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达里奥:一个时代已经终结 另一个时代正在开启
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Topic: 达里奥:一个时代已经终结 另一个时代正在开启 (Read 116 times)
zaa972
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达里奥:一个时代已经终结 另一个时代正在开启
November 23, 2017, 06:18:43 PM
#1
全球最大对冲基金的创始人宣布,宽松时代已经告终。桥水基金创始人达里奥周四表示,我们现在的状况是:长达九年的持续压低利率、注入流动性,来创造资金驱动经济和市场的时代宣告终结,短期债务周期末期开启。现在应该做的是,“继续载歌载舞,但逐渐接近出口,并随时留意警钟何时响起”。敏感的市场已经开始反应,债市决堤,科技股重挫,高利率背景下只有金融股依旧上涨。更多全球市场表现,详见《十年宽松一朝收紧 全球市场“大转换”才刚开始》。今年5月,达里奥曾发表评论指出,未来一到两年不会出现重大经济风险,但长期经济前景堪忧,担心下一次崩溃可能会产生比目前更大的社会和政治冲突。达里奥并不认为目前会发生大型债务泡沫的破灭,主要因为过去几年资产负债表逐渐修复,但“我们确实看到日益加剧的‘大挤压’”。以下为达里奥在Linkedin上的博文,由华尔街见闻编译。在过去的九年里,央行把利率压到零,注入了大量的资金,让流动性变得充裕。这些行动抬升了资产价格,把名义利率压到低于名义增长,让现金的实际利率转为负值,实际的债券收益率则降至零水平。这带来了漂亮的去杠杆,修复了资产负债表,使得经济状况更趋正常。信贷和经济,以及债务的增速,都维持着良好的平衡逐步上升。这个时代已经过去了。央行们已经清晰明了地告诉我们,往后,由他们倾注的流动性将不再上升,而是会逐渐消退——也就是说,政策的方向转变了,我们现在的状况是:1)长达九年的持续压低利率、注入流动性,来创造资金驱动经济和市场的时代,宣告终结2)短期债务周期(或正常商业周期)末期的开启,在这个时点上,央行开始尝试着以一定的速度收紧(这绝对是正确的,它能让增长和通胀不会过热也不会过冷),直到他们失手了,给我们带来下一次大衰退了解这种状况之后,我们现在的任务是,继续载歌载舞,但逐渐接近出口,并随时留意警钟何时响起。美好的货币政策一般来说(视国家而定),央行削减大规模的非常规政策是合理的,因为这些政策已经带来了很好的去杠杆。在我看来,在这个发生转变的时点上,我们应该意识到这一成就,并感谢挣扎着贯彻这些政策的央行。他们不得不努力地做这些事情,还更加吃力不讨好。让我们送上谢意。正如你知道的,展望未来,我们并不会很快地挤破大型的债务泡沫(归因于已按部就班实现的资产负债表的修复),尽管我们的确看到了日益加剧的“大挤压”(具体点击此处查看)。
gostop
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Re: 达里奥:一个时代已经终结 另一个时代正在开启
November 23, 2017, 06:24:59 PM
#2
比特币的泡沫也不少啊。 它的价格远远高于它实际的价值了。
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