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中国房地产新时代:民企退居二线,国企再领风骚?
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中国房地产新时代:民企退居二线,国企再领风骚?
November 23, 2017, 04:33:43 PM
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近年来,民企在房地产领域风头正劲,但分析认为,最利于民企发展的大环境已经结束,国企将在下半年起独领风骚。中国指数研究院日前发布报告,碧桂园、万科、恒大三家企业在今年上半年的销售额突破两千亿大关,保利、绿地、中海、融创的同期销售额则突破千亿大关,这七家企业均被列为“超级阵营”,该阵营平均销售额增长39.26%,达1848亿元,为销售额同比增长率最高阵营。其中,位居销售榜首的碧桂园业绩暴涨140%。(图片来自中国指数研究院房企销售报告)据中信证券分析师陈聪、张全国统计,2015年以来,地产公司中一些民营企业销售成长较快。2016年初开始的18个月,即本轮周期中市场运行最佳的阶段,民营龙头公司销售额比2014年起的18个月要上涨了139%。但国企龙头公司则只增长了73%。中信证券补充称,统计中的民企包括碧桂园,中国恒大,龙湖地产,华夏幸福,万达,金科,融创,新城控股,荣盛发展,雅居乐,世茂房地产,绿城中国,富力地产,旭辉集团,蓝光实业,阳光城,复地集团,融侨,佳兆业,合景泰富;混合所有制企业含:万科,绿地控股,金地集团和远洋集团;国有企业则包括保利地产,招商蛇口,华润置地,中国海外发展,中国铁建。(图片来自中信证券研报)中信总结称,上述现象的出现并非偶然,原因如下:第一、全社会资金充裕。房地产企业的资金成本普遍较低,且境内的债券市场向房地产公司敞开。国有企业的融资成本优势因此不太明显,一些规模较大的民营企业同样享受了极低的资金成本。第二、 三四线城市热销,热点城市面临较为严厉的调控政策。一二线城市项目盈利的关键是控制土地成本,但三四线城市盈利的关键则是控制建安成本。相对来说,民企的流程控制能力往往更强,非地价成本控制可能更为得力。第三、 房价整体向上,基本没有波动。在房价持续上升的背景下,企业积极拿地拓展更加重要。民企一般来说决策流程更短,对地方授权更加充分,也更有可能积极拓展土地储备。国企下半年起再领风骚?但是,在中信证券看来,民企销售成长较快的情形在下半年开始并不能持续,最利于民企发展的大环境已经结束,而更加适合国企成长壮大的环境开始出现:第一、 全社会资金成本开始上升。资金成本的上升,一般都会伴随着大国有企业资金成本优势更加突出。同时,这也意味着民企很可能再次遇到融资难,融资贵的情况。第二、 随着资金成本的上升,三四线城市尽管还能维持热销局面,但毕竟很难持续超预期。一二线城市存在预售管制,新房价格低于二手价格,因此虽然市场状况不佳,但只要企业推盘积极,销售去化可能没有问题。第三、 价格已经不再是土地市场唯一的决定因素,龙头房地产公司在新的土地市场竞争中更占优势。第四、 房价开始结构性分化和波动。一味加高杠杆,高举高打,可能也意味着风险。相对而言,维持较低的杠杆率的企业可能更加有利。
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