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Author Topic: Suggestion to hypothetical portfolio scenario  (Read 121 times)
Stoukie
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November 23, 2017, 10:41:13 AM
 #1

Good day all,

I'm in two minds currently and need someone to soundboard my idea against, what better place than on this forum Cheesy

What would you have done if you were in the following situation, this is obviously all hypothetical.. I'm asking for a friend  Roll Eyes

About 3 months ago you bought a few alts, say XRP, OMG, TRIG, NEO... ABY, SC, NBT etc. Now 3 months ago BTC was around $3200, you bought without putting any stop losses on your investments (noob error I know, I'll tell my friend  Roll Eyes), today you log into your account, BTC is $8200 (more than double) and your alts have bled, bled badly. For example TRIG drop -300%, OMG drop by more than half of the price you bought ect.

The situation does not look that bleak really as the price of Bitcoin more than doubled, so even though your Bitcoin bag almost halved (quantity) the USD equivalent is still stable, meaning your investment in USD was $XYZ, it's still $XYZ, just a fraction less in value... If you withdraw now your initial investment would be save.

Now the reason you entered into alts and traded with BTC as a trading pair was to increase your BTC bag, buy alts low, sell alts high, take profit in means of BTC and thus increase your overall BTC bag (quantity).

Now at this point in time you have 2 options:

Option 1: HODL, hold your alts, ride out the wave, do not sell your alts until they at least break even of make a 5% profit (quantity). This is a long-term choice as it could take months if not years...

Option 2: Sell your alts now, take the BTC loss (quantity) while the alts are bleeding and the streets are running with blood.

Now Option 2 has a A and B section, Section A, reinvest your BTC in alts again while they are in the dip (yes possibly make the same mistake). Section B, keep you BTC in your wallet, with the fork coming in December BTC should just increase...

To hold you alts is the obvious answer (I think), but what if you are itching to trade... Itching to spin the weel again and hope for the best...

Your opinion is much appreciated Wink

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November 23, 2017, 11:15:35 AM
 #2

Try a market cap weighted index top 5 or 10. Indexes usually beat individual trading, but Bitcoin has been on a tear and is handily outperforming market so it might be harder but best to sit on your hands.

EXtremeAEX
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November 23, 2017, 11:36:07 AM
 #3

I would sell my alts to whatever I can to cut down my losses first, especially those with profits. Sell any coins that has low trading volume these few days, and have been constantly on the low. As for BTC, I suggest (to your friend) to hold them first since we all have no idea when it is going to rise.

I am one not to take risks, but if I were to try, I would buy alts when BTC prices are high, and sell alts when the price of them/BTC goes down. Trading is difficult and risky, hope your friend get lucky! Wink


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no0dlepunk
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November 23, 2017, 12:56:33 PM
 #4

Good day all,

I'm in two minds currently and need someone to soundboard my idea against, what better place than on this forum Cheesy

What would you have done if you were in the following situation, this is obviously all hypothetical.. I'm asking for a friend  Roll Eyes

About 3 months ago you bought a few alts, say XRP, OMG, TRIG, NEO... ABY, SC, NBT etc. Now 3 months ago BTC was around $3200, you bought without putting any stop losses on your investments (noob error I know, I'll tell my friend  Roll Eyes), today you log into your account, BTC is $8200 (more than double) and your alts have bled, bled badly. For example TRIG drop -300%, OMG drop by more than half of the price you bought ect.

The situation does not look that bleak really as the price of Bitcoin more than doubled, so even though your Bitcoin bag almost halved (quantity) the USD equivalent is still stable, meaning your investment in USD was $XYZ, it's still $XYZ, just a fraction less in value... If you withdraw now your initial investment would be save.

Now the reason you entered into alts and traded with BTC as a trading pair was to increase your BTC bag, buy alts low, sell alts high, take profit in means of BTC and thus increase your overall BTC bag (quantity).

Now at this point in time you have 2 options:

Option 1: HODL, hold your alts, ride out the wave, do not sell your alts until they at least break even of make a 5% profit (quantity). This is a long-term choice as it could take months if not years...

Option 2: Sell your alts now, take the BTC loss (quantity) while the alts are bleeding and the streets are running with blood.

Now Option 2 has a A and B section, Section A, reinvest your BTC in alts again while they are in the dip (yes possibly make the same mistake). Section B, keep you BTC in your wallet, with the fork coming in December BTC should just increase...

To hold you alts is the obvious answer (I think), but what if you are itching to trade... Itching to spin the weel again and hope for the best...

Your opinion is much appreciated Wink


Tough one! ha! Anyway, If I own that portfolio, I wouldn't sell anything right now. Why? If I sell those altcoins and buy bitcoins, I would only gain about 20% once bitcoin has reached $10000, and I assume that profit wouldn't even cover your loss. Now, those altcoins would definitely go up next year once the bitcoin price stabilizes. One thing is for sure, people doesn't want their money to be stagnant. So once it happens, people will go back to altcoins and trade...

After you have recovered from your loss, I strongly suggest that you sell those altcoins immediately, then buy bitcoins, and forget about it. Put it in a hard wallet and move on with your life... if you feel the itch of trading, then trade using fresh fiat. That will give you a red light, then take your time, soon the itch will be gone. hahaha!

Take my word, son - there is no other way to get rich in crypto rather than buy bitcoins and HODL! You may hear some genius advice from people telling you how to trade successfully, some will even give you awesome tips... but keep this in your mind, YOU ARE NOT THEM, AND THEY ARE NOT YOU...whatever works for them doesn't mean will work for you.

But one thing is for sure, BTC will keep its price raising every year, and every year... so again, BUY BITCOIN AND FORGET ABOUT IT. cheers.
Stoukie
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November 23, 2017, 02:41:50 PM
 #5

I love it, thank you for the replies guys and... girl... I think...

That is why I love posting on a forum, people with different opinions, different point of views.

@faimloup - Thank you for the advise, yes going top 5 would be be 'safest' option, less risk, but less reward... As you could deduct from my post I like spinning the wheel  Grin

@EXtremeAEX - Interesting thank you, I understand the alts with lower volumes the past couple of days mean they are slowly dying and could potentially bottom out, meaning take the loss now while you still have some money... Will look into that thank you...

@no0dlepunk - Thank you for the reply, you seem to be very passionate about your advice, I like it!!! Hmmm, interesting point about the 20% gain when bitcoin gets to $10 000, did not think about it that way, also if I sell all alts and BTC drops then my (yes I said 'my', it's not my friends  Roll Eyes) whole portfolio drops...

"Take my word, son", reminds me of a American movie I watched the other day, can hear the accent in my head, love it!!!

I'm not doing anything rash now, I agree, when bitcoin goes sideways is when alts move up, so I will wait... Maybe I should buy a fraction of a bitcoin for myself for Xmas to play with... Yeah, to keep the itch away  Embarrassed
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November 23, 2017, 04:08:41 PM
 #6

it is a very tough scenario because you are practically describing a situation where someone is trapped deep and has to dig himself out!

and sometimes, it really depends on the altcoins, how long has it passed from the last pump and dump. and is there anything coming to that altcoin.

in most cases when the altcoin is dumped, there is no way back up to the ATH of the previous big pump it had. selling in these cases may be a lot wiser than keep holding.
but also at the same time, there may be a long time after the previous pump. the altcoin may be at the very bottom when you come back. and that means selling at the bottom! there may also be another pump soon. so holding for that pump may be wiser.

someone may say you are already in the ditch, you can't get any deeper so wait for it to recover a little and then sell to at least cover some part of your loss.
someone else may say you are in a ditch, sell now and use the funds in other rising altcoins to build a ladder to come back up and cover "all" of your loss.

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November 23, 2017, 04:45:05 PM
 #7

Good day all,

I'm in two minds currently and need someone to soundboard my idea against, what better place than on this forum Cheesy

What would you have done if you were in the following situation, this is obviously all hypothetical.. I'm asking for a friend  Roll Eyes

About 3 months ago you bought a few alts, say XRP, OMG, TRIG, NEO... ABY, SC, NBT etc. Now 3 months ago BTC was around $3200, you bought without putting any stop losses on your investments (noob error I know, I'll tell my friend  Roll Eyes), today you log into your account, BTC is $8200 (more than double) and your alts have bled, bled badly. For example TRIG drop -300%, OMG drop by more than half of the price you bought ect.

The situation does not look that bleak really as the price of Bitcoin more than doubled, so even though your Bitcoin bag almost halved (quantity) the USD equivalent is still stable, meaning your investment in USD was $XYZ, it's still $XYZ, just a fraction less in value... If you withdraw now your initial investment would be save.

Now the reason you entered into alts and traded with BTC as a trading pair was to increase your BTC bag, buy alts low, sell alts high, take profit in means of BTC and thus increase your overall BTC bag (quantity).

Now at this point in time you have 2 options:

Option 1: HODL, hold your alts, ride out the wave, do not sell your alts until they at least break even of make a 5% profit (quantity). This is a long-term choice as it could take months if not years...

Option 2: Sell your alts now, take the BTC loss (quantity) while the alts are bleeding and the streets are running with blood.

Now Option 2 has a A and B section, Section A, reinvest your BTC in alts again while they are in the dip (yes possibly make the same mistake). Section B, keep you BTC in your wallet, with the fork coming in December BTC should just increase...

To hold you alts is the obvious answer (I think), but what if you are itching to trade... Itching to spin the weel again and hope for the best...

Your opinion is much appreciated Wink


Tough one! ha! Anyway, If I own that portfolio, I wouldn't sell anything right now. Why? If I sell those altcoins and buy bitcoins, I would only gain about 20% once bitcoin has reached $10000, and I assume that profit wouldn't even cover your loss. Now, those altcoins would definitely go up next year once the bitcoin price stabilizes. One thing is for sure, people doesn't want their money to be stagnant. So once it happens, people will go back to altcoins and trade...

After you have recovered from your loss, I strongly suggest that you sell those altcoins immediately, then buy bitcoins, and forget about it. Put it in a hard wallet and move on with your life... if you feel the itch of trading, then trade using fresh fiat. That will give you a red light, then take your time, soon the itch will be gone. hahaha!

Take my word, son - there is no other way to get rich in crypto rather than buy bitcoins and HODL! You may hear some genius advice from people telling you how to trade successfully, some will even give you awesome tips... but keep this in your mind, YOU ARE NOT THEM, AND THEY ARE NOT YOU...whatever works for them doesn't mean will work for you.

But one thing is for sure, BTC will keep its price raising every year, and every year... so again, BUY BITCOIN AND FORGET ABOUT IT. cheers.
I think that logic could be a little bit flawed... There is absolutely no guarantee that his portfolio will go up in value next year, like you say.
Altcoins have been doing pretty bad compared to Bitcoin for some time now, who's to say that that will change significantly next year?

I've traded most of my altcoins for Bitcoin and haven't regretted it, though I did so early enough. I think I would still do it in his case, just because I believe more in Bitcoin than in those altcoins.

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November 23, 2017, 08:37:32 PM
 #8

Well if you go to the gold times on July in when altcoins were upto x2 of the bitcoin actual price at the moment, it was just a glory time for making a lot of bitcoin without a lot of effort.
Each siacoin was around 400 satoshis each one, and it was probably x2 less money than atm's price, but bitcoin was cheap, so all the altcoins had a big bitcoin value.
Dogecoin was upto 200 satoshis, and now it is below 25 sat/each one of them.
So if someone invested in those moments, and are still holding those coins, then maybe they are still on a huge loss, but in terms of fiat, they are earning a lot (but lossing a lot of bitcoin too).

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