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比股债双杀更可怕的事:债市“血洗”才开始
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Topic: 比股债双杀更可怕的事:债市“血洗”才开始 (Read 66 times)
zaa972
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比股债双杀更可怕的事:债市“血洗”才开始
November 23, 2017, 06:08:36 PM
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比接连股债双杀更可怕的,是数据显示“聪明钱”在大批撤离,“债券之王”预言,债市遭血洗的惨剧才刚刚拉开帷幕。延续上周股债齐跌,本周四,10年期德国国债收益率2016年1月以来首度升破0.5%至0.56%,同期美债收益率收涨2.3713%,逼近八周来高位。当日欧美股市普跌,纳指标普双双收跌约1%,道指大跌约150点。而“债券之王”、管理资产规模1090亿美元的DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach周四预计,10年期美国国债收益率今年有望涨至3%,若涨到3%,会让美债“确定”进入熊市。美国媒体指出,当前美联储正考虑进行年内第三次加息并启动缩表,欧洲央行可能年底以前缩减QE,基本面并不令人鼓舞。美债收益率逼近关键技术位可能触发新一轮长债抛售,美债收益率有进一步走高的风险。周四当天,10年期美债收益率一度涨至2.39%,距关键回调位2.42%一步之遥。30年期美债收益率收报2.9055%,仅比100日移动均线低5个基点,盘中突破50日和200移动均线至2.92%。另外,CFTC数据显示,以净多仓规模看,投机者近几周看多30年期美债期货的程度为年内之最。而美国媒体称,6月28日上周四以来,9月上市长债期货的未平仓合约规模减少3700万美元,这是多头开始平仓的信号。华尔街见闻此前提到,评论本周四的债市大抛售时,有分析师认为仿佛2013年的美联储暗示退出QE引发的“削减恐慌(Taper Tantrum)”重演。上周四欧美市场上演股债双杀后,华尔街见闻就提到,这轮股债双杀的背景是,上周从美国、欧洲、英国到加拿大,全球四大央行纷纷释放鹰派信号,市场对全球央行紧缩货币政策在即的预期突然窜升。(详见:《2013年重演?全球央妈点燃“削减恐慌”》)FTN Financial Capital Markets的策略师Jim Vogel则形容,本周四10年期德债收益率创新高如同“决堤”,10年期国债期货市场迅速涌现卖单,一时间血流成河。Brean Capital的宏观策略主管Peter Tchir指出,今年投资者买入长期国债作为股票投资组合的对冲,这就是市场如此惨烈的原因,这些投资者现在股债双线亏损,正在紧急逃离长期美债。
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