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经参:下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改
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Topic: 经参:下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改 (Read 116 times)
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经参:下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改
November 23, 2017, 06:16:09 PM
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编者按:从央行的表态和目前市场的情况分析,在监管层有意推动金融“降杠杆”、防控金融风险的大背景下,今年的货币政策很可能维持“紧平衡”不会转向,“过紧日子”将是贯穿金融机构一年的主题。从流动性角度来看,在刚刚过去的6月,资金面并未出现市场预期中较为明显的吃紧,7月资金面仍面临一定压力。数据显示,7月上旬和中旬各有2100亿元和2800亿元逆回购到期,而MLF在7月全月有3575亿元到期。7月资金可能面临“前紧后松”局面。本文来自新华社旗下媒体《经济参考报》,文章原名《下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改》。以下为原文:2017年已进入下半段,市场人士对于下半年货币政策的走势高度关注。本周,央行先后发布了货币政策委员会第二季度例会新闻稿、《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》和《中国人民银行年报(2016)》,均明确“将实施好稳健中性的货币政策。”与此同时,央行反复强调“把防控金融风险放在更加重要的位置”。业内人士表示,从央行的表态和目前市场的情况分析,今年整体的货币政策将保持“不松不紧”不会转向,去杠杆和防风险仍将是政策重要的考量因素。从流动性角度来看,在经历了6月的平稳过渡后,7月资金面仍面临一定压力。展望全年,流动性的总基调将为“紧平衡”,“过紧日子”也将是贯穿金融机构一年的主题。日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会2017年第二季度例会强调,实施好稳健中性的货币政策,综合运用多种货币政策工具,维护流动性基本稳定,引导货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长。央行于7月4日发布的《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》也重申上述观点,要实施好稳健中性的货币政策,保持流动性合理适度、基本稳定,为实体经济发展营造良好的货币金融环境。而在7月5日发布的《中国人民银行年报(2016)》中,央行行长周小川致辞称:“2017年是实施‘十三五’规划的重要一年和推进供给侧结构性改革的深化之年,央行将保持货币政策审慎和稳健,为稳增长和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。”与此同时,《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》称,要把防控金融风险放到更加重要的位置,加强系统性风险监测与评估,下决心处置一批风险点,完善存款保险制度功能,探索金融机构风险市场化处置机制,确保不发生系统性金融风险。7月6日发布的《2016年中国金融市场发展报告》由中国人民银行上海总部组织相关部门的专家学者共同撰写,该报告也指出,2017年我国金融市场工作也将不断加强监管,把防控金融风险作为重中之重,切实防范化解金融风险,守住不发生系统性金融风险底线。基于央行最近的表态,业内人士预期,下半年货币政策不会转向。中信证券固收研究首席研究员明明在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,货币政策仍将保持“不松不紧”,一方面因为去杠杆已经取得阶段性成果,且银监会下一步监管力度松紧程度尚未可知,没有进一步收紧的必要。另一方面,最近公布的实体经济数据也显示国内宏观经济存在一定的韧性,不存在刺激经济而放松货币政策的需要。中国银行国际金融研究所研究员李佩伽也对记者说,下半年的货币政策还和市场流动性变化有关。一些国内和国际因素可能导致市场有流动性补充的需求,但是考虑去杠杆在攻坚阶段不能转向,货币政策还会是中性略紧的状态。“在承受范围之内,货币政策可能还是会以不变应万变,是否微调还是要看关键时间节点流动性的变化。如果市场利率有所上升,央行可能会加大公开市场操作来进行补充。”她说。实际上,在刚刚过去的6月,资金面并未出现市场预期中较为明显的吃紧。业内人士表示,这与央行加码公开市场操作以及事先同市场进行沟通关系密切。进入7月,大部分市场人士认为仍然不可掉以轻心。数据显示,7月上旬和中旬各有2100亿元和2800亿元逆回购到期,而MLF在7月全月有3575亿元到期,交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员陈冀接受采访时表示,为保持季末流动性稳定所投放的流动性管理工具到期时仍可能给市场带来时点性紧张。他也表示,考虑到二季度末考核时点已过,如果市场流动性保持基本稳定,货币当局在7月可能仅会部分对冲到期的逆回购和MLF,使得市场呈现净回笼态势。明明则表示,7月资金可能面临“前紧后松”局面。在现有的政策基调下,银行间市场资金面“紧平衡”将贯穿全年,而受此影响,对金融机构的各个部门和各种与此相关的金融市场主体而言,“过紧日子”也成为今年的主题。一位大行支行负责人表示,今年从年初开始就感受到了资金的紧缺,目前,不论是对公贷款还是个人贷款,表内额度全面告急。而一位北京地区互金平台负责人则表示,目前网贷行业综合利率明显升高,很多平台只能依靠“加息”来吸引投资人。业内人士表示,今年的“紧平衡”与监管层有意推动“降杠杆”密不可分,未来货币政策在推进去杠杆时,在方向不动摇的基础上,也会更加注重力度和节奏。
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经参:下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改
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