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共享单车发威?汽油消费量历史首次负增长
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Topic: 共享单车发威?汽油消费量历史首次负增长 (Read 82 times)
dum306
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共享单车发威?汽油消费量历史首次负增长
November 23, 2017, 07:19:32 PM
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本文作者东方证券石化分析师赵辰,来源于“赵辰看周期”,原文标题《共享单车对汽油消费的影响分析》。报告的缘起近期一则新闻很引人关注,国内4月份汽油消费量首现负增长,同比下滑6.3%,环比降幅则达到了8.2%。如果说柴油消费负增长大家已经习以为常的话,汽油消费负增长则让人很难接受。毕竟汽车销量增速还稳定在6%左右,即使考虑到部分库存调节的因素,两者之间也不应出现如此大的背离,我们判断这背后的一个重要原因就是替代能源的影响。去年我国电动车销量增长极快,达到了50.7万辆,保有量也增长至107万辆。如果假设每辆车年行驶里程为2万公里,每百公里耗油10升,则替代140万吨以上的汽油消费,占比1.17%,其影响自然非常直接。但就我个人经验而言,目前发展如火如荼的共享单车虽然市场还未关注,但其实对汽油消费的长期影响也不容小视。由于本人既没有考过驾照,在无人驾驶成熟以前也不打算开车,因此相比新能源车,对共享单车的感触会更深一些。自从装了共享单车,我基本上能蹬车就不打车,哪怕是路演也都以单车为主。这不但节省了费用,更重要的是还用自己的实际行动践行了低碳环保的生活理念。而且我发现共享单车并不光解决“最后一公里”的问题,如果配合地铁还可以解决最后10公里、20公里的问题。以前如果去的地方离地铁口比较远,为了方便一般会选择打车,但现在就可以单车配地铁,很多时候还会更快。另外蹬单车还可以记步,虽没有走路多,但是距离远的话还是相当可观。累计下来的步数可以在支付宝中捐献,支持公益事业,也可以在蚂蚁森林中换取积分用于西北植树,这也是开车或者打车所无法实现的。因此共享单车确实在很大程度上改变了人们的出行方式,但这也变相的降低了汽油的消费量,而下文我们就对其影响做了比较量化的测算。共享单车对汽油影响分析共享单车15年才被推向市场,当年只有245万辆,但16年的短短一年就增长了6倍,达到了1500万辆。今年1季度又翻了1倍,总数超过3000万辆,覆盖了30个大中城市,活跃用户总数也在短短9个月的时间里超过了3000万人。按照必达数据的统计,目前平均出行距离为2公里,如果15%用来替换汽车出行,按照百公里耗油10升测算,则每年可以节省24万吨油,相当于我国汽油消费量的0.25%。虽然这个比例还不是很显著,但是如果用发展的眼光看问题的话,其长期的影响还是不可忽略的。一个典型城市的案例由于今年5月深圳市发布了《深圳市互联网自行车发展评估分析报告》,其中数据非常详实,也给了我们一个很好的微观城市的分析基础。依据其数据,截至今年3月,深圳累计投放单车53万辆、注册用户超1052万人、日均使用量为259万人次、日均骑行总里程为502万公里。而这其中有9.8%出行需求替代了私家车和3.3%替代了出租车,即总计13%替代了汽油消费,如果依照百公里耗油10升测算,则每天可以节省48吨汽油,每年节省1.7万吨汽油。未来发展预测从16年至今,共享单车的发展呈现了星火燎原之势,基本上主要指标都是每个季度就翻一倍。即使我们假设今年增速为400%,明年将为200%,则至18年底,我国共享单车的覆盖人数将达到2.4亿人,相当于我国户籍城市人口的35%。而从使用频率看,过去1年也是快速增长,每天使用一次的比例从23%提升至49.3%。因此目前每天2公里的平均骑行距离的增长空间也很大,如果我们假设活跃客户每天的平均骑行距离提升至5公里,则2.4亿人对应的汽油消费替代量为480万吨,占到目前汽油消费量的5%,这个比例就不能忽视了。
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