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美国EIA原油和汽油库存骤降 油价短线拉升 WTI重回46美元
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Topic: 美国EIA原油和汽油库存骤降 油价短线拉升 WTI重回46美元 (Read 117 times)
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美国EIA原油和汽油库存骤降 油价短线拉升 WTI重回46美元
November 23, 2017, 05:30:58 PM
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据美国能源信息署EIA官方统计,美国6月30日当周商用原油库存骤降629.9万桶,为十三周以来的第十次下调,好于预期的降幅200万桶,也远好于前值新增11.8万桶,并同美国石油协会API的预期相符。美国石油交割地库欣地区的原油库存减少133.4万桶,好于前值的降幅29.7万桶,库存地区的原油库存已降至年内新低5948.9万桶。汽油库存大减366.9万桶,是预期降幅180万桶的两倍,也是前值降幅89.4万桶的4倍。这一数据已连降三周,符合市场对北美夏季驾驶高峰期的用油需求抬升预期。精炼油库存减少185万桶,好于预期的新增50万桶和前值降幅22.3万桶,并已连降两周。当周的精炼厂设备利用率新增1.1%,大于预期的增加0.5%和前值减少1.5%,炼解活动的提升部分缓解了成品油库存的积压问题,对油价形成利好。将上述数据加合后得知,上周的库存减少总量为1340万桶,创去年9月以来最大降幅。不过库存总量仍比去年同期高出900万桶,比10年均值高出1.57亿桶。上周库存的减少部分是由于进口石油数量从800万桶/日降至770万桶/日,比过去四周均值减少1%。数据发布后,WTI原油期货短线上扬78美分,刷新日高46.52美元/桶,日内涨幅扩大至3%,随后涨幅稳定于2.6%,至46.30美元/桶。布伦特油价也短线拉升60美分,刷新日高49.18美元/桶,涨幅一度扩大至2.7%,随后涨幅稳定于2.4%,重回49美元/桶下方。但在油储回落之际,美国油产摆脱热带风暴Cindy的临时影响,重新大幅上扬。本土48个州在6月30日当周的石油产量新增10.5万桶/日,至891.5万桶/日,创2015年8月以来新高。这代表美国整体油产也重回2015年8月的高位,并站稳930万桶/日的关口。此前6月23日当周的油产曾创去年8月以来的最大单周降幅。昨日的美国石油协会API油储数据利好,扭转了油价在周三日盘间的颓势。据API统计,上周的原油库存减少580万桶,库欣地区库存减少140万桶,汽油库存减少570万桶,只有精炼油库存预计再涨40万桶。可见API对原油和成品油库存的统计都与美国EIA官方数据相符,一改往日悲观情绪,美国汽油期货也上涨2.5%。空头暴击之后 投行下调今明两年油价预期华尔街见闻曾提到,原油市场本周遭遇空头的重击,周三(7月5日)布伦特原油下跌3.7%,一度跌破48美元/桶关口;WTI油价深跌4%,险些跌破45美元/桶。除了受到美国油产复苏的持续压力外,俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表态7月会议不支持OPEC协议扩大减产幅度,也造成投机者恐慌抛售。在经历了近20年来最差的上半年表现后,陆续有投行下调今明两年的油价预期。继高盛和法兴银行之后,美银美林认为,OECD地区的原油库存仍比五年均值高出30亿桶,利比亚、尼日利亚和美国油产复苏,都将延缓全球去库存速度。因此将今年的布伦特目标价格下调至50美元/桶,将2018年的布油价格下调至52美元/桶,降幅均为4美元。为机构投资者提供研究服务的Bernstein Research对明年的油价更为悲观,将今明两年的布伦特价格预期都下调至50美元/桶,降幅分别为10美元和20美元,理由是美国页岩油产涨势迅猛。丹麦盛宝银行认为,伴随夏季驾驶高峰期的用油需求强劲,油价有望在最近几个月涨至55美元/桶,但到年底前和明年将重新回落。特别是当明年3月OPEC和俄罗斯决定不再减产之后,油价的降幅将更快。
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