracted many investors despite of the ban in China. Adapted be Japan as seems to be trusted by more of the investors against new coins specifically Bitcoincash.
But thinking that the fast pumps leads to doubts about bitcoin bubble. Bitcoin needs to show how it can function well as a currency by projects that are realistic to not just attract users but make the users feel that it is actually useful.

[iluvpie60]

First I am a beginner and I need an expert opinion.

Everyone knows from the january 2017 bitcoin price went up %900 . Only 2017 was really profitable when we look at the time chart.

And everyone thinks  that it will be the same in 2018. But it wouldnt be so easy?

Also market cap went up 130 billion$ in one year.

I looked at companies with highest market cap in Stock markets like nasdaq.

Also it took one year to achieve 100 billion market cap value for that companies.

But for 500-700 billion $ market cap, it took 4-5 years to get that point.

And İs it possible  for market cap to expanse 500 billion $ in one year ?

And it s correlated with price right?

You need to keep in mind that the marketcap doesn't exactly connect directly with the volume. Lots of volume is done on exchanges which does not show up in the blockchain transactions itself.

The marketcap isn't as useful at seeing how used it is compared to the actual volume. Which I am not sure if there even is a place that shows it all under one spot except for maybe coinmarketcap.com.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

[hiVe]

It is very hard to market cap can increase 5 times after 1 year. It needs 3 years at least to get that target

[Alns]

The marketcap increased by more of five times during this year, i dont see it impossible to reach more than x5 during the next year.
Bitcoin has increased a lot, and it means that the attention that it is getting is increasing too, i dont think that it will take years to reach more than $20k, because it is pretty close to us right now, it is just x2 and a few more thousands of the actual price to reach that sum.

And a x5 of the total marketcap is not a big deal, it can be easily reached if a lot of people start investing now, and everyday the marketcap is increasing everytime more.
It increased by more than 25% since the middle of october.

[BrewMaster]

Everyone knows from the january 2017 bitcoin price went up %900 . Only 2017 was really profitable when we look at the time chart.
And everyone thinks  that it will be the same in 2018. But it wouldnt be so easy?

the adoption stages are like this. they are slow at first then they keep speeding up. it becomes faster and faster until it can even reach a nearly vertical state.
right now we are in first stages where it has revved up a little. this can continue for a while.

Also market cap went up 130 billion$ in one year.
I looked at companies with highest market cap in Stock markets like nasdaq.

market capitalization is a false factor for cryptocurrencies and in my opinion it should not even be used let alone used for comparison among themselves or used to compare them with a company.

it is a term which is *falsely imported* from stocks market into crypto market.

[btcone111]

Everyone knows from the january 2017 bitcoin price went up %900 . Only 2017 was really profitable when we look at the time chart.
And everyone thinks  that it will be the same in 2018. But it wouldnt be so easy?

the adoption stages are like this. they are slow at first then they keep speeding up. it becomes faster and faster until it can even reach a nearly vertical state.
right now we are in first stages where it has revved up a little. this can continue for a while.

Also market cap went up 130 billion$ in one year.
I looked at companies with highest market cap in Stock markets like nasdaq.

market capitalization is a false factor for cryptocurrencies and in my opinion it should not even be used let alone used for comparison among themselves or used to compare them with a company.

it is a term which is *falsely imported* from stocks market into crypto market.

Your phrase is slightly worrying - that reminds me of a bubble that will eventually burst and "kill" a lot of people.
Anything that went up vertically, historically, came down vertically.

[Kemarit]

First I am a beginner and I need an expert opinion.

Everyone knows from the january 2017 bitcoin price went up %900 . Only 2017 was really profitable when we look at the time chart.

And everyone thinks  that it will be the same in 2018. But it wouldnt be so easy?

Also market cap went up 130 billion$ in one year.

I looked at companies with highest market cap in Stock markets like nasdaq.

Also it took one year to achieve 100 billion market cap value for that companies.

But for 500-700 billion $ market cap, it took 4-5 years to get that point.

And İs it possible  for market cap to expanse 500 billion $ in one year ?

And it s correlated with price right?

2017 is truly astonishing year for bitcoin with more than 800% increased alone, one must think if this can carried over to the next year. But your question is whether we can achieved it again? My thought is that we will still continue to see a surge of bitcoin price, but I don't know if we can hit that kind of increase. My conservative estimate is maybe around 200%, but if we can hit it on the first or second quarter of 2018, then its pretty obvious that we are in the road for another good year. And it boils down how bitcoin demand's should be next year, how many new investors are willing to enter the market. Again, we can't really compare bitcoin to the marketcap of companies, like Apple and Microsoft capitalization. its like comparing apples and oranges.

[machinek20]

The one that determine the rising is the users, in 2017 bitcoin fame is increasing and only small part of country that legalized bitcoin, in 2018 there are still so many sectors, like big company, ecommerce and other country that is possible to adapt bitcoin, I see there is a chance that the rising still going to be huge

[Netnox]

You can't compare equities with crypto-currencies and use the past equity price change to predict the future crypto prices. The equity price is not solely dependent upon the supply-demand equilibrium. Other factors also play a part, such as the strength of the national currency, foreign relations, level of federal debt.etc. But with Bitcoins, it solely depends on demand.

[bambazamba]

Market-cap of Bitcoin went very high and it was witnessed by all of us . If the market cap doubles in the year to come it would not be a big surprise . It is quite expected to happen . But for bitcoin to expand upto $500 billion can be a very difficult goal to attain at least in one year . If this goal was for 5-6 years , it could've been possible but not for the year to come . Attaining this goal might not be a difficult task if more and more funds are raised on bitcoin by people and the active participation increase . But still a major percentage of world don't know  a thing about bitcoin , so getting such huge fund raising might get very difficult for now.                                     

[Oceat]

You can't compare equities with crypto-currencies and use the past equity price change to predict the future crypto prices. The equity price is not solely dependent upon the supply-demand equilibrium. Other factors also play a part, such as the strength of the national currency, foreign relations, level of federal debt.etc. But with Bitcoins, it solely depends on demand.

This might be the accurate answer for this topic because bitcoin is working only due to its demand. We users are pushing it to go higher and higher even if there's a fluctuation the price range is amazingly high when a fork occurs. Bitcoin is expanding slowly but surely even if other countries didn't legalize it yet maybe sooner or later it will be and we can't stop the rising number of users to support bitcoin.

[hahahafr]

Well the marketcap increased by more than 40% during the last month, so i would not think that it is impossible to reach a higer marketcap because it is really increasing right now.

There are about five billion dollars everyday who are being invested in different crytocurrencies, it means that the total marketcap is increasing too.

What is stopping it to get to at least 1 trillion, or maybe a little bit more in just a year or a year and a half? I really trust in the whole system, and we are going to achieve those rates in less than two years, i am sure about it.
 

[DaMut]

We need to consider everything to make a move,which mean there'll be no more re-history in 2018ish.
in my view the biggest reason why would the price pumped so hard due to halving that happened in 2016ish,
the rewards decreased a half for each block,in order to keep the miners we need to push the price.
miners is the network itself,if we do not have them the transaction will be stop and we can not move our coin at all.
other than that we also heard about regulation for their exchanges in some countries,
and lastly we heard about listing in CME group's.
if we want to see something like this again,
we need to halve the rewards again in the future,which mean if everything is like before.
there'll be another move in 4 years later after the halving.

it's possible to see the market cap increase to 500 billions in a year,
because right now Bitcoin itself has not been used by many people and only around 1% peoples used this.
but it's very hard to achieve it at the moment because it has not ready yet.

[exstasie]

And İs it possible  for market cap to expanse 500 billion $ in one year ?

And it s correlated with price right?

It's definitely possible, mainly because of how little BTC is circulating on exchanges which dictate the price. I noticed that exchange order book supply dried up significantly in early 2017 just as it did in late 2013. Now, here we are, at $8700.

Given the amount of institutional money that's slated to enter the market, and how much mainstream attention Bitcoin has been getting for months on end, I don't think such an expansion is unreasonable at all. But one of the reasons that people doubt market cap as an indicator is that it doesn't account for mid term volatility very well. Remember, after the 2013 bull market, the price declined 80-90% before we formed another uptrend.

market capitalization is a false factor for cryptocurrencies and in my opinion it should not even be used let alone used for comparison among themselves or used to compare them with a company.

it is a term which is *falsely imported* from stocks market into crypto market.

Why is it applicable in stocks but not cryptocurrencies?

[ConnerM]

And it s correlated with price right?

There is no correlation what so ever between Bitcoin and the market capitalization or stock price history of a company. Bitcoin is not a company, it's a new kind of commodity that has never been valued before in the marketplace. The value of all the gold in circulation is around $7.8 Trillion. Imagine if all the gold in the world had been mined in just 8 years. How would the market value it as demand grew exponentially and it become adopted as a store of wealth? As a means of trade? As a vehicle to circumvent capital controls? With broad adoption, just as a world wide store of wealth, it could easily see a notional value in the Trillions. Unlike Gold, adoption and transfer of BitCoin can happen at an exponential rate. There is no reason why with a 10 fold increase in demand BTC could not increase another 10 fold next year. There is no reason why this increase could not initially occur due to pure speculation as often happens with startups that have a product or idea that offers the potential for a real paradigm shift in some market. All it would take is putting it on a major commodity exchange or allowing it to become a regular investment vehicle in markets, as an ETF for instance. Allow everyone to easily incorporate BTC into their IRA just like they can buy stocks or bands now on major world stock exchanges would create exponential additional demand. Look at the article about CoinBase adding 100,000 new accounts in the past week or so. And yet they still only have 13 Million accounts. What will BitCoin be when they have 130 Million accounts x all the other place to exchange, but, or sell? What happen when 100 Million people hold bitcoin? What about a Billion people? If BTC became as widely adopted and held as gold, one coin would be worth about $475,000.

I think we are all interested in BitCoin because we know these scenarios, however unlikely, can't be ignored as crazy or crackpot. The 'market cap' of BitCoin is only limited to the market cap of money itself.